RADIO
It’s late in the National Football League season and there are some marquee matchups to headline Sunday’s Week 14 action.
In the AFC the 8-4 Kansas City Chiefs haven’t quite played up to expectations but still lead the AFC West and star quarterback Patrick Mahomes missed some time with injury. He’s healthy now so Kansas City should present a significant challenge to the New England Patriots. The Pats are 10-2 but just one game ahead of the Buffalo Bills in the AFC East. New England’s defense has been sensational this season but it has also helped mask an inconsistent offense, one that doesn’t appear to have enough weapons to provide sufficient help for quarterback Tom Brady.
In the NFC, the 10-2 San Francisco 49ers visit the 10-2 New Orleans Saints. The Niners are coming off a hard-fought loss to Baltimore and are tied with Seattle atop the NFC West. San Francisco has a ferocious defense and that gives them a shot against any team, including the Saints who have marched to the top of the NFC South.
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Here are some angles to consider when making your Week 14 prop picks on Monkey Knife Fight.
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STAR SHOOTOUT - EARLY GAMES
OVER/UNDERS
Jameis Winston UNDER 299.5 PASSING YARDS – Even though Winston has eight 300-yard passing games this season and is one of the more entertaining players in the league, even if that comes with high-risk play. However, he’s facing a Colts Defense that is above average when it comes to pass defense, allowing 226.9 passing yards per game and 7.3 yards per pass attempt.
Matt Ryan UNDER 287.5 PASSING YARDS – The Atlanta quarterback is averaging 295.1 passing yards per game and has thrown for at least 300 yards in eight of 11 games this season. And yet, he’s facing a Panthers team that is allowing 229.2 passing yards per game and 7.1 yards per pass attempt. That defense is enough reason to push this towards the under.
Kirk Cousins UNDER 285.5 PASSING YARDS – This is not an easy number to cover, as Cousins has thrown for 285 yards or fewer in four of his past five games, but he’s going up against a Lions pass defense that ranks 30th in the league in yards per game (280.1). It seems like it would be easier for Cousins to put up bigger passing yardage totals if wide receiver Adam Thielen was healthy but he’s not expected to play this week and the lack of depth at receiver could explain Cousins’ recent difficulty putting up big yardage totals.
Aaron Rodgers UNDER 269.5 PASSING YARDS – There have been three weeks this season in which the Packers quarterback has thrown for more than 300 yards in a game, twice going for 400-plus, but those are aberrations compared to his mediocre production for the rest of the season. On one hand, Rodgers does get the benefit of facing a Washington defense that is allowing 7.6 yards per pass, but Washington is losing most of the time so they only allow 229.2 passing yards per game. Coupled with Rodgers’ average of 255.4 passing yards per game, it’s not easy to bank on 270-plus this week.
Deshaun Watson UNDER 20.5 FANTASY POINTS – Although he doesn’t put up huge passing yardage, averaging 261.1 yards per game, Watson does have multiple touchdown passes in four of the past five games. He could have his hands full with a Broncos Defense that ranks fifth with 210.6 passing yards allowed per game and is tied for fifth with 14 passing touchdowns allowed.
RAPID FIRE
Nick Chubb -4.5 rushing yards vs. Dalvin Cook – Not only is Chubb averaging a league-leading 97.9 rushing yards per game, he gets the benefit of facing a Bengals team that is allowing a league-high 157.6 rushing yards per game. Cook has been great this season but has 55 yards on 20 carries over the past two games and while the Detroit Lions Defense is no prize winner, it is better against the run than Cincinnati.
Davante Adams +9.5 receiving yards vs. Michael Thomas – Thomas has been an absolute beast this season, averaging 107.5 receiving yards per game, but he faces a 49ers Defense that shuts down every receiver it comes across, allowing just 134.3 passing yards per game, which doesn’t leave a lot of room for Thomas to put up his typically big numbers. That opens the door for Adams, who is averaging 80.5 receiving yards per game but is going up against a Washington defense that isn’t nearly as formidable.
STAR SHOOTOUT - LATE GAMES
OVER/UNDERS
Patrick Mahomes UNDER 279.5 PASSING YARDS – In the first five weeks of the season, Mahomes obliterated this number but he has managed 280 or more passing yards once in his past five games and he has a tough matchup at New England because the Patriots are allowing 163.5 passing yards per game.
Tom Brady UNDER 270.5 PASSING YARDS – The Patriots quarterback is averaging 272.3 passing yards per game and has surpassed 270 yards in six of 12 starts but he doesn’t have as many weapons as he’s used to in the passing game and it makes it more difficult for Brady to rack up big yardage totals.
Philip Rivers OVER 259.5 PASSING YARDS – San Diego’s veteran gunslinger is averaging 286.2 passing yards per game and has thrown for more than 260 yards in nine of 12 starts. The Jaguars pass defense may be a little better than average but maybe not by enough to keep Rivers under wraps.
Derek Carr UNDER 254.5 PASSING YARDS – Although the Tennessee Titans Defense is surrendering 260.1 passing yards per game, sixth-most in the league, the Raiders passing game has been miserable lately, with Carr throwing for 349 yards in the past two games combined.
Leonard Fournette OVER 18.5 FANTASY POINTS – Although the Jaguars running back has been held to 40 or fewer rushing yards in three of the past four games, he has been increasingly productive as a receiver with 37 catches for 241 yards in the past five games.
RAPID FIRE
Julian Edelman +5.5 receiving yards vs. Tyreek Hill – As much as Hill offers a higher ceiling because of his ability to get deep, he does have to face a dominant Patriots secondary while Edelman remains Tom Brady’s favorite receiver – with double-digit targets in seven straight games – and has a better matchup going against the Chiefs Defense.
Keenan Allen -0.5 receptions vs. Travis Kelce – The Chiefs tight end, Kelce, is a consistent threat, with at least five receptions in five of the past six games but Allen has rebounded from a midseason slump and has 32 catches in his past five games.
