X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Outfield Waiver Wire Pickups For Week 5

Sam Chinitz's fantasy baseball outfielders who are potential waiver wire pickups for Week 5 of the 2021 MLB season. Consider adding and streaming these free agent OF options.

A brief glance at the lineup notes section of this week’s article illustrates what was a busy week in the MLB, giving fantasy managers plenty of opportunities to get ahead using waivers this week. Although most of the recommendations in this article are longer-term focused, fantasy managers should take advantage of lineup movements for short-term gains as well.

It's still pretty early in the season, so most of the hitters mentioned in previous weeks continue to be worthwhile waiver targets this week -- probably none more so than J.D. Davis (46% rostered). To avoid redundancy, though, I’ve focused on other valuable hitters this week for the most part. It’s also worth calling out that the ball is different this year, and metrics (specifically metrics using exit velocity like hard-hit rate and xwOBA) should be considered in that context.

With that in mind, below are six outfielders worth considering in waivers this week - April 19 through April 25. Roster rates for waiver wire pickups are based on Yahoo! leagues with standard 5x5 scoring, and an outfielder must be rostered in fewer than 50% of leagues to be considered for this article.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Weekly Summary

Who’s Hot?

Player Name Rostered % Week wOBA
Austin Riley 38% 0.598
Brad Miller 2% 0.560
Raimel Tapia 27% 0.524
David Peralta 36% 0.515
Josh Rojas 7% 0.514
Seth Brown 2% 0.504
Guillermo Heredia 3% 0.490
Brandon Belt 10% 0.478
J.D. Davis 47% 0.477
Jordan Luplow 12% 0.465

Rest of Season Projections

Player Name Rostered % ROS wOBA Projection
Brandon Nimmo 48% 0.349
Luis Arraez 46% 0.337
Brandon Belt 10% 0.334
Jordan Luplow 12% 0.330
Joc Pederson 26% 0.328
Aaron Hicks 29% 0.328
J.D. Davis 47% 0.327
Josh Naylor 1% 0.326
Alex Dickerson 16% 0.324
Alex Kirilloff 30% 0.322

Schedule Notes

  • The Yankees play every day this week with four games against a weak Orioles rotation and three games against an arguably just as weak Tigers rotation.
  • The Angels get a pair of unimposing matchups in the Mariners and Rangers.
  • The Royals are slated to face a trio of below-average pitching staffs in the Tigers, Pirates, and Twins.

Lineup Notes

  • The Royals optioned Kyle Isbel (2% rostered) to their alternate site, and he can be dropped in all non-dynasty leagues at this point.
  • Alex Kirilloff (20% rostered) was called up with Miguel Sano (hamstring) landing on the injured list, and Kirilloff should be rostered in most leagues as a result.
  • Joc Pederson (wrist) was placed on the injured list, possibly pushing Nico Hoerner (4% rostered) into semi-consistent playing time.
  • George Springer (oblique) is nearing a return from the injured list, likely denting the fantasy value of Randal Grichuk (48% rostered) or Rowdy Tellez (4% rostered) depending on how the Blue Jays plan to manage their roster.
  • Yonathan Daza (1% rostered) has been picking up semi-consistent playing time with the Rockies lately and is an intriguing option for fantasy managers in need of cheap stolen bases.
  • Anthony Santander (ankle) was placed on the injured list, likely opening up everyday playing time for both Austin Hays (10% rostered) and DJ Stewart (1% rostered) for now.
  • Andrew Stevenson (1% rostered) has picked up more regular playing time with Juan Soto (shoulder) on the injured list, but that arrangement appears likely to be short-lived.
  • Lewis Brinson (0% rostered) has been called up to Miami’s Major League roster with Starling Marte (rib) on the injured list but is likely not worth rostering in most leagues.
  • The Mariners activated Kyle Lewis (knee) from the injured list, relegating Jose Marmolejos (1% rostered) back to a bench role.
  • Andrew Benintendi (44% rostered) has been moved out of the upper-third of the Kansas City lineup, hurting his fantasy value.
  • Brad Miller (2% rostered) has picked up (at least temporary) everyday playing time with Jean Segura (quad) on the injured list and should be a waiver target for fantasy managers in deeper leagues.

 

Shallow League Pickups

Bryan Reynolds, Pittsburgh Pirates

45% rostered

In 2019, Reynolds finished with a .314 batting average that tied him with Charlie Blackmon for the ninth best mark among qualified batters. In 2020, Reynolds struggled at the plate as his xBA dropped from .290 to .227, but he’s bounced back so far this season with a .307 xBA through his first 20 games. Importantly, the areas where Reynolds struggled most last season -- namely, his z-swing rate and his contact quality -- have rebounded to 2019 levels.

