X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

Next Gen Stats Review: 2023 Running Backs

DeVon Achane - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL DFS Picks, Injury News

Corbin Young provides key fantasy football updates for running backs from the 2023 season, using Next Gen data to help fantasy owners make the best lineup and waiver wire decisions.

Many know Next Gen Stats for the fastest ball carriers in the NFL, which tracks a player's top speed in miles per hour (mph) on a given play. DK Metcalf had a 73-yard touchdown score that registered 22.23 mph, with Chase Brown (22.05) and Tyreek Hill (22.01) making a reception as the only three players with plays over 22 mph. Unsurprisingly, Hill had three, and De'Von Achane registered two of the fastest ball-carrier plays inside the top 10 last season.

What's even cooler involves the Next Gen Stats for rushers, passers, and receivers. We'll focus on the advanced rushing stats for this article, and cover the other categories in the future. Two of the most relevant rushing metrics on Next Gen Stats involve rushing yards over expected per attempt and the rate of eight or more defenders in the box. Those two metrics separately and together give us a starting point to examine a player and their situation.

It helps to figure out which players rushed more or less efficiently based on how many rushing yards they gained compared to what was expected in that situation. We'll explain each metric as defined by Next Gen Stats while providing context to each metric and hypothesizing ideas that come out from the data.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

 

Rushing Yards Over Expected Per Attempt (RYOE/Att)

Rushing yards over expected per attempt (RYOE/Att) looks at the number of yards per carry gained than expected. That might indicate a talented running back who can break and miss tackles or an efficient player. It's probably an indicator of both. Unsurprisingly, De'Von Achane ranked first in RYOE/Att, with over double that of Christian McCaffrey, as seen below.

McCaffrey's efficiency is unreal, especially since he faced eight defenders in the box over 36 percent of the time. That's the highest rate in the NFL ahead of Derrick Henry, Gus Edwards, Kareem Hunt, Khalil Herbert, and Tyler Allgeier. Jaylen Warren fits a similar mold to Achane, where he produced efficiently on limited carries. Warren finished with the highest broken plus missed tackle rate at 30 percent last season among running backs with 50 carries. That tracks with the excitement many had for him in the Steelers offense. 

Two of the more surprising names inside the top 10 in RYOE/Att involve Zack Moss and James Conner since they're not known for being relatively efficient. Conner ranked sixth in broken plus missed tackle rate, with Moss at 16th, as they often fought for extra yards than expected. Another data point that provides context involves 70 percent of Conner's yards coming after contact (No. 15) compared to Moss at 60 percent (No. 48).

Among the lowest or negative RYOE/Att, we have a mix of inefficient players or ones that might fall into the bust category. Seven out of 22 running backs averaged negative RYOE/Att with more than five rushing touchdowns. Those players include Kareem Hunt, Rachaad White, Josh Jacobs, Travis Etienne, Tony Pollard, and Kenneth Walker. That suggests most inefficient running backs struggle to score touchdowns, which makes sense. 

However, where Etienne, Pollard, and White stood out related to volume. Jacobs also fell into that bucket before the injury. That's evident in Jacobs ranking fourth in expected points per game, while White ranked ninth and Pollard and Etienne tied for 10th. Given Etienne's 11 rushing scores and White's six rushing touchdowns, they finished with positive fantasy points over expected per game. 

 

Eight or More Defenders in the Box

This metric from Next Gen Stats is how it sounds, where it calculates how often a rusher faces eight-plus defenders in the box. Without knowing the context of the situation, we can guess a couple of things. One is that teams might look to pass when they stack the box. Another guess is that it could be in a high-leverage situation of third or fourth down or a short-yardage opportunity. 

Nine teams passed the ball under 90 percent of the time with eight or more defenders in the box without considering the down and distance in the situation. That aligns with the guess on how teams attack opposing defenses. We'll look at the players with the highest and lowest rates to better understand their rushing advanced metrics. 

When opposing defenses stack the box with eight defenders, it's typically more difficult for teams to run the ball. We can also assume opposing defenses guessed there's a low likelihood of the running back catching the ball. As mentioned earlier, McCaffrey had the highest rate of eight defenders in the box. However, McCaffrey's elite receiving role set him apart from the group below, with the highest rate of eight defenders. That's evidenced by McCaffrey's 8.2 receiving expected points per game (No. 2) behind Kamara.

