Nicklaus Gaut: Bold, Bolder, Boldest Predictions

March 26, 2021

Nicklaus Gaut continues RotoBaller's bold predictions series for 2021 with 8 outside-the-box calls for fantasy baseball.

Ahh, the time-honored tradition of making bold predictions is upon us. We hem and we haw; we make outrageous claims like Adalberto Mondesi invented the question mark, and bicker about the proper definition of "bold".

In the NotBurtatorium (totally a real word), however, we worry not about this or that definition. Our goals are simple and our will is relentless. Be Bold. Get Jiggy Wit It. No more, no less. So without further ado, let's get bold. Eight players, 24 predictions.

Why eight instead of the standard 10? Because eight is my favorite number and I love to count! Ah-Ah-Ah! Let's get weird.

Mike Yastrzemski(s) in the Outfield

Bold: Mike Yastrzemski (140 ADP) finishes as a top-25 outfielder, batting near the top of San Francisco's offense and providing fantasy quality in four categories, even throwing in a handful of stolen bases.

Bolder: Yastrzemski blows his ADP out of the water, finishing as a top-15 OF and ahead of the likes of his ADP superiors like Luis Robert (and his 35% K%), Aaron Judge, and Charlie Blackmon (with their combined 100 games played). How, pray tell? By slashing .281/.357/.535 with 31 HR, 103 R, 91 RBI, with 4 SB. Otherwise known as "exactly what Mike Yastrzemski has done over his first 161 games in the Majors". With numbers like those, it's no wonder that fans start seeing the ghost of his Hall of Fame grandfather in the way he plays.

BOLDEST: Using Hawkeye's new, cutting edge "Ghost Mode", it's revealed that Mike has been cheating with assistance from the literal ghost of his grandfather, Carl Yastrzemski, in what can only be described as a real "Angels in the Outfield"-situation. We probably should've had concerns after one of his infield pop-ups went from being caught by Trevor Bauer to looking like it got thrown over the centerfield wall. But to be fair, Yastrzemski's explanation of "Bauer throws balls over the wall all the time. What do you think, a ghost threw it?" was based on sound logic.

Gary Sanchez Finds a Hit Tool

Bold: For the second time since 2017, Gary Sanchez completely blows past the Mendoza Line, finishing with a .215 AVG, only just missing out on being a replacement-level fantasy asset. So close, Gary. So close.

Bolder: Bravely holding off Kyle Higashioka, Sanchez uses his 20-grade hit tool to rake his way to 30 HR and a .215 AVG. Unfortunately, it also comes with a (barely) career-high 40% K%.

BOLDEST: Ok, ok. I get it. Still not bold enough.  So, let's get absolutely wild and crank the boldness all the way up to 11...Gary Sanchez posts a .235 AVG, with over a .200 xBA. I know, I know. Crazy talk. But we're supposed to get bold, right?

C.J. Cron Goes Rocky Mountain High

Bold: Whoa! C.J. Cron showing up on a bold predictions list? How original, Nicklaus. Well, I was all over Cron last year and still loved him this year even when he was still a free agent...You don't think I'm getting hyped about him signing with Colorado? Hard pass. Cron hits 35 home runs with a combined 170 R/RBI in 2021, easily finishing as a top-10 first baseman.

Bolder: In a land with a dejuiced baseball and more stadiums using humidors, the man with high-end exit velocities and low-end air thickness is king. Cron hits 40 HR and finishes as a top-five first baseman.

A knee injury may have limited him to just 52 PA but in that small-sample, Cron did exactly what his drafters were hoping for in the power department, hitting four home runs (.077 hr/pa in 2020, .50 hr/pa in 2019, .56 hr/pa in 2018) in his brief tenure as a Tiger. He posted a Barrel% that was in the 97th percentile (96th in 2019) and his Air% average EV went from the 95th percentile in 2019 to the 98th percentile in 2020.  And just for fun, his Air% (100+ mph) rose from the 85th to 93rd. I mean, how do we think that plays at Coors? Hmm?

BOLDEST: After hitting 50 home runs and leading Colorado to an improbable wild-card berth (as well as setting up roots in the community with the launch of his C.J. Cron(ic) CBD line) Cron signs a new five-year contract with the Rockies that rolls into a 20-year personal services contract following his retirement. While the homers were nice, the real reason Cron gets locked up Bobby Bonilla-style is the discovery that rubbing his Cron(ic) oil on baseballs completely nullifies the "Coors effect", leading to a Cy Young award for German Marquez and a lifetime commitment from the Rockies for Cron.

Ketel Marte Is off the Rocks

Bold: Cold as ice in 2020 after his breakout 2019 campaign, Marte gets back to serving fools in 2021, straight up. Contributing above-average numbers in four categories, along with an elite batting average, Marte finishes as a top-three option at second base.

Bolder: At the worst (non-catcher) position in fantasy, Marte is once again a revelation, hitting 25 HR, with over 90 R and 90 RBI, while stealing double-digit bases. Finishing just behind Juan Soto in the NL batting race, Marte is the top second baseman in fantasy and a top-20 hitter.

BOLDEST: Marte reveals that the real reason he struggled in 2020 was due to third-degree burns suffered on his hands after spending his pandemic-extended offseason learning how to make artisanal sugared maize. With the burns all healed, not only does Marte get back to breaking out at the plate like it's 2019 but his top-secret recipe for Ketel's Corn is a gigantic success, eventually becoming the official kettle corn provider at all 30 major league stadiums.