The most significant negative to Reynolds’ performance so far this season has been his less than stellar 28% hard-hit rate, but he’s made up for it with launch angle improvements so far, and his .467 xwOBAcon remains strong. Fantasy managers should expect Reynolds’ contact quality to level out over the rest of the season (think a hard-hit rate just below 40% and an xwOBAcon around or slightly above .400), giving him a shot at a .300 batting average and an OPS around .800. It doesn’t hurt that Reynolds appears to be locked into a spot in the upper third of the Pittsburgh lineup, and given his overall performance this season Reynolds should be rostered in most leagues.

David Peralta, Arizona Diamondbacks

29% rostered

Peralta started wearing contact lenses midway through the 2020 season, and the impact has been noticeable. In 2019, Peralta’s reluctance to swing at pitches in the heart of the plate hurt his performance. Peralta was far less reluctant to swing at those pitches in 2020, and his swing rate at pitches in the heart of the strike zone has improved again in 2021. Additionally, Peralta’s chase rate has fallen so far this season, helping fuel career-best strikeout (15.2%) and walk (10.1%) rates.

It’s worth noting that Peralta’s strong start to the season has come with an inflated wOBA (51 wOBA-xwOBA), and that Peralta’s eye issues may not have been a factor in 2019. That said, if the contact lenses drove Peralta’s improved plate approach and the baseline projection for his 2021 season was a batting average around .270 with an OPS around .760, Peralta’s improved plate approach could allow him to hit closer to .300 with an OPS around .800 over the rest of the season, and that upside is enough to make him worth rostering in most leagues at this point.

Kole Calhoun, Arizona Diamondbacks

20% rostered

The only reason Calhoun has been dropped in so many leagues already this season is a knee injury that he suffered in the preseason, but he’s largely put that injury behind him at this point. Calhoun was quietly a phenomenal power hitter over the past few seasons. Hit hit 41 home runs over the past two seasons (206 games), boasting a well-above-average 5.7% home run rate.

That power was enough to get Calhoun drafted in 57% of leagues -- a number that was likely depressed given that his knee injury occurred in early March -- and it should be enough to have Calhoun rostered in most leagues as of this week. The Diamondbacks are understandably being somewhat cautious with Calhoun’s playing time for now, but fantasy managers in need of power production should feel comfortable targeting Calhoun on waivers this week.

 

Deeper League Pickups

Alex Dickerson, San Francisco Giants

15% rostered

If you’ve followed along with this series this season, you’ll know that I’m a big fan of being patient with underperforming hitters early in the season as impatient fantasy managers tend to drop slow-starting hitters based on tiny samples of data. Alex Dickerson may not be as extreme an example as some examples in earlier weeks, but Dickerson is still an attractive buy-low candidate this week. After being drafted in 39% of leagues coming into the season, Dickerson is now available in 85% of leagues despite no red flags in his 2021 performance. 

Beyond not posting any red flags, Dickerson has managed to post a .418 xwOBA that sits well above his marks from either of the past two seasons. Although his plate discipline has been subpar (41% o-swing rate), there’s no reason to expect Dickerson to underperform his draft-day expectations over the rest of the season. The only major downside of rostering Dickerson is one fantasy managers knew about coming into the season: he’s likely locked into the long-end of a platoon for the season, so his playing time is capped somewhat. Still, fantasy managers should feel confident that Dickerson will live up to the expectations they had when drafting him, and he’s an excellent waiver target in deeper leagues as a result. 

Brad Miller, Philadelphia Phillies

2% rostered

Miller was a breakout candidate heading into 2020 thanks to strong power and developing plate discipline and contact skills. Although some bad luck (-28 wOBA-xwOBA) held his performance back last season, Miller still posted a solid .807 OPS for the season and owns a .853 OPS for the past two years. Miller should once again display strong contact quality this season after posting barrel rates around 13% and strikeout rates around 27% in each of the past two seasons, putting him in a fairly exclusive group of hitters.

Since the start of the 2015 season, there have been 66 instances of a qualified hitter posting a strikeout rate below 30% and a barrel rate of at least 13%. Those hitters combined to post an average OPS of .941 (.933 median -- not weighted for playing time), and only 10 of them (15%) posted an OPS below .850. Miller appears likely to remain in that group in 2021 (with the exception of the playing time requirement), and he should be rostered in deeper leagues given that he’s likely to receive significant playing time this week.

