Nick Mariano's Favorite Fantasy Baseball Picks and His Perfect Draft Using EDV

With most of my drafts in the books and one of the biggest draft weekends now here, it's time to combine the FSWA-award-nominated Expected Draft Values (EDV) series with a list of my most-targeted players. We'll explore some of the players that EDV says are premier buys before breaking down my hypothetical perfect draft and then a table identifying EDV team stacks to target.

EDV takes projected stat lines via my Cutter Projections and pits that against their ADP's expected return. Due to a variety of factors such as name recognition, your fantasy platform's default rank in the draft room, or social media buzz, engrained ADPs can anchor entire drafts and lead folks astray. Let's try to unshackle ourselves from the hivemind using Expected Draft Values.

I'm going to utilize Yahoo ADP with a 12-team format for this article, as it's the platform I play the most on. I hope that next year we can publish an EDV worksheet for you all with a dynamic ADP tool that'll adapt to whichever platform you want to explore. Before we get into the meat of this article, allow me to remind unfamiliar readers what the EDV deal is.

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How Expected Draft Values (EDV) Help You Win

Expected Draft Values (EDV) try to provide concrete answers to those who say, “Player X is a great value at that ADP.”

We've taken historical data and come up with a metric that reliably shows stat lines along the ADP totem pole, with players falling into seven cohorts:

1) HR+BA+SB
2) HR+BA
3) SB+HR
4) SB+BA
5) HR
6) SB
7) BA

We know players don't fall neatly into one bucket of production, but we can read between the lines and apply the appropriate context. What does it take to be a worthwhile power-heavy bat around pick 20? A power-speed threat near pick 40? EDV is not a definitive practice, just as projections are an imperfect science, but it'll sharpen your draft tools.

You can read more about EDV in this Intro To Expected Draft Values article, which was nominated for FSWA's Best Research Article award.

Key EDV Players Who I Love to Target

First, I’m going to limit our scope to players who qualify for the beautiful BA+HR+SB trifecta. These are the studs who should lift your entire outlook. The EDV threshold is the higher and projections typically don’t capture high-end players well, so don’t read much into negative scores (though it makes the good scores pop!). Qualifying for this cohort is the highest honor.

So, 18 players fall into this bucket going into 2024, and 10 of them go within the top 18 picks on Yahoo. Only three of them return positive EDV values. Ronald Acuna Jr. torches everyone with a whopping +60 EDV, then there’s Freddie Freeman (+8) and Juan Soto (+2). Jose Ramirez (-3) and Bryce Harper (-1) are very close to the green as well.

Michael Harris II (+5) is the only one in the third round, with Bo Bichette (+29) and Jose Altuve (+24) popping in the fourth. Then we aim for Royce Lewis (-4) around the 5-6 turn before a surprising lull. It isn’t until about Round 9 when Xander Bogaerts (+12) and Seiya Suzuki (+25) appear. Then it’s Round 12-13 for Josh Naylor (+15) and finally, Riley Greene (-6) down in Round 13.

Naylor is probably my most drafted player from the first 15 rounds. The 26-year-old had a .293 xBA underneath the .308 average last year and has plenty of potential should a fully healthy season bless us. He popped 17 home runs with 10 steals and 97 RBI in just 121 games, as sufficient volume could propel him into a tier of Paul Goldschmidt production, or even higher.

Player A: 300 PA, 31 R, 83 H, 18 2B, 10 HR, 60 RBI, 18 BB, 49 K, 5 SB, .301/.340/.475, 125 OPS+

Player B: 357 PA, 37 R, 87 H, 18 2B, 12 HR, 52 RBI, 30 BB, 55 K, 4 SB, .274/.347/.445, 123 OPS+

Player B is AL All-Star Vlad Guerrero Jr. Player A is Josh Naylor.

— Ben Teaford (@THE_Ben_Teaford) July 3, 2023

Moving on from the BA+HR+SB cohort, let’s wade into the 50 or so ballplayers who belong in a dual cohort (BA+HR, HR+SB, BA+SB). Roughly 10 of them carry negative EDV scores, with another five close to zero (neutral?). In the end, half of that 50 is a cushy +9 EDV or more.

Shohei Ohtani is in the thick of this gambling scandal and his ADP may slip as remote concerns regarding a suspension eat away at drafters. But he’s got the highest EDV score (+24) as a plus in all five traditional categories. Even if I artificially bump his projected batting average up a few points to hit the BA+HR+SB cohort, he’s still over +20. The UTIL burden can be tough, but his bat is well worth the first-round price tag.