Besides McCaffrey (17.6), only Henry (7.5) and Aaron Jones (7.7) had a target share north of seven percent. Below that, we had Khalil Herbert (6.5), Conner (6.1), and Devin Singletary (6.7) posting a target share above six percent. Though we're focusing on rushing advanced metrics from Next Gen Stats, the receiving role provides context. However, the data we don't have relates to the down and distance situations since one would expect a higher rate of eight defenders if there's a short-yardage situation. 

When we flip the spreadsheet on its head and look at the lowest rate of eight defenders in the box, Kyren Williams led all running backs with 4.82 percent. Joshua Kelley and Miles Sanders had the second- and third-lowest rates. However, they also finished as two of the more inefficient rushers in RYOE/Att. 

The other running backs that round out the top 12 with the lowest rates of eight-plus defenders present a mixed group of players that garner a healthy receiving role. Six of the rushers with the lowest rate of eight defenders had a target share of eight percent or higher, four of which had a double-digit share. Though they didn't post high target shares, Achane and Jonathan Taylor possess a receiving role in their respective offenses. 

However, we again don't have context on the situations because these running backs could have been in third-down situations, where teams typically pass the ball. On first and second downs, we had eight teams with a pass rate of 55 percent or higher. Meanwhile, zero teams have a pass rate under 60 percent on third and fourth downs. 



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!

More Fantasy Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Eugenio Suárez6 hours ago

Eugenio Suarez Hits Go-Ahead Grand Slam Tuesday
A.J. Puk6 hours ago

Earns First Save Of Season Tuesday
Michael King6 hours ago

Fans 11 In Five Shutout Innings Tuesday
Christian Yelich6 hours ago

Hits First Homer Of Season, Steals Base Tuesday
Evan Engram6 hours ago

Sean Payton Excited About Evan Engram In Joker Role
Anthony Bender6 hours ago

Earns First Save Of Season Tuesday
Robert Hassell III6 hours ago

Has Three-Hit Day At Triple-A
Thomas Harrington6 hours ago

Hit Hard In MLB Debut Tuesday
Gunnar Henderson6 hours ago

Hits Solo Homer In Triple-A Rehab Game Tuesday
Marcelo Mayer7 hours ago

Hits First Home Run At Triple-A
Caleb Williams7 hours ago

To Spend More Time Working Under Center
Tom Hoge7 hours ago

Looking To Build Off Strong Performance At The PLAYERS Championship
Zebby Matthews7 hours ago

Twirls Five Shutout Innings At Triple-A
Daniel Jones7 hours ago

Anthony Richardson, Daniel Jones To Split First-Team Reps This Offseason
Terry McLaurin7 hours ago

Commanders Interested In Extending Terry McLaurin
Rashee Rice7 hours ago

Expected To Be Ready For Training Camp
Hurston Waldrep7 hours ago

Fans Seven In Win At Triple-A
Garrett Wilson7 hours ago

Jets Plan To Get Garrett Wilson The Ball "As Much As Possible"
Keaton Mitchell8 hours ago

Ravens Have High Hopes For Keaton Mitchell
Angel Genao8 hours ago

Dealing With Shoulder Injury
Derrick Henry8 hours ago

John Harbaugh Wants Ravens To Extend Derrick Henry
Christian McCaffrey8 hours ago

Is Healthy
Clarke Schmidt8 hours ago

To Return April 15 Or 16
Shane Baz8 hours ago

Strikes Out 10
Mike Tauchman9 hours ago

Begins Rehab Assignment
Wyatt Langford9 hours ago

Launches Another Homer
Nathan Eovaldi9 hours ago

Throws Complete Game Shutout
Michael Petersen9 hours ago

Traded To Atlanta
Matt Fitzpatrick9 hours ago

Looking For Consistency At Valero Texas Open
Corey Conners10 hours ago

Continues Strong Form Ahead Of Valero Texas Open
Patrick Cantlay10 hours ago

Eyeing Victory At Valero Texas Open
Reynaldo López10 hours ago

Reynaldo Lopez To Undergo Right-Shoulder Surgery
Gary Woodland10 hours ago

Showing Great Form Ahead Of Valero Texas Open
Akshay Bhatia10 hours ago

Aiming For Repeat At Valero Texas Open
Alejandro Tosti10 hours ago

A Volatile Choice At TPC San Antonio
NFL10 hours ago

Tush Push Unlikely To Be Banned For 2025 Season
Xavier Legette10 hours ago

Dave Canales Compares Xavier Legette To DK Metcalf
Brett de Geus11 hours ago

Phillies Claim Brett de Geus Off Waivers From Marlins
New York Giants11 hours ago

Ty Summers Re-Signs With New York
Nick Mears11 hours ago

Beginning Rehab Assignment At Triple-A
Sam Ehlinger11 hours ago

Signs One-Year Deal With Denver
Guerschon Yabusele11 hours ago

Out Against Knicks
Karl-Anthony Towns11 hours ago

Sits Out Tuesday's Game
Arizona Cardinals11 hours ago

Calais Campbell Returns To Arizona
Jevon Carter11 hours ago

Ruled Out Tuesday
Dalen Terry11 hours ago

Unavailable Against Raptors
Julian Phillips12 hours ago

Out On Tuesday
Jalen Smith12 hours ago

Available Against Raptors
Lonzo Ball12 hours ago

Still Out On Tuesday
Kevin Huerter12 hours ago

Cleared For Tuesday's Matchup
Josh Giddey12 hours ago

Will Play On Tuesday
Dalano Banton12 hours ago

Starting Against The Hawks
Royce O'Neale12 hours ago

Unavailable Against Bucks
Jerami Grant12 hours ago

Out Again On Tuesday
Bradley Beal12 hours ago

Out On Tuesday
Ron Holland II12 hours ago

Tagged With A One-Game Suspension Tuesday
Anfernee Simons12 hours ago

Ruled Out Versus The Hawks
Trae Young12 hours ago

Officially Available Tuesday
Marcus Sasser12 hours ago

Suspended For One Game On Tuesday
Giannis Antetokounmpo13 hours ago

Will Play On Tuesday
Jimmy Snuggerud13 hours ago

Ready For NHL Debut Tuesday
Isaiah Stewart13 hours ago

Suspended For Two Games On Tuesday
Jacob Trouba13 hours ago

Set To Rejoin Ducks Lineup Tuesday
Jonathan Kuminga13 hours ago

Ruled Out On Tuesday
Troy Terry13 hours ago

On Track To Play Tuesday
Jaylen Brown13 hours ago

Questionable Versus Miami
Jonathan Marchessault13 hours ago

Remains Out Against Blue Jackets
Alex Laferriere13 hours ago

Expected To Return On Tuesday
Luke Schenn13 hours ago

A Game-Time Decision Tuesday
Dante Fabbro13 hours ago

Returns Against Predators
Detroit Lions15 hours ago

Alim McNeill Could Miss Start Of Regular Season
Tennessee Titans16 hours ago

Justin Hardee Sr. Returning To Titans
Washington Commanders16 hours ago

Brandon Coleman Moving To Right Tackle For Commanders
Raheem Blackshear16 hours ago

Returning To Carolina
Kirk Cousins16 hours ago

Not Expected To Attend Voluntary Offseason Training
NFL16 hours ago

NFL Ownership Votes To Move Kickoff Touchbacks To 35-Yard Line
Olli Määttä16 hours ago

Olli Maatta A Game-Time Call On Tuesday
Jordan Greenway17 hours ago

Remains Sidelined On Tuesday
Dallas Cowboys17 hours ago

Cowboys Willing To Make Micah Parsons The Highest-Paid Non-QB
Jordan Staal17 hours ago

Doubtful For Wednesday
Matt Roy17 hours ago

Not Traveling With Team
Josh Norris17 hours ago

Not Traveling With The Team On Tuesday
Brady Tkachuk17 hours ago

Not Playing On Tuesday
Jordan Spieth19 hours ago

Needs To Find Consistency At TPC San Antonio
Jake Knapp19 hours ago

Making First Appearance At Valero Texas Open
Michael Kim19 hours ago

Looking To Find The Magic Again In San Antonio
Tommy Fleetwood19 hours ago

Is Nearly A Must-Play At Valero Texas Open
Tony Finau20 hours ago

Hoping For Better Approach Play In San Antonio
Eric Cole20 hours ago

Trending In Right Direction Ahead Of Valero
Casey DeSmith23 hours ago

Sharp In Monday's Victory
Mason Marchment23 hours ago

Tallies Two Helpers On Monday
Adam Klapka24 hours ago

Tallies Two Points In Shootout Victory
Ivan Fedotov24 hours ago

Sharp Against Nashville
Matvei Michkov24 hours ago

Continues Hot Stretch On Monday
Luke Hughes24 hours ago

Scores Goal, Adds Assist In Victory
Sam Stevens1 day ago

Enjoys Nice Result In Houston
PGA1 day ago

J.T. Poston Seeks To Contend At Valero Texas Open
Denny McCarthy1 day ago

Keeps Making Cuts But Needs To Make More Putts
Brian Harman1 day ago

Off To A Subpar 2025 So Far
Ilya Samsonov2 days ago

Nursing An Upper-Body Injury
Tomas Hertl2 days ago

To Sit Out At Least One More Week
Ryan Preece2 days ago

Has Three Straight Top-10 Finishes For First Time In His Career
NASCAR2 days ago

Bubba Wallace After Third-Place Finish At Martinsville: "What a Great Day"
Todd Gilliland2 days ago

Has Mistake-Free Day At Martinsville, Grabs Another Top-10 Finish
Brandon Moreno2 days ago

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Steve Erceg2 days ago

Losses Third Consecutive Fight
Drew Dober2 days ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Mexico City
Manuel Torres2 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Harry Hall2 days ago

Bounces Back In Houston Last Week
CJ Vergara2 days ago

Gets Submitted
Ryan Fox2 days ago

Showing Improvement Heading Into The Valero Texas Open
Édgar Cháirez2 days ago

Edgar Chairez Gets Submission Win At UFC Mexico City
Vince Morales2 days ago

Drops Decision At UFC Mexico City
Raul Rosas Jr.2 days ago

Gets Decision Win At UFC Mexico City
Saimon Oliveira2 days ago

Still Winless In The UFC
David Martinez2 days ago

Wins His UFC Debut
Kevin Borjas2 days ago

Earns His First UFC Win
Ronaldo Rodríguez2 days ago

Ronaldo Rodriguez Suffers His First UFC Loss
Joel Dahmen2 days ago

Scores Top-20 Finish At Texas Children's Houston Open
Jacob Bridgeman2 days ago

Had Some Rest Heading Into The Valero
Christopher Bell2 days ago

Powers His Way To A Second-Place Finish At Martinsville
Chase Elliott2 days ago

Strong Martinsville Performance Ends With A Top-Five Finish
Kyle Larson2 days ago

Collects A Top-Five Finish At Martinsville
William Byron2 days ago

Places 22nd After Struggles At Martinsville
Joey Logano2 days ago

Claims His First 2025 Top-10 Finish After Up-And-Down Performance
Tyler Reddick2 days ago

Fails To Place In The Top 10 At Martinsville
Denny Hamlin2 days ago

Silences Doubters After Crew-Chief Change
Ty Gibbs2 days ago

Earns Best 2025 Finish At Martinsville Despite Failing Cool Suit
Ross Chastain2 days ago

Has A Great Day At Martinsville
Chase Briscoe2 days ago

Has Solid Run At Martinsville
Erik Jones2 days ago

Disqualified At Martinsville For Weight Violation
Josh Berry3 days ago

Has Top-10 Upside At Martinsville
Joey Logano3 days ago

Don't Overlook Joey Logano This Weekend
Ryan Preece3 days ago

Could Get First Three-Race Top-10 Streak Of His Career
Chase Elliott3 days ago

Looking To Continue Great Runs At Martinsville
Christopher Bell3 days ago

Wins Pole At Martinsville, But Can He Stay Up There?
Ryan Blaney3 days ago

Fast In Practice But Skeptical About Car
Denny Hamlin3 days ago

New Crew Chief Has Terrible Martinsville Record
Steve Erceg5 days ago

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Brandon Moreno5 days ago

A Favorite At UFC Mexico City
Manuel Torres5 days ago

Set For Co-Main Event
Drew Dober5 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Mexico City
Joe Pyfer5 days ago

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Kelvin Gastelum5 days ago

Set For Middleweight Matchup
Vince Morales5 days ago

In Dire Need Of Victory
Raul Rosas Jr.5 days ago

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Saimon Oliveira5 days ago

Looks For His First UFC Win
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
Calvin Ridley - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL DFS Picks, Draft Sleepers

Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings: Overvalued, Undervalued Players (2025)

Dynasty fantasy football rankings constantly shift, especially as we inch closer to the new season and fantasy drafts. Dynasty managers know the importance of finding those underrated players who could be steals in drafts or trades. They also know some players are overhyped due to unsustainable trends or past production. I'll break down two overvalued […]


Justin Fields - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Best Fantasy Football Moves During 2025 NFL Free Agency

It has been a wild offseason so far in the NFL. Plenty of players have switched teams in free agency, and some stars were even traded. Deebo Samuel Sr. was dealt to the Washington Commanders, Geno Smith was traded to the Las Vegas Raiders, and DK Metcalf has a new home with the Pittsburgh Steelers. These […]


