X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

Next Gen Stats Review: 2023 Running Backs

DeVon Achane - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL DFS Picks, Injury News

Corbin Young provides key fantasy football updates for running backs from the 2023 season, using Next Gen data to help fantasy owners make the best lineup and waiver wire decisions.

Many know Next Gen Stats for the fastest ball carriers in the NFL, which tracks a player's top speed in miles per hour (mph) on a given play. DK Metcalf had a 73-yard touchdown score that registered 22.23 mph, with Chase Brown (22.05) and Tyreek Hill (22.01) making a reception as the only three players with plays over 22 mph. Unsurprisingly, Hill had three, and De'Von Achane registered two of the fastest ball-carrier plays inside the top 10 last season.

What's even cooler involves the Next Gen Stats for rushers, passers, and receivers. We'll focus on the advanced rushing stats for this article, and cover the other categories in the future. Two of the most relevant rushing metrics on Next Gen Stats involve rushing yards over expected per attempt and the rate of eight or more defenders in the box. Those two metrics separately and together give us a starting point to examine a player and their situation.

It helps to figure out which players rushed more or less efficiently based on how many rushing yards they gained compared to what was expected in that situation. We'll explain each metric as defined by Next Gen Stats while providing context to each metric and hypothesizing ideas that come out from the data.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

 

Rushing Yards Over Expected Per Attempt (RYOE/Att)

Rushing yards over expected per attempt (RYOE/Att) looks at the number of yards per carry gained than expected. That might indicate a talented running back who can break and miss tackles or an efficient player. It's probably an indicator of both. Unsurprisingly, De'Von Achane ranked first in RYOE/Att, with over double that of Christian McCaffrey, as seen below.

McCaffrey's efficiency is unreal, especially since he faced eight defenders in the box over 36 percent of the time. That's the highest rate in the NFL ahead of Derrick Henry, Gus Edwards, Kareem Hunt, Khalil Herbert, and Tyler Allgeier. Jaylen Warren fits a similar mold to Achane, where he produced efficiently on limited carries. Warren finished with the highest broken plus missed tackle rate at 30 percent last season among running backs with 50 carries. That tracks with the excitement many had for him in the Steelers offense. 

Two of the more surprising names inside the top 10 in RYOE/Att involve Zack Moss and James Conner since they're not known for being relatively efficient. Conner ranked sixth in broken plus missed tackle rate, with Moss at 16th, as they often fought for extra yards than expected. Another data point that provides context involves 70 percent of Conner's yards coming after contact (No. 15) compared to Moss at 60 percent (No. 48).

Among the lowest or negative RYOE/Att, we have a mix of inefficient players or ones that might fall into the bust category. Seven out of 22 running backs averaged negative RYOE/Att with more than five rushing touchdowns. Those players include Kareem Hunt, Rachaad White, Josh Jacobs, Travis Etienne, Tony Pollard, and Kenneth Walker. That suggests most inefficient running backs struggle to score touchdowns, which makes sense. 

However, where Etienne, Pollard, and White stood out related to volume. Jacobs also fell into that bucket before the injury. That's evident in Jacobs ranking fourth in expected points per game, while White ranked ninth and Pollard and Etienne tied for 10th. Given Etienne's 11 rushing scores and White's six rushing touchdowns, they finished with positive fantasy points over expected per game. 

 

Eight or More Defenders in the Box

This metric from Next Gen Stats is how it sounds, where it calculates how often a rusher faces eight-plus defenders in the box. Without knowing the context of the situation, we can guess a couple of things. One is that teams might look to pass when they stack the box. Another guess is that it could be in a high-leverage situation of third or fourth down or a short-yardage opportunity. 

Nine teams passed the ball under 90 percent of the time with eight or more defenders in the box without considering the down and distance in the situation. That aligns with the guess on how teams attack opposing defenses. We'll look at the players with the highest and lowest rates to better understand their rushing advanced metrics. 

When opposing defenses stack the box with eight defenders, it's typically more difficult for teams to run the ball. We can also assume opposing defenses guessed there's a low likelihood of the running back catching the ball. As mentioned earlier, McCaffrey had the highest rate of eight defenders in the box. However, McCaffrey's elite receiving role set him apart from the group below, with the highest rate of eight defenders. That's evidenced by McCaffrey's 8.2 receiving expected points per game (No. 2) behind Kamara.

Besides McCaffrey (17.6), only Henry (7.5) and Aaron Jones (7.7) had a target share north of seven percent. Below that, we had Khalil Herbert (6.5), Conner (6.1), and Devin Singletary (6.7) posting a target share above six percent. Though we're focusing on rushing advanced metrics from Next Gen Stats, the receiving role provides context. However, the data we don't have relates to the down and distance situations since one would expect a higher rate of eight defenders if there's a short-yardage situation. 

When we flip the spreadsheet on its head and look at the lowest rate of eight defenders in the box, Kyren Williams led all running backs with 4.82 percent. Joshua Kelley and Miles Sanders had the second- and third-lowest rates. However, they also finished as two of the more inefficient rushers in RYOE/Att. 

The other running backs that round out the top 12 with the lowest rates of eight-plus defenders present a mixed group of players that garner a healthy receiving role. Six of the rushers with the lowest rate of eight defenders had a target share of eight percent or higher, four of which had a double-digit share. Though they didn't post high target shares, Achane and Jonathan Taylor possess a receiving role in their respective offenses. 

