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Touchdowns can be fluky, but finding which players tend to garner the high-value touches and opportunities can lead to scoring chances. We'll look at the high-value touches and opportunities each week to identify potential over and underperformers.
A quick example would be Jamaal Williams with the Lions in 2022 when he led the league in rushing touchdowns (17) yet ranked 18th in expected points per game at 13. Williams led the league in rushing attempts inside the 10-yard line at 45, over 15 more carries than Joe Mixon (29), Miles Sanders (26), and Ezekiel Elliott (26), who were rounding out the top four. If we take this further, Williams ranked fourth with 84.6 percent of the team's carries inside the 5-yard line. Though we didn't expect him to sustain the high touchdown rate, regression is a matter of when and not if it hits. We want to chase running backs based on volume, efficiency, and high-value opportunities as a rusher and receiver. Teams lean on the run when they inch closer to the goal line, and a player's high-value opportunities hold weight.
The visual below shows the 2023 leaders in carries inside the 5-yard line as a reference point since most teams lean on the ground game when they're inching closer to the goal line.
We'll focus on quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends who garner high-value opportunities as rushers and receivers. To define high-value, they're the rushing and receiving opportunities inside the 10-yard line. Reach out to me on X if you have any questions or thoughts.
High-Value Rushing Opportunities Inside the 10-Yard Line
Ravens, Chiefs, Eagles, and Packers Running Backs
The exciting opening games on Thursday and Friday had tons of explosive plays. That led to few opportunities inside the 10-yard line for Derrick Henry, Justice Hill, and Isiah Pacheco, with only one carry each. Henry and Pacheco scored on their lone carry inside the 10-yard line, specifically inside the 5-yard line.
It's not unexpected to see Henry garner the carries near the goal line. That's evident in Henry garnering the fifth-highest rate of attempts inside the five with the Titans in 2023. Pacheco ranked 18th in 2023, with 60 percent of the team's rushing attempts inside the 5-yard line, turning into a solid 25 percent touchdown rate.
Keep tabs on Samaje Perine's usage because the late offseason acquisition had a minimal impact in Week 1, but Jerick McKinnon stole high-value touches from Pacheco in the past.
Saquon Barkley had 100 percent of the Giants' rush attempts inside the 5-yard line last season, but Jalen Hurts will likely steal a few. In Week 1, Hurts only had one carry inside the 10-yard line, which might be more of a rare occurrence. Barkley had three carries inside the five, scoring a touchdown on one, accounting for 66.7 percent of the team's attempts.
We talked during the offseason about Matt LaFleur's offenses and how he typically shared the backfield between two running backs, including Aaron Jones and Henry.
However, Henry's massive breakout came under Arthur Smith after LaFleur left Tennessee. Without MarShawn Lloyd healthy, Josh Jacobs handled 76.2 percent of the team's rush attempts, with an 8.6 percent target share.
For context, Jones had a 44 percent rush share, with Dillon at 45 percent in 2023. Jones garnered 47 percent of the team's rush attempts in 2022, with Dillon at 41 percent. That could indicate a wide gap between Jacobs and Emanuel Wilson, and Lloyd may eat into the workload when healthy. Or Jacobs becomes a value based on volume, yet the Jordan Love injury will impact the offensive efficiency.
No Surprises With This Group
We had six running backs with three or more carries inside the 10, including Alvin Kamara (four), Joe Mixon (four), Barkley, David Montgomery (three), Jonathan Taylor (three), and Jahmyr Gibbs (three).
Montgomery had two of his three attempts come in overtime. The Lions having two of their running backs fed high-value rushing attempts and scoring touchdowns should give us optimism for this offense. Furthermore, Gibbs garnered two, or 66.7 percent, of the team's carries inside the five compared to Montgomery's one attempt (33.3 percent).
Mixon and Taylor aren't surprising on this list since they've handled a hefty rushing and receiving workload in the past. Kamara had the 12th-most carries inside the 10, with the 11th-highest rate inside the five (66.7 percent) in 2023. Unless another running back eats into Kamara's workload, he'll continue to eat high-value touches.
The Potentially Game-Breaking Rookie
Jayden Daniels gave us the fantasy juice via the ground game, evidenced by his 16 carries for 88 rushing yards and two scores. Three of his 16 carries came inside the 10-yard line, accounting for 75 percent of the team's carries inside the 5-yard line.
Unsurprisingly, both of Daniels' touchdowns came via the high-value rushing attempts. It's only one game, but Daniels could be a potential game-breaker like Anthony Richardson's small rookie sample from 2023.
Using the RotoViz Screener, we sorted by quarterbacks with the most rush attempts per game in their rookie season since 2010. Even when we regress the rushing attempts closer to 10 per game, Daniels looks similar to Lamar Jackson, Robert Griffin III, Cam Newton, and Josh Allen.
For context, Hurts had 29 rushing attempts inside the 10-yard line (No. 8), leading all quarterbacks in 2023. Hurts accounted for 47.1 percent of the Eagles' attempts inside the five.
Among rushers with 10 attempts inside the 10-yard line, Hurts had the third-highest touchdown rate at 48.3 percent behind Josh Allen (57.1 percent) and Kareem Hunt (53.3 percent). Though Hurts and Daniels might be built differently, the rookie garnering tons of rush attempts and carries inside the 10-yard line makes for a scary combination.
High-Value Receiving Opportunities Inside the 10-Yard Line
Christian Watson, the Ravens, and Stefon Diggs
Christian Watson looked like an efficient touchdown machine in Week 1, catching one of his two targets inside the 10-yard line for a touchdown. Romeo Doubs was the only other Packers receiver to garner a target inside the 5-yard line but came up without a catch.
The Ravens trailed the Chiefs, leading to Lamar Jackson throwing 41 pass attempts for a 55.4 percent pass rate. That's four percentage points higher than their pass rate in 2023 (51 percent), which remained relatively even.
We provide that context because Jackson targeted Isaiah Likely and Zay Flowers twice each inside the 10-yard line, though they had zero receptions. It might be rare for them to pass more than run inside the 10, especially considering Jackson had one of his highest scramble rates per attempt in 2023 (43.1 percent) and a ridiculous average of 56.3 percent in Week 1.
If Henry and the offense aren't as effective as they expect, we may see Jackson scramble way more than ever. The visual below shows the Week 1 leaders in targets inside the 10-yard line.
Stefon Diggs had the most targets inside the 10 with three. Diggs caught all three and scored on two of them. The usage was strange for Diggs, though it led to fantasy points. Diggs had the ninth-lowest average target depth (1.7) while running slot routes 63.9 percent of the time. That's over double the slot route rate he averaged in his career at 29.4 percent.
Regardless, the Texans played all three top receivers at a high rate, with Diggs running a route 94.4 percent of the time, plus Nico Collins at 94.1 percent and Tank Dell at 97.1 percent. There will be fluctuations in the Texans' receiver usage, but we can likely bank on them continuing to use three-receiver sets.
Cooper Kupp is Back
Kupp had the highest target share in Week 1 at 43.8 percent, with a whopping 21 targets. He matched a career-high in Week 8 of 2020, with seven career games with 15+ targets. Kupp had two targets inside the 10, catching one for a touchdown. For context, Kupp and Puka Nacua had eight targets each inside the 10 last season.
Kupp has been one of the elite target earners over the past handful of seasons, with the closest comparisons via the RotoViz Screener since 2019 before Week 1 of the 2024 season.
That's elite receiver volume with high-value opportunities for touchdowns, making him a potential weekly winner with Nacua headed to injured reserve.
The Rams may lean pass-heavy when closer to the goal line, with Demarcus Robinson and Tyler Johnson garnering one target inside the 10-yard line compared to Kyren Williams having two carries. There might be a slight efficiency dip in the receiving game without Nacua, but we should still have confidence in this offense and Kupp's value.
A Rookie and A Veteran
Diontae Johnson had a downgraded WR/CB matchup in Week 1 against the Saints, and it might've been worse than expected. Johnson caught two receptions for 17 yards on six targets (20 percent), though the Panthers offense struggled to find consistency.
Keep tabs on Johnson's usage inside the 10 because we know he earns volume, improving his chances for touchdowns.
On a positive note, Johnson had two targets inside the 10-yard line, though he unsurprisingly caught zero. The Saints dominated the time of possession of over 36 minutes while converting 53 of their third-down plays. That's significantly different from the Panthers having the ball for over 23 minutes, with a brutal 10 percent third-down efficiency in Week 1.
Be patient with Johnson because we know Dave Canales' track record with supporting quarterbacks and offenses at two previous spots. That's especially notable considering the track record of Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield before Canales.
We know Bryce Young had a historically brutal year as a rookie. However, we hope Young makes a Jared Goff-like leap in Year 2 with Sean McVay.
Ladd McConkey received tons of buzz as a prospect. In Week 1, McConkey earned two targets inside the 10-yard line and caught one for a touchdown. He had the highest target share on the Chargers at 26.9 percent, with the second-highest air yard share at 25.8 percent.
McConkey led the team with routes ran in the slot (60.9 percent), which might mean easier receptions for Justin Herbert. If anything, our confidence in McConkey goes slightly up because he ran many routes while being one of the top options in the receiving opportunities, especially inside the 10-yard line.
Third- and Fourth-Down Targets
Theoretically, quarterbacks and teams will be focused on targeting certain pass-catchers in crucial moments on third and fourth down. We had a mixture of high-end receivers and some interesting names on the Week 1 leaderboard of third- and fourth-down targets.
That's usually a sign of a good list with a mix of players that make sense and others that make us want to learn more. The visual below shows the Week 1 leaders in team target shares on third and fourth downs.
Kupp and Chris Godwin being the leaderboard for third- and fourth-down targets is unsurprising, especially since they're highly involved in their offenses.
Though the Jets struggled for most of the game on offense, there were times when Aaron Rodgers helped keep the team efficient via passes to Garrett Wilson. He earned a team-high four targets on third and fourth downs, showing Rodgers looked toward his top receiver in crucial situations.
Then, we have slot receivers like Greg Dortch and Wan'Dale Robinson. Among pass-catchers with three targets or more in Week 1, Robinson ranked fifth (84.4 percent) and Dortch ranked eighth (75 percent) in slot route rate. Surprisingly, Robinson was the first-read target for the Giants 36.4 percent of the time (No. 9), slightly better than Malik Nabers with a 31.8 percent first-read target share (No. 17).
Like Robinson, Dortch led the team in first-read target share at 28.6 percent (No. 30), ahead of Trey McBride at 23.8 percent (No. 43) and Marvin Harrison Jr. at a lowly 14.3 percent. Harrison ranked 83rd in first-read target share out of 100 qualified pass-catchers with three or more targets in Week 1.
It could be coverage and matchup-related for the Cardinals, so don't panic about Harrison. However, Dortch's stock should rise slightly, especially if Kyler Murray continues to look his way on first reads and third/fourth downs.
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