RADIO
Eric Samulski identifies outfield prospects who are under-the-radar and could be fantasy baseball sleepers. These rookies are breakout candidates in 2021.
When we talk about prospects, almost everybody wants to gravitate to the names at the top of the various lists; the guys like Wander Franco or Julio Rodriguez. The ones we've deemed "generational talents" or determined will "win you your league." But the issue, as we've seen with Vladimir Guerrero Jr., is that predicting prospect performance at the next level will always be a difficult task. We know the guys who are most likely to help your fantasy team, but just as often it's guys like Randy Arozarena or Trent Grisham who bounce around between organizations or seemingly "fail to deliver" when first given a chance who become the guys that help catapult you to success after we've forgotten about them.
With that in mind, I wanted to take a look at some prospects who are not likely to find their way to the top of many prospect lists but could help fantasy managers this season. Some of them may be raw, high-upside players who can contribute across the board, while others are more one-to-two category assets, but these are names I think aren't getting enough attention. Basically, you're not going to find Jarred Kelenic, Christian Pache, Alex Kirilloff, JJ Bleday, or Drew Waters on this list, but that doesn't mean you should stop reading.
I've also modeled this list based on redraft leagues. These are guys who could be solid late-round draft picks or names you should have at the top of your waiver wire watch list as promotion dates inch closer. There are a lot of other exciting outfielders on many prospect lists who don't get the love and attention they deserve from regular fantasy players, but we're only going to focus on guys who could reasonably be expected to contribute to your fantasy teams in 2021.
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Daniel Johnson, Cleveland Indians
While Johnson doesn't have near the upside of some of the names on this list, we're starting with him because he has the best chance to see the most playing time. In fact, as of this writing, Johnson is projected to be the starting RF on a rebuilding Indians team unless Harold Ramirez earns that job.
The left-handed hitter did nothing in a brief cup of coffee at the major league level in 2020, but he hit .304 with nine HR and six SB in 84 games at AAA in 2019. He's a career .284 hitter in the minor leagues and has a couple of 20-20 seasons under his belt. With full playing time at the major league level, I think he can be a .250 hitter that can put together a 15-HR 15-SB season, which has solid value at the end of your roster.
Leody Taveras, Texas Rangers
Leody Tavares is another less-heralded prospect who could start the season up in the big leagues. The 22-year-old switch hitter had a brief stint with the Rangers in 2020, hitting .227 with four HR in just games. While the power is nice, it's the speed that should be his calling card. After stealing at least 20 bases in three straight minor league seasons, Tavares seems like a good bet for 20-25 steals in a full MLB season. His speed has always led to above-average BABIP numbers, which has historically helped prop up his batting average since he's usually been one of the younger players at any level and needs time to adjust to the improvement in arms.
While I expect Taveras to eventually settle as a .270-ish hitter, I wouldn't expect more than a .250 average from him right away, but he's a plus defender in center field, which will likely keep him in the lineup for the Rangers and give him a strong chance of racking up Runs and Stolen Bases throughout the season. These are the types of picks, with an ADP around 200, that go unnoticed but can do wonders for your team.
Brandon Marsh, Los Angeles Angels
Depending on what prospect lists you use, Marsh may or may not qualify as a back half of the top 50 prospects. Coming into this offseason, he was overshadowed, thanks to the previous hype around other Angels prospects, but he has started to garner a lot of love and attention in the last few months based on his tangible improvements. After changing his stance in 2019, Marsh has kept the OBP skills that were his previous calling card but now shows the ability to hit for power to the pull side. That's a big addition that he can pair with above-average speed to be an all-around contributor in fantasy leagues.
His ability to swipe 15-20 bases while also providing a solid batting average while immediately make him a key fantasy contributor if/when he breaks into a talented Angels lineup. However, the team's additions of Dexter Fowler and Juan Lagares this offseason showed that they aren't quite confident that their young outfielders can handle MLB pitching out of the gate (or are just planning to manipulate service time). Even with that, I expect Marsh, who can play all three outfield spots, to be up in the middle of the season and be a contributor in all five categories for fantasy managers.
Jarren Duran, Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox are not going to be an overly competitive team this year. Yes, they still have a few potent bats in their lineup, but the pitching staff is likely to let them down and even their plethora of one-year deals during free-agency suggest a desire to milk solid first halves and then ship players out for prospects at the deadline. All of which is to say, the second half of the season may be a good time for the team to get a look at some of their top prospects. While Jeter Downs is the name on the tip of everybody's tongue, Duran may be just as interesting for fantasy purposes.
After bursting onto the scene in 2018 with plus speed and hit tools, Duran hit a bit of a wall at Double-A. During the offsite work last year, Durran changed his swing to unlock more power, and it seemed to work.
If Duran can add 15-20 HR power to his strong contact and speed profile, he could emerge as the players we were drafting Victor Robles to be last season, which would be a valuable fantasy asset in all leagues.
Jared Oliva, Pittsburgh Pirates
This one is all about opportunity. The Pirates are clearly in rebuilding mode and are set to start Anthony Alford in centerfield. Alford was once an intriguing Blue Jays prospect, but he is not an MLB starter. That means the Pirates are likely to give Oliva a shot (once they earn another year of eligibility from him). He's not an exciting prospect and certainly won't bring much power to the table, but he does have the wheels to steal 20+ bases (notice a trend), even if he doesn't get called up until May.
With stolen bases increasingly hard to come by, Oliva is not a bad dart throw in deep leagues or draft-and-holds this year, and looks like he'll provide more value in OBP settings than AVG ones.
Brent Rooker, Minnesota Twins
Nelson Cruz re-signing with Minnesota put a bit of a damper on my Rooker love for this season, but I'm going to include him here because the man can flat out hit.
After playing 65 games at AAA in 2019, Rooker will likely start the year on the bench for the Twins as the primary back-up to Cruz and Miguel Sano at 1B while battling top prospect Alex Kirilloff for reps in LF. There's always the possibility that this is the year that Cruz's body begins to fail him, but Miguel Sano has also missed some time with injuries in his career and has a few seasons of dreadful batting averages on the resume as well.
It's unlikely that Rooker flat-out takes the job from him, and even less likely that Rooker beats out Kirilloff, but he's a name to keep an eye on in deep leagues or draft-and-holds. He has a good eye at the plate, which has led to solid OBP numbers to go along with 25+ HR potential. If he finds himself in that dynamic lineup, he's going to be a fantasy asset for whoever can scoop him up.
Josh Lowe, Tampa Bay Rays
Lowe is likely the longest shot on this list because of the way the Rays like to manage their prospects, but he also may have the most upside. After beginning his prospect journey as a 3B, Tampa moved him to the outfield to make use of his power/speed combo, and he took off.
He's stolen a least 18 bases over the last three campaigns and was only one of five players during the 2019 minor league season to hit for 18 HR and 30 SB. Considering Luis Robert and Kyle Tucker were also on that list, it's not bad company to be a part of. Lowe's strikeout numbers have remained high, so he'll need to continue to hone his approach at the plate, but he's a future 20-20 player and the best outfield prospect the Rays have in their system. With Manuel Margot never having truly made good on his promise and Kevin Kiermaier a frequent visitor to the IL, it's certainly possible that Lowe gets a shot by midseason and forms and exciting long-term tandem with Randy Arozarena in the Rays outfield.
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