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Justin Carter identifies rookie and veteran players who should be fallers in fantasy football value in dynasty leagues after the 2020 NFL Draft. These players could be dynasty trade block candidates and sells.
The NFL Draft is a time where collegiate players find new opportunities playing professional football. It's a time when NFL teams fill important holes in their rosters with young talent.
But it's also a time where two things also happen. First, that young talent often displaces veteran players on a team's depth chart, leading to a decreased role for those older players, and second, sometimes that young talent ends up in a very bad situation where they won't have the chance to succeed.
Let's talk about some of the dynasty fantasy losers of the 2020 NFL Draft. And in case you missed it, you can also check out my NFL Draft winners article released yesterday.
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Dynasty Rookie Losers
Jalen Hurts - Quarterback, Philadelphia Eagles
Yeah, this is bad for Jalen Hurts. Always expected to be a project for some team who'd need a year or two before he could see the field, Hurts now finds himself on a team that already has a young, MVP-caliber (albeit injury-prone) quarterback in Carson Wentz. That means the expectation from the Eagles is that Hurts never winds up as more than a gadget player and backup quarterback for them, or they trade him for a future pick if he impresses when he's on the field? Neither of those things bode well for his dynasty value, and Superflex drafters who thought they'd get a bargain on a guy who could start by 2021 in the right situation now have to decide if they still want to take him in a rookie draft with this new, murkier outlook.
D'Andre Swift - Running Back, Detroit Lions
Swift got drafted into a team that likes to use committees and who has another young-ish back on the roster in Kerryon Johnson. Just not an ideal situation for Swift. (See below for some expanded Lions backfield thoughts.)
Jonathan Taylor - Running Back, Indianapolis Colts
Taylor was the 1.01 in a lot of people's minds before the NFL Draft. Now, he's sharing a backfield with Marlon Mack and is more like the 1.02 or 1.03 depending on who you ask. He's 1.03 in our site's rankings, and likely would have been 1.o1 if not for his landing spot in Indianapolis. Taylor's still an early-down monster and worth taking at 1.02, but Clyde Edwards-Helaire is now above him.
A.J. Dillon - Running Back, Green Bay Packers
No better position for a running back than the mess that is the Aaron Jones/Jamaal Williams backfield in Green Bay. How will Dillon fit into it? Why did the Packers even draft him? As I prepare for rookie drafts, it's hard for me to imagine taking Dillon at this point.
Devin Asiasi and Dalton Keene - Tight End, New England Patriots
Two of the first five tight ends taken in this draft went to New England. Maybe both guys become productive members of the New England Patriots, but the better bet is that at least one of the two doesn't end up making much of an impact in his NFL career. Which one will that be? At this point, I don't know, though Asiasi seems like the safer bet. Regardless, by ending up together, neither player has the same fantasy upside they might have had before.
Dynasty Veteran Losers
Devin Singletary - Running Back, Buffalo Bills
Well, this isn't great. With Frank Gore gone, a lot of people thought Singletary would be the workhorse back in Buffalo, but the team added Zach Moss, who is basically 22-year-old Frank Gore, which means that for the length that the duo are together in Buffalo, Singletary's touchdown upside takes a stark dive, as Moss should get the majority of the goal-line work. Singletary should still see plenty of touches, but if things work out like Buffalo thinks with Moss, Singletary's ceiling for the next few years has been lowered.
Kerryon Johnson - Running Back, Detroit Lions
You can make a pretty good argument that D'Andre Swift is the best running back in this draft class, so the Lions taking him in Round 2 is obviously bad news for those of us who were ready for it to be Kerryon Johnson SZN. Johnson's only played 18 games in his two years in the league and his numbers fell off last year, like his yards before contact per carry dropping from 3.2 to 1.6. What looked like a minor setback for Johnson's career is now much worse, and his short and long term fantasy value takes a major dive.
Damien Williams - Running Back, Kansas City Chiefs
Of the major fantasy positions, running back is definitely the one with the shortest life span, which is why the veteran dynasty losers category is filled with running backs. Like the two players above, Williams had a younger running back come in who's likely to displace him, and he's at the age now where his long term stock basically only has down to go. The one hope was that he'd have a year or two as the lead back in K.C. left, but that's now out of the picture.
Ronald Jones II - Running Back, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Yep, same story as the three above, except with Jones he hasn't even shown much ability to be good in the NFL, so despite him still being young, things might be trending even more starkly down provided Ke'Shawn Vaughn is even remotely competent. Singletary and Johnson likely still have key roles on their teams, but with how Jones has looked through his first two seasons, Vaughn and Dare Ogunbowale could cut him out of things completely.
Dynasty Rookie and Veteran Losers, Together!
Both Aaron Rodgers and Jordan Love - Quarterbacks, Green Bay Packers
This feels like a lose-lose situation for dynasty owners.
On the Rodgers side, we've suddenly introduced the idea of Rodgers not being the Packers starting quarterback at some point in the next three years. It's not great for his long term value in dynasty leagues, because now one of the most certain things in the NFL is now uncertain. Uncertainty is usually not a good thing for fantasy value.
On the Love side, a young quarterback ends up in a spot where we're probably all assuming he won't start until at least 2022. He's still got dynasty value because that's how dynasty leagues work, but for the many, many people who are in win-now mode and need a quarterback -- especially in Superflex leagues -- you now have to basically cross Love's name off your list. With a different landing spot, he might have ended up starting by the second half of 2020 or, at the very least, the beginning of 2021.
More NFL Draft Analysis
