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Michael F. Florio breaks down why RB Khalil Herbert is a great target to acquire in fantasy football dynasty leagues before NFL free agency and the draft.
“Yesterday's price is not today’s price.”
The great Fat Joe once said that, and many other rappers have repeated it since. Fat Joe was also obviously talking about fantasy football – specifically dynasty leagues. Free agency and the draft are set to shake up a ton of players' values, but if you wait for that to happen, you will end up having to pay full price for a player. There’s a risk to acquiring a player now who you think could see a spike in value, but it could end up costing you a whole lot more if you wait.
I am not telling you to just take gambles on a ton of players right now. But what if there was a backup running back who has a shot at being a starter next year? His team is being tied to other running backs, which will likely keep his price in check right now. That to me sounds like a player you should consider buying. And that player is Chicago Bears RB, Khalil Herbert.
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The Case for Buying Khalil Herbert
Khalil Herbert has shown us that he can be a very serviceable back when he is given the opportunity to do so. In his career, Herbert has seven games with at least 13 carries. In those games, he is averaging 15.96 fantasy PPG and 96.7 rushing yards per game. Last season, he ran for 731 yards on 129 carries. He scored four touchdowns and averaged 5.7 yards per carry. He was easily the most effective back for the Bears. Starter David Montgomery ran 201 times for 801 yards, five touchdowns, and 4.0 yards per carry.
But Herbert was not just better than Montgomery last season, he was one of the best backs in the league on a per-touch basis. Herbert averaged 4.3 yards after contact per carry, which led all running backs with a minimum of 100 carries. His 1.4 yards before contact per carry was tied for the eighth-best in that group. Herbert saw 17 percent of his carries go for at least 10 yards. Not only did that lead the NFL, but it was also a full percentage point ahead of the next closest RB, Tony Pollard.
To put it into perspective, only three running backs total were over 15 percent. He also reached 15+ MPH on 19 percent of his runs last season, the ninth-best among running backs. Herbert averaged 0.24 missed tackles forced per attempt, which ranked seventh amongst running backs. His 185 rushing yards over expectation was the fourth-best in the league behind only Nick Chubb, Travis Etienne, and Tony Pollard. He was just ahead of Josh Jacobs and Saquon Barkley. Truly elite company to be in.
As the numbers show, Herbert is a very good runner of the football. Not only does he rank amongst the top of the league on a per-touch basis, but he just straight-up outperformed Montgomery last year. In fact, Montgomery had the slowest top-end speed of any back with 100 carries.
Montgomery is a free agent and while the Bears have the most cap space of any team in the NFL, they have plenty of other needs. Letting Montgomery, who has become a bit of a plodder in recent years, walk and turn over the backfield to the very capable Herbert is very much so in play. The Bears could opt to sign or draft a backup running back and hand the keys over to Herbert, which would greatly improve his fantasy stock.
The question is just how high is Herbert’s fantasy ceiling?
The Upside
We have seen Herbert perform at an RB1 level when David Montgomery missed time in the past and that is exactly what his upside would be if Herbert was to take over the backfield. Even if they were to bring in another back to split touches, Herbert can be a rock-solid RB2 with weekly RB1 upside as the Bears' lead runner.
Last season, Herbert saw 53 percent of his runs go between the tackles, with 47 percent going outside. That was because Montgomery took away a lot of the outside carries. In total, Herbert had 61 outside carries compared to Montgomery’s 113. But despite nearly double the carries, the yardage was almost identical with Montgomery just edging by 469 to 435. On those outside carries, Herbert averaged 7.1 yards per carry and 5.2 yards after contact per attempt. He was not only superior to Montgomery in both categories, but he did in yards before contact and breakaway runs as well.
Herbert was better than Montgomery on inside carries as well, but his numbers were not nearly as impressive. Herbert averaged 4.4 yards per carry, and 3.5 yards after contact per attempt on inside runs. But those were spread much more evenly as he had 68 of those runs – compared to 88 for Montgomery. Leading the backfield would lead to more outside carries, which will naturally lead to more big plays for Herbert.
Additionally, it will lead to more high-value opportunities. Last year, Montgomery saw 20 carries inside the 12-yard line compared to just 12 for Herbert. That was 34 carries in the red zone for Montgomery and 20 for Herbert. Naturally, if Herbert was asked to lead the backfield, it would lead to more chances for touchdowns.
The hope, too, is that it leads to more pass-game usage. Herbert saw just 28 total targets in his first two seasons. Montgomery has more catches than that in each of his last three seasons. He is the superior pass catcher, but we have yet to see Herbert really be asked to operate in that role. While the Bears signing a pass-catching specialist is still in the range of outcomes, Herbert leading the backfield would obviously only help his chances of being used more in the passing game.
Why Buy Now?
The unknown help keeps Herbert’s cost down. Will the Bears re-sign David Montgomery or bring in another high-profile running back? Are the rumors tying them to Bijan Robinson legit? There are many questions surrounding Herbert and the Bears' backfield right now. However, he has shown us that on a per-touch basis, he can compete with the best of them. There is talent here and that alone is worth taking a gamble on.
However, if you wait, and the Bears end up letting Montgomery walk and bring in someone to back up Herbert, that would be the best-case scenario. But if you wait, you will end up having to pay full price, or worse, having to overpay to get a hot asset. And if the Bears keep Montgomery or bring in another back that will play over Herbert, he would be in the same position he is now. Herbert would remain one of the premium backups that would be an injury away from being a weekly starter.
Buying now likely means paying more for Herbert than you would if we knew he was just going to be a backup again. But the difference there is minuscule to the price jump that would occur if he was to be a starter.
Herbert is a very talented running back that is in a position where it is very likely he sees a larger workload in 2023. And if he was to see that larger workload, there is plenty of opportunity for him to breakout. That is exactly the type of player you should roll the dice on and acquire now in dynasty before all the moves start happening.
Make sure to follow Michael on Twitter, @MichaelFFlorio.
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