One Adjustment Away: First Strike% and Potential K Risers

March 24, 2020

Dan Palyo looks at starting pitchers who could see their strikeout numbers rise in 2020 based on their first-pitch strike percentage from last season. These are names to be targeted for owners looking for additional strikeouts near the end of the draft.

I'd just like to start by saying that I'm incredibly excited about joining the RotoBaller team this season for MLB and MLB DFS content. We have assembled some of the best fantasy minds in the industry, and I am thrilled to have the opportunity to "geek out" to baseball statistics and try to give you an edge in your season-long leagues and DFS contests. Follow me @ThunderDanDFS for more season-long and DFS content this MLB season.

One statistic that I want to look at today that may be really helpful to locate some pitchers who could improve their strikeout rates this season is first-strike percentage (F-Strike%). The ability to throw strikes early in the count and get out in front of hitters is incredibly important for pitchers. By throwing a first-pitch strike, a pitcher takes control of the count from the start and dictates the at-bat, giving themselves a better chance at a strikeout.

First-pitch strike rates can be found at Fangraphs, along with hundreds of other useful stats. Now, let's find some potential risers for 2020 based on this metric.

Potential Strikeout Risers

One look at the MLB leaders in first-strike percentage from the 2019 season and you'll see a number of elite strikeout pitchers -- Max Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw, and Chris Sale on the top of the list. What I did was scour the leaders in first pitch percentage, looking for pitchers who had only modest strikeout percentages last season. I identified players who had solid campaigns last year and who could possibly see some improvement in their strikeout rates this season if they made an adjustment or two in the offseason.

Here are five players who I think could be undervalued or under-drafted based on my analysis (first-pitch strike percentage in parentheses).

Joey Lucchesi - LHP, San Diego Padres (62.5%)

Lucchesi had a 23% strikeout rate last season, the second-highest of the players listed here. He was slightly worse in 2019 than his rookie year ('18) in just about every way, including a dip in strikeouts, as he had a 26.5% strikeout rate in his rookie season. One of the biggest knocks on him as a starter so far is his failure to pitch deep into ballgames.

Over his 56 Major League starts, he's averaging just over five innings per start. That really hurts his win equity and a chance at earning quality starts, while also limiting his ability to rack up valuable strikeouts. He's doing a good job of getting ahead of hitters, but he needs to do a better job of putting them away and making it through lineups a third time, which is usually where he gets touched up.

Anthony DeSclafani - RHP, Cincinnati Reds (61.2%)

DeSclafani should be part of a really solid pitching staff for the Reds this season, and at times last year flashed some upside, as he allowed one run or less in 15 of his 31 starts. He still struggled with giving up home runs (a tough task when pitching half the time in Cincinnati), but his strikeout and walk rates were solid and he allowed a career-low .238 opposing batting average.

Reds pitching coach Derek Johnson has had a huge effect on the club's staff as we saw Sonny Gray turn his career around and Luis Castillo finally become an ace under his tutelage. I'm excited to see what DeSclafani can do this season if he builds on the improvements we saw from 2018-19.

Zach Eflin - RHP, Philadelphia Phillies (68.2%)

Elfin had the seventh-best first strike percentage last year, just ahead of well-known studs like David Price, Blake Snell, and Clayton Kershaw. Unlike those strikeout kings, Eflin only had an 18.3% strikeout rate last season after posting a solid 22.4% strikeout rate in 2018. The good news is that he maintained a decent walk rate of only 6.8% (exactly the same as '18) and a respectable ground ball rate of 46%. Where he seemed to struggle the most was with the long ball, as he surrendered 1.54 HR/9 last year. That may have been a bit fluky, as his 16% HR/FB ratio was a career-high, suggesting that he may have been a tad unlucky with giving up the long ball.

He had a great start to the year in April and May but struggled enough toward the middle of the season that he was sent to the bullpen for a short stretch. The Phillies really need him to take another step forward this season, as he is being counted on as their fourth starter and the numbers suggest that he should be in a good position to do just that.

Sandy Alcantara - RHP, Miami Marlins (60.4%)

The former reliever turned starter is coming off his first full season in the Majors as he made 32 starts for the Marlins last season. The 24-year-old had a respectable year going 6-14 with an ERA under four. He finished with a below-average 18% strikeout rate while walking almost 10% of the batters that he faced. None of these other pitches probably need to throw a first-pitch strike as bad as Alcantara does. He battled some control issues in the Minors and his 9.7% walk rate from 2019 actually represents some improvement from the season before. Alcantara has not been much of strikeout pitcher at all since being converted to starting, but there are some positive signs that the talented young righty could blossom this season. After all, he did throw two complete-game shutouts last year, whiffing eight batters in both.

The first thing that I noticed is that his strikeout rate jumped from 16% to 20% in the second half of the season, while his walk rate dropped from 11% to 8%. He is a hard thrower, as his fastball averages nearly 96 mph and he relies on a sinker/slider mix, throwing his changeup only 12.1% of the time. If he can pound the zone with strikes, he will not only mitigate his walk issues, he can boost his strikeout rate in a big way. Consider that he struck out 26.8% of the batters that he went up 0-1 in the count on last year versus only 12.7% of those hitters to whom he issued ball one. His walk rate also drops to 7.1% when issuing a first-pitch strike. Overall, he's someone who has shown he can eat innings and hold his own against Major League hitters, and I still believe that he can reclaim the strikeout upside that he has shown in the Minors.

Reynaldo Lopez - RHP, Chicago White Sox (60%)

Lopez is the biggest question mark of the group. With the arrival of Dallas Keuchel and Gio Gonzalez, Lopez projects to open as the fifth starter for the White Sox. He struggled badly at times last season on his way to a career-high 5.38 ERA, but also flashed the upside that we know is there, as he struck out eight or more hitters seven times, including a 14-strikeout gem against the Tigers. He's a hard-thrower with a fastball that sits 95-96 MPH, but he gave up too much hard and medium contact last season and a whopping 1.71 HR/9 innings.

He's a flyball pitcher, so he's going to give up some homers, but he hasn't been consistent enough at keeping guys off base to be giving up that many longballs. After two full seasons as a starter, he has to find a way to keep hitters off-balance, as they are crushing his fastball when they are ahead in the count. The good news is that he's pounding the zone early in the count, so if he can make some adjustments to his approach, then we know he has some big strikeout upside. If he doesn't figure it out, he could be destined for the bullpen despite being a promising prospect at one point.

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