Myles Straw, Houston Astros

18% rostered

I considered writing about Jon Berti and Yonathan Daza here, but neither is worth rostering if Myles Straw is also available. Straw remains by far the best option for stolen bases on waivers this season, and only two hitters project for more rest of season stolen bases based on FGDC projections.

Straw’s start to the season at the plate hasn’t been ideal, but he’s already stolen four bases on the season and is in line for more than 25 additional steals over the rest of the season. He’s undoubtedly a single-category contributor, but stolen bases are scarce enough (and Straw is productive enough on the basepaths) that Straw is well worth rostering in deeper leagues.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Advice


Check out RotoBaller's entire fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups and sleepers list, updated daily!




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Logan Gilbert

Leaves Friday's Start With Forearm Tightness

Vikings Select Tai Felton To Finish Day 2

Seahawks Select Quarterback Jalen Milroe With The 92nd Pick Overall

Browns Select Dillon Gabriel 94th Overall

Packers Pick Savion Williams At No. 87 overall

Steelers Snag Kaleb Johnson In Round 3

Broncos Select Wide Receiver Pat Bryant With The 74th Overall Pick

Texans Select Jaylin Noel With 79th Pick

Lions Select Wide Receiver Isaac TeSlaa With The 70th Overall Pick
Jack Leiter

To Start On Sunday

Patriots Add Wide Receiver Kyle Williams In Round 3

Browns Draft Harold Fannin Jr. With 67th Pick
Garrett Mitchell

Makes Early Exit
Luke Keaschall

Removed Early On Friday
Blake Snell

Likely Avoids Major Injury
Cole Ragans

Dealing With Mild Groin Strain

Broncos Add RJ Harvey To Backfield With 60th Pick

Raiders Select Jack Bech With 58th Pick

Chargers Add Wide Receiver Tre Harris In Round 2
Detroit Lions

Lions Acquire 57th Pick From Broncos

Seahawks Draft Elijah Arroyo 50th Overall
Carolina Panthers

Panthers Acquire 51st Pick From Broncos
Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals Snag Will Johnson At No. 47

Jets Add A Pass-Catcher With Mason Taylor At No. 42

Rams Select Terrance Ferguson With 46th Pick
Houston Texans

Texans Acquire 48th Pick From Raiders, Draft Aireontae Ersery

Saints Snag Tyler Shough At No. 40
Brenton Doyle

Out For Personal Reasons On Friday
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Gary Payton II

Iffy For Saturday's Action
Jayson Tatum

Officially Available On Friday For Game 3 Against Magic
Will Smith

Back From Injury On Friday
Luke Kennard

Questionable For Game 4 On Saturday
Darius Garland

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Ja Morant

To Miss Game 4 On Saturday
Rui Hachimura

Available For Game 3 In Minnesota
Aaron Ekblad

Available To Return Saturday
Erik Swanson

Ryan Burr Progressing
Daulton Varsho

To Return On Tuesday At The Latest
Max Scherzer

Takes Positive Step On Friday
Aleksander Barkov

Questionable For Saturday
Gabriel Landeskog

Set For Larger Role In Game 4
Calvin Pickard

To Start Game 3 For Oilers
Randy Arozarena

Resting For First Time This Year
Jonas Siegenthaler

To Play Limited Minutes In Game 3
MLB

Red Sox-Guardians Game Postponed On Friday
Luke Hughes

Remains Out On Friday
MLB

Tigers-Orioles Postponed On Friday
Patrik Laine

A Game-Time Decision Friday
Yainer Diaz

Out On Friday Against Royals
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Hopes To Start Rehab Assignment Next Week
Salvador Perez

Sitting Out For First Time This Season
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 3 On Friday
Brendan Donovan

Back In Action On Friday
Jimmy Butler III

Could Miss Game 3 On Saturday
Coby Mayo

Getting On A Roll At Triple-A
Moises Ballesteros

Riding An 11-Game Hit Streak
Victor Mesa Jr.

Starting Rehab Assignment On Saturday
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Cade Cunningham

Collects Double-Double In Loss
Jalen Brunson

Drops 30 Points In Game 3
Karl-Anthony Towns

Leads All Scorers In Game 3 Victory
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Sergei Bobrovsky

Shuts Out Lightning In Game 2
Cam Fowler

Finishes Thursday's Win With Five Points
Robert Thomas

Posts Four Assists In Game 3 Win
Pavel Buchnevich

Celebrates Hat Trick During Four-Point Performance
Dylan DeMelo

Battling An Illness
Marcus Johansson

Exits Early Thursday
Aleksander Barkov

Hurt In Game 2
Jrue Holiday

Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Rasmus Ristolainen

To Miss Training Camp
Jonas Siegenthaler

Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF