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Bill Dubiel examines nine National League rookies who could impact their major league club's starting lineup in 2020. Get an edge by targeting these prospects late in your fantasy baseball draft.
Every year, there are those rookies who we expect to make a splash right away; think Kris Bryant, Ronald Acuna, Cody Bellinger, Aaron Judge -- those guys.
Once we make it through all the service time manipulation shenanigans, there are always youngsters ready to snatch roster spots immediately, and 2020 is no exception.
Earlier this week we focused on American League rookies, so now it's on to the Senior Circuit. Below are nine of the National League's top rookies, both at the dish and on the mound. I've ranked them in order of how quickly I expect them to make an impact. While some might take a few weeks or a couple of months to get there, all of these prospects are ready to be difference-makers in fantasy lineups right along with the real-life lineups they burst into.
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Gavin Lux (2B/SS, LAD)
Lux has been one of the most highly-touted middle infield prospects of the last two years, and he's the NL prospect most likely to make an immediate impact in 2020. Lux will likely head into the season as the primary second baseman for the ever-dangerous Dodgers, but it's possible that he'll wind up sitting against lefties, at least, to begin the year.
The lefty-swinging 22-year-old hit 28 homers across three levels last season, while also swiping 12 bags, and I think a 20/10 season is a reasonable expectation for '20. The ceiling is much higher than that, as Lux has plus contact skills in addition to raw power. He also posted an average walk rate over 10% across every level of the Minors, so there is potential that he evolves into an on-base machine as he adjusts to major league pitching. Lux will not be a world-breaking rookie like Bryant or Acuna, but there is a ton of upside over the long haul.
Carter Kieboom (3B, WAS)
With Anthony Rendon off to sunny Los Angeles (of Anaheim), the Nationals will head into 2020 with the third-base job up for grabs. Kieboom, 22, has the highest upside and is likely cemented into the long-term plans for the Washington infield, but in '20, he'll need to contend with veterans Starlin Castro and Asdrubal Cabrera for at-bats. Kieboom shredded at Triple-A last year, slashing .303/.409/.493 while smashing 16 homers and swiping five bags.
That was enough to earn a cup of coffee with the Nats last year, although he was mostly nonexistent across 11 games. Kieboom's got a mature eye and has managed to keep the strikeouts to a minimum -- he posted a 13.8% walk rate with just a 20.2% strikeout rate in Triple-A. That combination, along with middling power, could make him a tremendous leadoff hitter down the line, although stolen bases will never be his forte. Kieboom could start evolving into an everyday asset in '20, but in the early months, he'll need to prove he deserves more at-bats when he's called upon.
Nico Hoerner (2B/SS, CHC)
We've seen very little of Hoerner at any level, so there isn't a ton to analyze when it comes to past performance. What we do know is that he'll be given an opportunity to compete for the starting job at second base for the Cubs in 2020, and while he's got plenty of competition, it's possible that Hoerner is able to rise above them with a strong spring performance. Hoerner filled in admirably in '19 as he was called upon thanks to a slew of injuries, slashing .282/.305/.436 across 20 games with Chicago.
He has almost no power to speak of, but he did make some alterations that allowed him to get more lift in Double-A last year, lowering his ground ball percentage from 57.9% in Class A ball to 41.5% in Double-A. Hoerner stole eight bags in 95 games across three levels in '19, but he probably has a 20-steal ceiling if given an entire season to work with. A solid glove and above-average contact abilities can make Hoerner an everyday No. 8 hitter, but he'll need to fend off David Bote, Daniel Descalso and the recently-signed Jason Kipnis in spring training before he sniffs the starting lineup.
Sixto Sanchez (SP, MIA)
This fireballing youngster could be the next great starter to roll out of Miami for a number of reasons. His fastball touches 100 mph, but surprisingly, strikeouts are not Sanchez's bread and butter. The 21-year-old has displayed an uncanny ability to keep the ball down at all levels he's played at, posting above-average ground ball rates and exceptional home run rates (0.44 HR/9 in Double-A). He's able to achieve this by complementing his fastball with an outstanding changeup, and has a developing slider and curveball that could eventually evolve into put-away pitches.