Tyreek Hill - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Three Aging Fantasy Football Players To Sell In Dynasty Leagues

It's hard to always know when to sell off your aging fantasy football players. Often, it's also difficult to accept that it's better to move on from a player when he's coming off a productive season and still has a lot left in the tank. But I believe it's better to be a year early […]


J.J. McCarthy - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Draft Sleepers

Five Fantasy Football Superflex Quarterback Breakouts, Draft Targets (2025)

If you’ve ever played in a Superflex fantasy football league, then you know how important quarterbacks are in this format. The ability to start multiple stud quarterbacks can carry you to a Superflex title. Unfortunately, finding two such players isn’t so easy. All the top signal-callers come off draft boards first, and that makes it […]


Omarion Hampton - College Football Rankings, NCAA CFB DFS Lineup Picks - NFL Draft

Ideal Landing Spots For The Top 12 Fantasy Football Rookies - 2025 NFL Draft

Then, the NFL Draft continues to inch closer and closer. This is a very interesting class, with a handful of players who could be stars in the NFL and reshape fantasy football leagues going forward. Here are the ideal landing spots for the top 12 fantasy football rookies. These picks exist in conversation with each […]


Jalen Coker - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Eight Best Ball Late Round Value Fantasy Football Players To Target For 2025

Fantasy football is the most popular game in all of sports. It has gone from a paper-and-pen game to a multi-million dollar-a-year one. While redraft leagues are the most popular form of fantasy football, best ball leagues are quickly gaining steam. The best part of best ball leagues is the ability to draft thousands of […]


Abdul Carter - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2025 NFL Draft Rankings: Top 10 Fantasy Football Edge Rusher Prospects

Edge rusher is the most important, most coveted, and most highly-paid position on defense in the NFL. It stands to reason that the most important position in the entire game being quarterback, and by a wide margin, means the most important position on defense are the players that are tasked with disrupting opposing QBs as […]


Brock Purdy - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Picks

Brock Purdy Dynasty Fantasy Football Outlook and Trade Value

Despite becoming the all-time leading passer for the Iowa State Cyclones, Brock Purdy wasn't a highly touted prospect due to his perceived lack of athleticism. The 49ers picked him with the final pick of the 2022 NFL Draft, but Mr. Irrelevant quickly proved everyone wrong. In his first two years, he started in back-to-back NFC […]


Michael Florio's Football Show - Podcast RotoBaller Network

Florio's Football Show: Scouting NFL Draft Prospects!

Michael F Florio goes over some of the top prospects from this years NFL Draft. Florio talks about what he looks for when watching prospect tape and explains what traits translate best to the NFL level. Be sure to also tune into RotoBaller Radio on SiriusXM (SiriusXM channel 87) on Sundays from 6-7 am. You can […]


Najee Harris - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Dynasty Fantasy Football Buy or Sell: Najee Harris, Rico Dowdle, Jordan Mason

One year ago, we discussed the futures of Josh Jacobs, Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, and Aaron Jones as those free agents found new homes. This year's headliners are Najee Harris, Rico Dowdle, and Jordan Mason. Not quite the same. Still, with every transaction come implications for dynasty fantasy football rosters across the globe. Below, we […]


Romeo Doubs - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Early 2025 Fantasy Football Sleepers: Undervalued NFC Draft Targets

While the 2025 fantasy football redraft season is still several months away, there is no such thing as being too prepared for your fantasy draft. Fantasy football is year-round, even for those who only play in redraft leagues. The landscape of fantasy football will change between today and the start of redraft season, with the […]


Detroit Lions Defense, Aidan Hutchinson - Fantasy Football DST Rankings, Streamers, IDP Sleepers

2025 Fantasy Football IDP Sleepers: Five Draft Targets

It's notably difficult to identify sleepers in fantasy football IDP leagues. The skill of the players in question is very important, but situation also plays a large factor, as does a recent history of injuries. Rather than bucketing them into groups, it's better to analyze each one individually, look at where they are in terms […]


Ashton Jeanty - College Football Rankings, NCAA CFB DFS Lineup Picks

Ashton Jeanty's Top Potential Landing Spots For 2025: Fantasy Football NFL Draft Outlook

Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty will enter the 2025 NFL Draft as one of the best prospects in the class. Jeanty just ran for 2,601 yards and 29 touchdowns across 14 games this past college season. Those 2,601 rush yards were the second-most of all-time in FBS history, only behind Barry Sanders's 2,628 rush yards […]