Other early buys in a vacuum would be Rafael Devers (+10), Francisco Lindor (+9), Corey Seager (+18), and Marcus Semien (+21). Devers and Seager are also one of a couple who genuinely boost your batting average.

Seager is of particular interest, as he may be ready for Opening Day but just enough drafters in your room may still let him slide toward pick 30. Do what you’re comfortable with regarding injury risks, but he’s poised to smash within Texas’ stout order.

Then a trio of middle infielders is available around pick 50: CJ Abrams (+14), Nico Hoerner (+22), and Oneil Cruz (+23). Abrams is extremely polarizing but there’s no doubting the elite form shown after gaining leadoff duties last year.

Hoerner is one of the last BA+ combo bats to snag in an era where batting averages keep sliding backward. And Cruz might be the buzziest name to emerge from 2024 Spring Training.

His Yahoo ADP is 65 but he’s guaranteed to go higher than that after crushing seven loud HRs this spring. If you want him then be prepared to pay. FYI, his EDV breakeven point is pick 35. Leap if you believe!

Oneil Cruz’s 7 HR this spring, exit velocities:

116.6 mph
115.0 mph
114.4 mph
111.1 mph TODAY
106.4 mph TODAY
105.4 mph
104.9 mph https://t.co/XtJSVLUWhk

— Sarah Langs (@SlangsOnSports) March 18, 2024

I’d be thrilled to land Gleyber Torres (+23) anywhere around his ADP of 84. His spot in the Bronx helps project him for about 20 more R+RBI than the EDV slot demands. He also edges his power expectation with an average of over 10 points higher than EDV.

Our projection says he’d be worth any pick around 45 and up, but I’ve tended to wait more and snag Zack Gelof (+25) later on. Oakland doesn’t carry the R+RBI allure of NYY but Gelof could go 25/25 or even 30/30 with mild shock.

Ian Happ (+46) hit third for the bulk of 2023 after batting in the 4-6 holes for most of 2022. Combined with the improved play of CHC, Happ logged 50 additional plate appearances in ‘23 compared to ‘22 despite the same games played tally (158). He leaped from 144 R+RBI to 170 R+RBI as a result, I expect this trend to continue in 2024, where his lower ADP of around 150 requires him to only log 134 R+RBI to hit the mark.

Happ is a nice late target if I don’t need one more average anchor, which I typically love to snag if possible. This consistently leads me to Masataka Yoshida (+58), who hit .289 over 140 games in his first MLB campaign. But he started far better before wearing down, hitting .316 with 10 HRs and six steals in 78 games before the All-Star break.

After the season it was revealed he was suffering from headaches due to TMJ, especially after traveling. He got off-season surgery to address this and might be playing far more comfortably in 2024.

Mix that with playing less in the field (per Alex Cora) as well as simply having a year in the bigs under his belt and we could easily see a .300/18/10 year from Yoshida in hitter-friendly Fenway. Take him and teammate Trevor Story for the true Nick Mariano special.

Masataka Yoshida confirms he had jaw surgery right after the season and thinks it’ll help him just be under less stress on the field this year.

— Chris Cotillo (@ChrisCotillo) February 25, 2024

Okay, let’s get to my Perfect Draft scenario. Several of the bats discussed here will inform this, and you’ll also see some of the arms I like! Most of my drafts are on Yahoo, so let’s use their ADP to build a team of “My Guys” going into 2024. This is a traditional 5x5 setting where I’ll list the player taken, their Yahoo ADP, the round it corresponds to, and their EDV Score/Cohort. Imagine I'm picking ninth for this thought exercise. Enjoy!

Nick Mariano's Perfect Yahoo Draft

Using EDV to Identify Potential Team Stacks

As you may have noticed from my Perfect Draft exercise, I wound up with three Red Sox in the starting lineup and another on the bench. I realized that it might be helpful to illustrate the total EDV score by team, combining the values of those who qualify for a cohort with Yahoo ADP.

Some of you actively avoid rostering too many players from any one team and in leagues with very short benches then I understand. A rainout or off day can leave you up a river when filling out a lineup. But in general, stacking is popular in DFS for a reason ($$$), and that can carry over to seasonal as well.

The Braves unsurprisingly lead the way with 152, but the Red Sox are second at 144. This exercise does not show "which teams put up the most numbers," but it does at least hint at which teams put up the most numbers relative to their ADP. Maybe this causes you to look more closely at certain rosters. Enjoy!

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