Jon Anderson's Outfield Tiered Rankings and Projections

I continue to press forward on my own personal rankings series. Today we tackle the beast that is the outfield. Check out the rest of the series at the links below if you haven't already!

First Base
Second Base
Shortstop
Third Base

Starting at the top, here's that juicy tier one full of first-round talent.

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Tier 1

These are names that will routinely go in the top five of drafts. How you order them has a lot to do with league settings and personal preference. I prefer to lock down steals and batting average early, which puts Betts a step behind the pack since he isn't super-elite in either of those categories. But look, you can't go wrong here - you're getting elite production as long these names stay healthy.

Favorite: Acuna

Tier 2

The upside with these three is not a far step down from tier one, especially in the case of Yelich who was right there with the tier one names before his down 2020 season. You're probably giving up some batting average upside with Bellinger and Harper, and none of these three are likely to steal 20 bags (although all of them are more than capable of doing so). If you're the type to completely ignore 2020, Yelich is your best bet here, and getting him in the second round probably makes you very excited. That's more or less the boat I'm in here. It's also important to note that Harper is a significant gainer in an OBP format with his high walk rate.

Favorite: Yelich

Tier 3

This is the first significant step down in a tier. There are lots of steals and power upside here, but no real five-category threats. The highest upside names are Robert and Tucker with their ability to steal bases, but they are also the most likely busts from this group. The safest bets in my eyes are Springer, Ozuna, and Conforto as they all have pretty strong track records and are prominently displayed in some of the game's best lineups. Those three are probably my favorite in this group, and I find myself more and more taking my first outfielder from this group of guys.

Favorite: Springer
Too Cheap: Conforto
Too Expensive: Tucker
Upside: Robert
Biggest Risk: Judge

Tier 4

Another pretty steep drop-off takes towards the land of specialists. Marte is the last decent five-category bet, but he's never really gone over the top in any category and his upside seems limited with that Marlins lineup around him. Blackmon's price is cheaper than ever, making him a pretty interesting guy to grab as your second or third outfielder, but you're probably not going to get the same run and power production as you have in the past. All-in-all, this is a boring, but productive tier.

Favorite: Castellanos
Too Cheap: Blackmon
Too Expensive: Grisham 
Upside: Castellanos
Biggest Risk: Grisham

Tier 5

McNeil and Rosario are the only hopes of good batting average here, as there are lots of high strikeout rates and low walk rates here. Gallo is the most interesting name after his price has completely bottomed out after his brutal 2020 season, but getting a guy with 40 projected homers way down at pick 165 is pretty interesting, especially for an OBP league.

I really like the upside of Hernandez and Kepler, and Meadows feels too cheap after his injury-riddled 2020 season. This isn't a very far step down from the previous tier, so it makes sense to wait a bit in the draft and grab one of these names to add to your outfield.

Favorite: Kepler (just way too cheap)
Too Cheap: Kepler / Meadows
Too Expensive: Hernandez
Upside: Hernandez
Biggest Risk: Gallo

Tier 6

It gets pretty tough to rank at this point, as there are just so many outfielders out there all doing different things. The stand-outs here are Arozarena, who the projections and myself believe to be the most overvalued player in drafts this year. Pham and Schwarber also feel pretty cheap here, and there's some big-time upside with guys like Buxton, Mountcastle, Smith, and Carlson.

Favorite: Laureano
Too Cheap: Schwarber / Laureano
Too Expensive: Arozarena
Upside: Buxton / Aronzarena
Biggest Risk: Gurriel

Tier 7

Playing time questions come up here, but there's plenty of upside to be had. Hampson could be a 30 steal guy, Senzel could turn it around and fulfill some of that prospect promise, and who knows maybe Haniger will get back to doing what he was doing before the disastrous two years he's had with injuries.

Favorite: Mancini
Too Cheap: Mancini
Too Expensive: Robles
Upside: Senzel / Hampson
Biggest Risk: Haniger / Robles 

Tier 8

This is basically just "the rest." You're going to go here for a bench guy and you'll probably be looking for some specific category while you're after it. There's steals upside here (Berti, Margot, Taveras), along with some raw power (Grichuk, Kiriloff, Frazier), and a handful of boring but safe plays as well (Peralta, Canha, Cain). There are also a couple guys that really shoot up the rankings in OBP leagues (Canha and Nimmo). So this is a pretty diverse group of players, all with good chances of being fantasy-relevant, and they need to be rostered in five-outfielder leagues.

Favorite: Canha
Too Cheap: Taveras (late steals, he should at least get a shot at being the lead-off hitter)
Too Expensive: Reyes
Upside: Frazier
Biggest Risk: Kiriloff

Those are the ranks, thanks for reading!

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