With plus control, a dominant fastball, an array of effective secondary pitches, and the maturity to keep the ball down, Sanchez could be a top-level starter for a long time in the majors. I don't expect that time to start until May at the earliest, as he could certainly use some seasoning in the upper minor leagues and the Marlins likely aren't making a charge for the playoffs in 2020.
Brendan Rodgers (SS/2B, COL)
We may have seen Rodgers starting at the keystone on Opening Day if not for a torn labrum that was surgically repaired in July. As it stands, it looks like he'll start the season on the shelf while some combination of Ryan McMahon and Garrett Hampson keeps the spot warm for him.
Rodgers is definitely the long-term play at the position, as he's got a 20/20 pedigree and has spent the last few seasons in the minors spraying the ball around while keeping his strikeouts down (~18% K-rate) and his batting average up. It may be July by the time we see Rodgers not only healthy but back in the swing of things. He should be ready to contribute immediately despite the woeful lack of production we saw in his limited time last year.
Alec Bohm (3B, PHI)
The Phillies have moved on from Maikel Franco and are currently searching for the long-term answer at third base. As of this writing, Scott Kingery should start there to open the 2020 season. Kingery has flashed some brilliance in the majors, although he's ultimately come up short of expectations. Breathing down his neck is Bohm, the big-bodied 23-year-old who has been decimating minor league pitching for the last two years.
The 6-foot-5 righty has displayed tremendous power and contact skills, all while keeping his strikeouts to remarkably low benchmarks. In '19, he struck out in just under 15.0% of his at-bats, while walking in more than 10%. That kind of plate discipline combined with prodigious power is going to be hard to contain to the minors and I anticipate that we see Bohm making an impact as early as July.
Dylan Carlson (OF, STL)
Carlson had a true breakout season in 2019, as he smacked 26 homers and stole 20 bases between Double-A and Triple-A while hitting a robust .292. With manageable strikeout rates and a decent eye, that certainly looks like a player ready to make an immediate impact. He will get the opportunity to win an everyday outfielder gig, but he'll need to beat out Harrison Bader and Tyler O'Neill to do it. Carlson is just 21, so there is no rush to get him to the bigs, and we'll likely see that play out this year.
If he is able to follow up his big '19 with a comparable spring though, Carlson may be pushing for big-league at-bats as soon as May. It's simply difficult to take one breakout season as gospel, especially after watching his ISO spike from the mid-.100s to well over .250 in one year. The Cardinals are likely to take the same approach that you should and will wait to see if it's for real.
Christian Pache (OF, ATL)
Pache has worked his way up through the minors since 2016 after being signed as an international free agent at just 16. Now 21, the hype is building around this five-tool stud who many are considering to be the "next" Acuna. After beginning his career as an extremely light-hitting speedster, Pache has begun to develop some power. He popped 12 homers in '19 between Double-A and Triple-A and kept his batting average above .275 for the year.
His speed is entirely real, as he proved with 32 stolen bases in 119 games at Class A in '17. Pache profiles as a 20/20 threat with plus contact skills, a tremendous center-field glove and a cannon for an arm. He is not quite ready for the big leagues yet, but if he continues to tear up Triple-A this year, we could see him at some point after the All-Star break.
MacKenzie Gore (SP, SD)
One of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball, Gore has the raw makeup of a future number one starter. At just 21, he's shown incredible potential in the strikeout department, in addition to an above-average ability to keep hitters off-balance. Gore's fastball sits in the mid-90s and he's slowly mastering a mix of curveballs, sliders and changeups. He's posted a walk rate under 9.0% at every level he's pitched at, and that's a big feather in his cap when it comes to sustainable success in the big leagues.
With only 21 2/3 innings above Single-A ball, it's all but certain that we'll see Gore spend the first half of the year getting some seasoning at Double-A and/or Triple-A. The Padres have never been shy about throwing young starters into the fire (think Joey Lucchesi), so I would think that we see at least 50 innings from Gore before 2020 ends. If he's continued to make improvements all season, those could be 50 really strong innings for the home stretch in fantasy.