Ryan Jeffers Gobsmacks Fantasy

Bold: Ryan Jeffers (441 ADP) is a top-10 catcher after beating out Mitch Garver for the lion share of playing-time in Minnesota, hitting 15 HR in a powerful Minnesota lineup, with a batting average that won't kill you.

Bolder: Jeffers finishes as a top-five catcher, completely supplanting Garver and his Sanchez-ian .200 AVG, hitting 20 HR with a mess of counting stats from the bases always being clogged-up with Minnesota's station-to-station style. Sound unrealistic? Well, small-sample and all but Jeffers hit three home runs in his 62 PA from 2020, posting exit-velocities that are hard to ignore. His Barrel% (91st percentile), Air% average exit velocity (96th), and Air% 100+ mph (96th) all point towards some boom in his stick.

BOLDEST: After going down an Ancestory.com rabbit-hole and discovering his paternal great-grandfather was born in England, Jeffers legally changes his name to Reginald Geoffers III and begins taking at-bats whilst wearing a monocle. Demanding he be referred to as the "Earl of Mash", Geoffers only attends post-game press conferences once he's had time to be properly dressed in full tails by his butler and only answers questions from reporters who are dressed likewise. Any septic tank tossers wearing otherwise get treated to blistering insults delivered only in Cockney rhyming slang.

Peter Fairbanks Proves Tampa Bay Hates Fantasy Players

Bold: With Tampa using a mishmash of closers, Peter Fairbanks and his 15 saves narrowly edge out the 12 of Nick Anderson and 10 of Diego Castillo for the team lead.

Bolder: Tampa Bay goes full swerve, installing Fairbanks as a traditional closer, with Anderson and Castillo settling into high-leverage fireman roles. All other Tampa Bay relievers combine for just five saves, as Fairbanks finishes with 30 saves and as a top-five option in the AL.

BOLDEST: Fairbanks finishes with 30 saves but they all come in five random weeks, as he collects zero saves in all of the other weeks combined. When asked about this oddity in his end-of-season press conference, Rays manager Kevin Cash spends 10 minutes collapsed in hysterical giggles, collecting himself only long enough to sarcastically ask, "Whaddya think about that, fantasy nerds?!"

Tanner Rainey Doesn't Need Saves To Call Fantasy Thunder

Bold: Elite ratios and a pile of strikeouts are more valuable than you think in relievers, even without saves. Especially for those types prone to drafting the Jose Berrios and Sandy Alcantaras of the world. Rainey (579 ADP) goes over 60 IP, with solid ratios, and close to 100 K. Easy-peasy, Bob's your uncle, and Tanner's a top-25 RP.

Bolder: Rainey never fully takes over the closer's job but winds up with near- double-digit saves after occasionally filling in for a struggling Brad Hand and gas can Daniel Hudson. Add those saves to the aforementioned ratios (2020: 2.66 ERA/2.74 xFIP/2.30 SIERA) and strikeouts (2020: 42.7% K%, 21.5 SwStr%) and you make it Rainey with a top-15 RP.

BOLDEST: Brad Hand suddenly retires to pursue his lifelong dream of touring the convention circuit in deep Mr. Hand cosplay, handing the closer role to Rainey, who goes on to finish as the top reliever in the NL. On the other, Hand later necks with a 57-year-old Phoebe Cates in the second-floor ice room of a Day's Inn after sharing a panel with her at the lightly-attended "RidgemontCon" in Rochester, New York. Everybody wins.

Kevin Gausman Hits the Gas

Bold: Coming off of a year in which he ran a career-high 32.3 K% and career-low 1.11 WHIP over 60 IP, and posted a 3.62 ERA that was virtually a career-low, Kevin Gausman (138 ADP) finishes as a top-20 starting pitcher in 2021.

Bolder: Gausman finishes as a top-15 pitcher in 2021, piling up innings and strikeouts with a sub-3.50 ERA and 1.15 WHIP.

In his injury-plagued 2019, Gausman was basically a two-pitch pitcher after totally shelving his slider and throwing his four-seamer and split-finger a combined 95%. The results were ugly, posting a career-high 5.72 ERA and 1.42 WHIP that was his second-highest, even as he ran a career-high 25.3 K%. The slider showed back up in 2020 but mostly only to right-handers, as Gausman reintroduced his changeup, throwing it around 15% and in equal amounts to righties and lefties. Thrown at the same speed as his splitty, the changeup made both of his fastballs more deadly, allowing him to attack batters at the top of the zone with a high-spin heater and at the bottom with two nasty offspeed pitches.

On just a one-year contract with the Giants, don't expect San Francisco to baby a 30-year-old horse who pitched a combined 554 IP from 2016-2018. Being able to count on high usage in this post-pandemic season is a bigger boon than one might expect.

BOLDEST: Set to make $19 million dollars in 2021 and with career-earnings nearing $25 million, Kevin Gausman finally grows the backbone that none of his San Francisco teammates have been able to muster over the last two seasons, rallying the team to boycott playing until Gabe Kapler is removed as manager. Citing Kapler's multiple coverups of sexual assault, attempted witness intimidation, and a general lack of any real remorse (let alone consequences), the Gausman-led Giants refuse to play until Kapler, as well as the man who hired him, general manager Farhan Zaidi, both step down.

What we accept as right and wrong must be stronger than our love of sport and media and allowing enablers to continue leading from the top only puts us all further off the path.  And because when good people do nothing, nothing gets better.

What? You thought we'd end with some more jokes?

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