RADIO
Justin Carter uses RotoBaller's NASCAR DFS Research Station to provide insights and analysis for DraftKings and FanDuel DFS lineup picks for the 2020 Real Heroes 400 at Darlington Raceway.
NASCAR is back! Sure, iRacing was fun and all, but there's nothing like the sound of a real engine and somewhere between 36 and 40 cars hauling off into Turn 1 at "The Track Too Tough To Tame." Racing is back, and it's real, and we get two Cup races at Darlington in one week to welcome us back.
Welcome back also to RotoBaller's NASCAR coverage. My name's Justin Carter, and you might recognize me from our site's NFL coverage (or our basketball coverage, except...well...that's on a bit of a pause right now). Moving forward, I'm hopping over to the NASCAR team to bring you some intriguing data from our premium NASCAR Research Station each week. There's a ton of great information there that can help you win in NASCAR DFS.
So, let's get going. We've got races at Darlington on Sunday and Wednesday. Here's some helpful data from my deep dive into the Premium Research Station. You can get full access to that Premium DFS Tool, and others including our Lineup Optimizer, with our NASCAR Premium Pass. Be sure to also check out all of our other weekly NASCAR DFS articles and analysis to help you set your optimal DFS lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel.
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Being On The Pole At Darlington Is Important
Alright, so NASCAR's not doing qualifying for either Darlington race. Instead, they've developed a pretty unique way of deciding how the starting lineup is set.
For Sunday's race, the field is being divided into four quadrants. The first 12 starting positions will go to the top 12 charter teams in owner points, but the order will be determined by a random draw. Same for positions 13-24 and 25-36. The final four spots will go to the non-chartered teams in order of owner points. (So, bad news for Daniel Suarez, since that Gaunt Brothers car isn't chartered!)
Then for Wednesday's race, the race is divided in half, with each half inverted. So from spots one to 20, the 20th place finisher on Sunday is on the pole for Wednesday's race. For spots 21-40, the 40th place driver starts 21st and the 21st place driver from Sunday's race starts 40th. (The battle for 20th is going to be wild in the closing laps on Sunday if the drivers racing for that spot are near each other on the track.)
Why this matters when it comes to our Research Station is that Darlington is a track where being on the pole is a huge advantage. The pole sitting at Darlington leads an average of 107.1 laps, more laps than any other track on the Cup schedule.
Now, obviously you're at a disadvantage on the pole from a place differential perspective, but the pole sitter also has one other big advantage on Sunday: these drivers haven't been in a Cup car in a couple of months and are doing so for the first time without practice at Darlington in a race with a randomized starting lineup. That first turn could be a disaster. Being out front, staying clean, and leading a bunch of laps before eventually fading a few spots in the finish order isn't the worst fantasy day.
Matt Kenseth's First Races With CGR Could Be Good Ones
When the Cup series last visited Darlington, Kurt Busch had the second-fastest average green lap speed and Kyle Larson had the third-fastest. This Chip Ganassi Racing team found a lot of speed on this track last season.
Kenseth hasn't been in a Cup car since 2018 or run a full schedule since 2017, so there's always a chance that he's rusty and that he takes some time to gel with his new team, so I'd be a little wary of playing him on Sunday, but if that speed is still there for the Ganassi cars, Kenseth could be in line for a strong night on Wednesday.
And Darlington's also a good track for him. If we look just at what Kenseth did at Darlington in his five races there with Joe Gibbs Racing -- speed-wise, CGR is more comparable to Gibbs than Roush -- then we see that those five races produced four finishes in the top six, as well as a 2013 victory.
It's not easy to jump back into this series and be competitive, but Kenseth is in a good spot to do so, driving for a team that's got speed at this track.
The last time Kenseth came out of retirement to run some races back in 2018, he only had an average finish of 19.9 against an average start of 21.9. But that was when he was splitting time with Trevor Bayne, and in the same car, Bayne had an average start of 20.6, but an average finish of just 23.9. Kenseth made that car better; now, he jumps into a car that's already good. I'm not saying Kenseth wins this race, but he's got a chance to be a good DFS value this week.
Can Jimmie Johnson Get Back To Victory Lane?
The last time Jimmie Johnson won a Cup Series race was June 4th, 2017, when he won at Dover. The seven-time champion didn't win in 2018. He didn't win in 2019. Will he win in 2020, his final season as a full-time Cup driver?
If he does, Darlington might be a good pick for where it happens.
Johnson had a lot of speed here last Fall. He was fifth in fast lap rank, sixth in average speed rank, and his ranks across various lap intervals was consistently strong:
Johnson started sixth in that race and hung around the top 10 in both of the first two stages before a Lap 276 wreck while Johnson was running in fourth ended his hopes of picking up a victory.
Johnson's had a lot of bad luck at this track over the past four years, including two finishes outside of the top 30. But he's also had success in the past, including three victories and six consecutive top 10 finishes at one point. And as Hendrick Motorsports picks up more and more speed in 2020, Johnson should benefit.
And to add one more piece of data to the calculus for you: our Research Station has driver ratings by track type, and it should be noted that for the time period our numbers cover, Johnson's best track type by rating (90.9, which is higher than his 81.3 average rating) is at tracks that rate as short/steep: Darlington, plus Bristol and Dover.
