RADIO
Justin Carter's late-round fantasy football sleeper picks that are must-haves in fantasy football drafts. These sleepers could break out and be league winners.
The 2021 NFL season is just around the corner and fantasy drafts are in full swing at this point.
Everyone knows who to pick in the first round, but what about in the last round? Or the last couple of rounds? Who are the players that you need to be looking out for as you make your final position player picks?
Below are five players who you should be trying to walk away with in the late rounds of your fantasy drafts.
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Marquez Callaway, New Orleans Saints
This article is wide receiver heavy, mainly because I just think there's a lot of depth at that position, which is pushing valuable players down the draft board.
One guy who is a big riser right now and might end up with an ADP that would make him ineligible for this list before I even finish writing this article is Saints receiver Marquez Callaway. In fact, I probably shouldn't be writing about him, because anyone reading this who is in the fantasy industry has him way up on their draft boards. But if you're a fan and you're in a league without a bunch of people who spend 20 hours per day focusing on fantasy football, you might still be able to get an edge here over people who forget about Callaway.
I thought Callaway was an interesting sleeper last year, but things never really developed for him, as he was targeted just 27 times. He caught 21 of those for 213 yards.
But the Saints were a mess, using Taysom Hill at quarterback for way too many games, and the depth chart at wideout was crowded. But this year, those things (might) be changing.
At quarterback, the Saints are set to start Jameis Winston. Winston is actually a quarterback, which makes him an upgrade over Hill. And with Michael Thomas injured and out for [probably longer than they're saying], Callaway is going to wind up starting at receiver for a Saints team that's suddenly really thin at wideout.
Assuming Winston looks anything like Tampa Winston, there's going to be a lot of receiving yards up for grabs this year. Plenty of those will go to Callaway, who could wind up as a fantasy WR2/3 play if things pan out.
Christian Kirk, Arizona Cardinals
It seems like everyone forgot about Christian Kirk this year.
Last year, Kirk had 48 catches for 621 yards and six touchdowns. In his third NFL season, Kirk saw a huge drop in targets, from 108 in 2019 to just 79 last year. He doubled his touchdowns, but touchdowns are such a funky stat on a year-to-year basis.
Still, I'm high on Kirk having a bit of a bounceback campaign and getting back to being the promising guy that we used to think he was.
Last year, Kirk has the highest aDOT of his career at 11.8. He only had a 16.29 percent target share, but that was still second-highest on the team, and the guy who was third on the Cardinals in target share, Larry Fitzgerald, is gone now. Fitz has been replaed by A.J. Green, but can we really believe that Green is going to play enough to make a material difference here when it comes to impacting other players? Nah. Kirk's going to see his target share rise this year and will be Kyler Murray's second option. Sure, this offense might not pass enough to make Kirk a league winner, but he'll be a WR3/4 option with upside, especially in weeks where Green is sidelined.
Nico Collins, Houston Texans
Should we really trust a rookie receiver on a bad offense?
Usually, I'd say no, but Houston and receiver Nico Collins might be an exception, just because of necessity.
Entering this offseason, Collins was competing with a handful of players for opportunities in Houston, but then those other players just kept vanishing from the roster. Randall Cobb is gone. Keke Coutee is gone. Anthony Miller is hurt right now. Will Fuller and Kenny Stills were on last year's team, but both are gone for 2021. Last year, wideout was a position of strength for Houston. This year, a third-round rookie is going to be starting on the outside.
Houston is starting Tyrod Taylor at quarterback, who isn't a high-volume passer. But he does have a pair of 3,000-yard seasons and he's been fairly accurate. Someone has to catch passes here: Brandin Cooks will be one of those players, but there's room for Collins to end up with 700 yards and four touchdowns just by virtue of being on the football field. And hey -- a midseason move to rookie quarterback Davis Mills can increase passing volume.
Also: passing volume increases when a team is bad and is playing a lot of second-half catch up. Houston will be doing a ton of garbage time. That matters for fantasy.
Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots
Finally, someone who is not a wide receiver!
Stevenson had a really good preseason. Sure, it happened against third stringers, but Stevenson had 217 yards and five touchdowns on 30 carries. He showed he could dominate against weak defenders; now, the question is if he'll get that same chance against better defenders.
The Patriots have a messy backfield, with Damien Harris appearing to be the starter and James White being the passing-down back. But New England did clear something up by trading Sony Michel, moving Stevenson a step closer to having a role.
No one in this Patriots running back room has the position locked down. Stevenson should see some goal line work, and that can develop into something bigger. Or it couldn't, because Bill Belichick running backs are notorious for being inconsistent when it comes to fantasy. We'll see.
Anthony Firkser, Tennessee Titans
Yes, the addition of Julio Jones means that the tight end position won't be targeted nearly as heavily this season as it was for the Titans in 2020, but that doesn't mean we can just ignore it.
Firkser split time at tight end with Jonnu Smith last year, with Firkser playing just 32 percent of the team's offensive snaps. Even with that low playing time, he saw 53 targets, catching 39 passes for 387 yards.
Per Sharp Football Stats, the Titans used 12 personnel (two tight ends, two receivers, one back) on 35 percent of their plays last year, tied for the highest percentage in the league. They ran a total of eight plays with zero tight ends on the field.
Basically, the starting tight end for Tennessee will be on the field a bunch. And because the team still doesn't have a great option as the third receiver, the tight end position will still be used plenty. Smith last year played 69 percent of the snaps; in that time, he caught 41 passes for 448 yards and eight touchdowns.
There's not a ton of depth at tight end beyond the obvious top guys. With that in mind, why not take a swing on someone who should see a lot of red zone usage?
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