NFL Draft Reaction - RB ADP Fallers

I am going to start this column by introducing the concept of ADP, which I'm pretty sure you are already familiar with. Just in case you're not, Average Draft Position (ADP) indicates the average position where a player is drafted over more than one fantasy football draft. You can consider it as the price you have to pay to draft and get a player on your team. A high ADP (that is actually a low-numbered ADP) means that a player is going off draft boards early, and thus you'll need to draft him in the first rounds if you truly want him.

Low or high ADP values, though, are not gospel. Each of us fantasy GMs have our strategies and value players differently depending on what we think is the most important for them to have in terms of abilities. No matter what, though, ADPs are good to know the "average value" of the "average GM" you'll be drafting against.

By now, with free agency and the draft finalized and just a few players left to be signed, it makes sense to look at how ADPs are varying during the last few days as we start to gear up for our fantasy draft season. In this series, I’ll highlight players at each skill position seeing significant fluctuation from just before the past NFL draft to right after it finished, using data from FFPC drafts that have taken place in that period. Today, it's time to look at some running back fallers.

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Running Back - ADP Fallers

Melvin Gordon III, Denver Broncos

Not the biggest drop in ADP ever, going from around 60 to around 80 these days, but still impactful with more than a full-round fall on MG3's stock. The main reason, obviously, is no other than Denver drafting a fresh tailback in Javonte Williams with the 35th overall pick. The problem with this selection, as with those that I will comment in the blurbs about the other two rushers below, is precisely the one you're already thinking about: a more than probable RBBC shaping up nicely.

Melvin Gordon, as much as he's been maligned, still finished the 2020 season as the RB14 in PPR leagues with 198.4 points and averaging 13.2 on his 15 games. He was this close (986) to breaking the 1,000-rushing-yards mark, and he also added 158 on the receiving end to go with a score through the air. But, you don't pay as high a pick as an early second-rounder to have that player take on secondary/tertiary/whatever low-end duties.

Javonte Williams was a college machine playing for the Tar Heels in the NCAA. His numbers have not stopped growing in any of the past three years, and just this last season--in only 11 games, mind you--he reached 1,168 rushing yards (with 19 touchdowns!) and put up 276 receiving yards on 24 receptions (30 targets). Those numbers are freaking bonkers. This kid can break tackles with gusto and the passing game is not his true calling card, which makes him more suited to get on bulky rushing tasks. He's a rookie, though, so the hardest hit is in Gordon's veteran stock. Wouldn't surprise me if Williams ends as the RB1 of the Broncos, although this team will operate under that RBBC premise no matter what, as they have done in years past. Ultimately, it sucks for both of these two rushers.

James Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars

We all kind of know about James Robinson and his cinderella, waiver-wire-darling story of the 2020 season. That's cool, but I wanted to laugh harder at this thing, so I tried to dig deeper. If you check our WW posts from 2020, you'll find James Robinson making the cut just once, in Week 1, when he was rostered in just 2% of Yahoo leagues. We were talking about taking a flier on this guy just days after Jacksonville decided to cut RB Leonard Fournette. And, all it took Robinson to hit the ground running (no pun intended) was a game, two if you want to play the conservative role.

Just in his first three games for the Jags, the undrafted mate put up 10, 21, and his second-highest fantasy tally of the year with 30.1 PPR points. Insane. He kept up the pace all season long, finishing as the RB7 in PPR leagues with 249.4 total points and a very good 16.6 FPG mark. With this tailback in tow already, who the hell expected the Jags to snatch RB Travis Etienne... with a first-round pick!?

Well, here we are, folks. And, the most dumbfounding thing is that prior to making that pick, the Jaguars--now coached by former Ohio State HC Urban Meyer--had already signed their RB2 in Carlos Hyde, a former Meyer Buckeyes stud. To put the cherry on top, Meyer claimed that Etienne will just be "a third-down back" in his offense. I'm still wondering if he meant "a three-down back", which is what he looks capable of and the kind of workload you give a first-round RB, right? Anyway, there are so many conflicting thoughts and words being spoken around this backfield that it makes sense to find it scaring fantasy GMs all around the world. Etienne loses appeal because J-Rob was a massive hit, but rookies are bright new things getting fantasy-drafted always higher than they should. This means Robinson is the real biggest loser, as his ADP fall is already showing.

Raheem Mostert, San Francisco 49ers

Do you know how many rushers the 49ers employed last season? Come on, make a wild guess. Nope, you fell short. As many as seven. Seven! The best of them none other than... Jeff Wilson Jr.? Uh oh. The third-year running back played 12 games but was the ultimate vulture, leading the backfield with seven scores on 126 rushing attempts for a total tally of 142.3 PPR points over the season. Jerick McKinnon finished second in total points, followed by Raheem Mostert, who was the actual better player on a per-game basis with 12.5 FPG in an injury-riddled, eight-games-played season for him.

San Francisco waved goodbye to Jerick McKinnon, but there wasn't that much of a need to add a rusher to the backfield with Wilson and Mostert, and even less with the addition of Wayne Gallman--and Elijah Mitchell. The main addition to the backfield, though, was rookie Trey Sermon with the 88th overall pick (third round). With the summer yet to develop, Sermon is sitting as the RB3 in San Fran's depth chart, but even then, this looks like a three-headed monster once more entering 2021.

Wilson will be there vulturing touchdowns once more (assume it), but Sermon might end up surpassing Wilson in the depth chart and calling for more touches, and Raheem Mostert is the one who will have to endure the most bites taken to his cake--and that is assuming he is able to stay healthy all season long, which is highly doubtful considering he's played 16 games just once in his five-year career to date. The fall isn't staggering yet, and the RB1 role is still in Mostert's possession. Watch out for the summer camps, though, as a great set of performances there could foster Sermon ascension through the Niners' pecking order.

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