However, we again don't have context on the situations because these running backs could have been in third-down situations, where teams typically pass the ball. On first and second downs, we had eight teams with a pass rate of 55 percent or higher. Meanwhile, zero teams have a pass rate under 60 percent on third and fourth downs. 



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!

More Fantasy Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Jameson Williams

Lions Didn't Entertain Trade Offers For Jameson Williams
Dalton Rushing

Homers In Four-Hit Game
Qadir Ismail

Raiders Sign Qadir Ismail
New York Giants

Giants Plan To Exercise Kayvon Thibodeaux's Fifth-Year Option
Russell Wilson

Will Be Giants Starting Quarterback
Max Muncy

With A Pair Of Doubles Back At Triple-A
Michael Lorenzen

Tosses Quality Start
Kansas City Chiefs

Chiefs Close Out The First Round With Josh Simmons
Philadelphia Eagles

Eagles Trade Up One Spot In First Round To Select Jihaad Campbell
A.J. Puk

Likely To Miss Multiple Months
Marquis Grissom Jr.

Notches Fifth Save At Double-A
Buffalo Bills

Bills Address Secondary And Take Maxwell Hairston With 30th Overall Pick
Félix Bautista

Felix Bautista Records Third Save
NFL

Eagles, Chiefs Swap First-Round Picks
Washington Commanders

Josh Conerly Jr. Goes At No. 29 Overall To Commanders

Giants Trade Up For Jaxson Dart At No. 25
Detroit Lions

Tyleik Williams Taken By Lions At No. 28 Overall
Shane Smith

Tosses Five Shutout Frames
Roman Anthony

With Home Run No. 5 On Thursday
Baltimore Ravens

Ravens Go With Malaki Starks At No. 27 Overall In NFL Draft
Minnesota Vikings

Minnesota Takes Donovan Jackson No. 24 Overall
NFL

Rams Trade The 26th Pick In The 2025 NFL Draft To The Falcons
Andrés Muñoz

Andres Munoz Secures Ninth Save
Atlanta Falcons

Falcons Trade Back Into First Round To Draft James Pearce Jr. At No. 26 Overall

Matthew Golden Selected No. 23 Overall By Green Bay
NFL

Texans Trade The 25th Pick In The 2025 NFL Draft To The Giants
Jakob Marsee

Up To 18 Steals At Triple-A

Omarion Hampton Taken No. 22 Overall By Chargers
Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh Selects Derrick Harmon At No. 21 Overall
Denver Broncos

Broncos Build Secondary By Selecting Jahdae Barron At No. 20

Buccaneers Add Emeka Egbuka At No. 19
Jeff McNeil

Activated From Injured List
Brett Baty

Optioned To Minors
Zack Gelof

To Begin Rehab Assignment Next Week
Ryan Walker

Remains Giants Closer
Kumar Rocker

Heads To Injured List
Brent Rooker

Resting For First Time This Season
Jrue Holiday

Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Isaiah Stewart

Remains Out For Game 3
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Rasmus Ristolainen

To Miss Training Camp
Jonas Siegenthaler

Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Bryan Woo

Picks Up Third Win, Strikes Out Eight On Thursday
Cade Cavalli

Moving Rehab Assignment To Double-A
Paul DeJong

Having Surgery On His Nose
Royce Lewis

Starting His Rehab Assignment On Friday
Tyler O'Neill

Out On Thursday With Sore Neck
Linus Ullmark

Attempts To Overcome Playoff Struggles Thursday
Anthony Cirelli

A Game-Time Call Thursday
Logan Thompson

Comes Up Big In Game 2
Connor McMichael

Strikes Twice In Wednesday's Win
Anze Kopitar

Tallies Four Points In Game 2 Victory
Adrian Kempe

Notches Two Goals, Two Assists In Wednesday's Win
Tyler Seguin

Gives Stars Series Lead With Overtime Winner
Gabriel Landeskog

Delivers Six Hits In First Game Since 2022
Tyler Herro

Scores Game-High 33 Points In Wednesday's Loss
Donovan Mitchell

Fires In 30 Points In Game 2 Win
Paolo Banchero

Notches 32 Points In Game 2 Loss
Jaylen Brown

Posts 36-Point Double-Double Wednesday
Jalen Green

Erupts For 38 Points In Game 2 Victory
Brandin Podziemski

Limited To 14 Minutes Wednesday
Jimmy Butler III

Set For MRI Thursday
Brandin Podziemski

Upgraded To Available
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Michael Porter Jr.

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Davion Mitchell

Moves Into Starting Lineup Wednesday
Brandin Podziemski

Picks Up Questionable Tag
Al Horford

Starts Game 2
Michael Porter Jr.

Practices On Wednesday
Jayson Tatum

Out On Wednesday
Isaiah Stewart

May Miss Another Game Thursday
NYI

Cal Clutterbuck Announces Retirement
Pavel Zacha

Recovering From Small Procedure
Nikolaj Ehlers

To Miss At Least Two More Games
Miro Heiskanen

Still Out On Wednesday
John Klingberg

Enters Oilers Lineup For Game 2
Evander Kane

To Make Season Debut Wednesday Night
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Posts Team-High 26 Points In Tuesday's Loss
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Notches 27 Points Despite Poor Shooting
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Pascal Siakam

Scores Team-High 24 Points In Game 2 Win
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF