Monday Night Football Matchup Analysis: Patriots vs Bills

Fantasy football starts/sits and lineups advice for the Patriots vs Bills MNF game in Week 16. Dan Fornek analyzes the matchups with a detailed breakdown.

Last week on Monday Night Football we got a surprising upset by the Cincinnati Bengals over the Pittsburgh Steelers, could we see that lightning strike twice. Buffalo has officially clinched the AFC East and New England is officially out of the playoffs, so it’ll be interesting to see if these teams can combine to create a game worth watching. The Bills and Patriots will come together this week to clash with New England playing for a better spot in the draft and the Bills playing to try and improve their seeding in the upcoming NFL playoffs.

Buffalo comes into this matchup humming on offense, averaging 29.1 points per game (5th most in the NFL) and 386.7 yards per game (6th in the NFL). Buffalo has been riding the ascension of Josh Allen to a division title and 11-3 record. Allen has completed 68.7% of his passes for 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns while throwing only nine interceptions on the year. He has also continued to factor in the run game, carrying the ball 96 times for 383 yards and eight touchdowns. The Bills passing game is fueled by Stefon Diggs (111 receptions for 1,314 yards and five touchdowns) and Cole Beasley (79 receptions for 950 yards and four touchdowns).

On the other side of things, the New England offense has scuffled all season and is extremely one-dimensional thanks to a broken passing game. Cam Newton is completing 65% of his passes, but only has 2,381 yards and five touchdowns with 10 interceptions. Newton has had a strong effort in the run game, totaling 489 yards and 11 touchdowns on 122 rushing attempts. The Patriots’ leading receiver is Damiere Byrd, and he has only 71 targets, 45 receptions, 590 yards, and a touchdown on the season. Their second-best receiver is a second-year undrafted rookie (Jakobi Meyers) with 68 targets, 49 receptions, and 616 receiving yards. Damien Harris has had a solid sophomore campaign after a lost rookie season, carrying the ball 137 times for 691 yards (five yards per carry) and two touchdowns. New England’s offense is only averaging 20.6 points per game and their defense has suffered a litany of injuries, most importantly to Stephon Gilmore, the 2019 Defensive Player of the Year in the NFL.

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots

• Game time: Monday 12/28 @ 8:15 PM EST
• Game line: Buffalo -7
• Over/Under: 46

Must-Starts

Josh Allen (QB, BUF)

If you’ve made it to the finals of your fantasy matchup, then you have to start the dudes who got you there, which means Josh Allen makes his way into this section. Allen was very underwhelming in his first contest against the Patriots (11 of 18 passing for 154 yards and an interception. He also had 10 carries for 23 yards and a score), but he has been on a tear since then. Since that Week 8 matchup, Allen is completing 70.5% of his passes for 1,828 yards and 14 touchdowns with just four interceptions. He has also added 156 rushing yards on 38 carries and four scores. In his last six games, Allen has thrown for over 275 yards in four games and has five contests with multiple touchdown passes. He also offers a solid rushing floor each week (although his carries have been down since he suffered a minor knee injury).

The Patriots are the third-best defense in fantasy football against quarterbacks this season (15.5 points per game) thanks to an amazing 17 to 16 touchdown to interception ratio. However, with the Patriots out of playoff contention and Stephon Gilmore on the IR, don’t be surprised if Allen can have a big day on Monday.

Sony Michel (RB, NE)

Sony Michel had his best game in Week 15 since returning from an early-season injury. Michel carried the ball 10 times for 74 yards and added a reception for eight yards. Michel has struggled to make an impact in his third season, topping out at just a 42% snap share in any of the seven games he has played in this season. With Damien Harris battling an ankle injury and the Patriots out of contention, New England could just decide to give Michel lead-back duties to make sure Harris is at 100% for next season and isn’t in jeopardy of doing further damage. If Harris is out, Michel could see enough volume in the offense to finish the week as a top-24 running back, especially given all the injuries in the NFL this season.

Buffalo is a middle of the road team against running backs this season, allowing 18.9 fantasy points per game to the position on the year. Buffalo is allowing 4.43 yards per carry on the season and allowed 12 rushing touchdowns on the year, the eighth-highest number in the NFL. Keep an eye on Harris’ status heading into the game, and if he is out then Michel is in consideration for a good day.

Stefon Diggs (WR, BUF)

Stefon Diggs is on an absolute tear this season, but he has taken it to another level since Week 10. In his last five games, Diggs has caught 48 of his 56 targets for 501 yards and two touchdowns. In his last two games against strong defenses (Pittsburgh and Denver), Diggs has proven he is one of the elite talents in the NFL by catching 21 passes for 177 yards and a score. Diggs missed a portion of the Denver game with a foot injury, but logged a full practice this week which suggests he is ready to go on Monday.

Diggs is a must-start against a Patriots Defense that will be down their top cornerback. New England has been the third-best defense against wide receivers this season (19.4 points per week) and has yet to allow receivers to accrue 2,000 total receiving yards on the year, but that all goes out the window with their All-Pro caliber shutdown corner. In their first matchup, Diggs caught six of nine targets for 92 yards and I wouldn’t be surprised he surpasses all of those numbers in round 2.

Cole Beasley (WR, BUF)

Cole Beasley has quietly put together a WR2 season, ranking as WR16 in PPR leagues with 202.8 points and a 14.5 point average per game. The recent injury to John Brown has had an extreme effect on Beasley’s role for Buffalo in his last three games. Beasley is averaging 10.3 targets, 7.3 receptions, and 94.3 yards and is ranking as the WR10 since Week 12. In his last five games, Beasley has had double-digit targets on four different occasions and has gone over 100 receiving yards three times. Beasley will likely see a ton of Jonathan Jones on Monday which should equal another productive evening.

Jakobi Meyers (WR, NE)

Jakobi Meyers has established himself as Cam Newton’s favorite target in the anemic New England passing attack. Meyers has at least five targets in eight of his last nine games and has recently seen his production tick upwards after a string of quiet weeks. Since Week 12, the second-year receiver has caught 18 of 27 targets for 225 yards, including a seven-catch 111-yard game last week against the Dolphins’ tough secondary. The Bills are solid against opposing wide receivers, allowing 21 points per game to the position and just 13 receiving touchdowns on the year. Since he operates mostly out of the slot, Meyers will likely avoid too many matchups with Tre’Davious White which makes him the Patriots wideout to play out of desperation.

Consider Sitting

Cam Newton (QB, NE)

At this point in the fantasy season, Cam Newton is virtually unplayable. Newton has failed to throw for over 225 yards in his last four games. He has three games under 120 passing yards in that time, including a 69-yard effort against the Rams in Week 14. The Patriots have been doing everything in their power to reduce Newton’s role in the passing game with inadequate weapons, holding him under 20 passing attempts in four of their last eight games. Newton is also failing to get it done on the ground. Except for a 14 carry, 48 yards, and two-touchdown performance in Week 13, Newton has failed to surpass 10 carries or 45 receiving yards in four of his last five games.
The Bills are a middle of the road fantasy defense against quarterbacks this season, allowing 19 points per game. In their first matchup, Newton threw for 174 yards and added 9 carries for 54 yards and a touchdown, which could very well be his ceiling in a rematch where only one team has something to play for.

Damien Harris (RB, NE)

As of this article, Damien Harris is questionable due to an ankle injury that held him out of Week 15’s game. If Harris is active, you should consider starting him since he has a very defined role in the Patriot’s offense (double-digit carries and at least 40 rushing yards in eight straight games). The Patriots like what they’ve seen in Harris as he mostly kept Sony Michel’s role in check despite Michel being active for three games with Harris. Another potential worry with Harris? If the Patriots fall behind (very likely given how the Bills offense has been clicking in recent weeks), then that could mean a heavy workload in the passing game for James White. On the season, Harris has only been targeted seven times in 10 games, suggesting he is the first and second-down back.

N'Keal Harry (WR, NE)

N’Keal Harry has the name recognition of a former first-round pick, but his production has been downright pathetic for a team starving for wide receiver talent. Harry has caught just six of 11 targets for 76 yards and a touchdown since Week 12, barely registering as a wide receiver in fantasy leagues. If he is still on your fantasy team at this point and you’re in the finals, then you should win your league by default. Harry has a solid matchup against Josh Norman this week, but don’t expect him to do much with it.

Potential Sleepers

James White (RB, NE)

The only way that James White should make it into your lineup is if you expect this game to be a big blowout. In games where the Patriots have a negative game script (playing from behind), White averages 5.2 targets, 4.1 receptions, and 37 receiving yards per game. He also gets work in the rushing game, totaling 19 carries for 67 yards in those games. White has the lowest floor for the Patriots' running backs but could very easily stumble into a day with double-digit touches if Buffalo races out to a lead.

Zack Moss (RB, BUF)

It has been a grind for Zack Moss during his rookie season. Moss has only three games this season with more than 50 rushing yards and hasn’t had a very big role in the receiving game thanks to the presence of Devin Singletary in the backfield. The Bills have been trying to get Moss going the past two weeks, giving him 26 carries that he was able to turn into 124 rushing yards against Pittsburgh and Denver. New England has struggled against running backs this season, allowing 19.3 points per week thanks to 1,580 rushing yards and 10 rushing touchdowns surrendered this season. Moss had arguably the best game of his rookie season against the Patriots back in Week 8, generating 81 yards and two touchdowns on 14 carries. If you’re starting Moss, you have to hope he falls into the end zone once or twice to return value.

Devin Singletary (RB, BUF)

The other half of the Bills’ backfield, Devin Singletary has looked more explosive than his counterpart in Zack Moss. Since Week 12, Singletary has handled 44 rushing attempts and gained 243 yards and a touchdown. He has also established himself as the pass-catching running back, catching 10 of 11 targets for 60 yards. The issue with Singletary is he loses red zone carries to Zack Moss and Josh Allen, which limits his upside in fantasy scoring every week. In his first game against New England, Singletary had 14 carries for 86 yards and added a reception for six yards. If you’re desperate for running back production you can plug in Singletary and hope he can break off some big plays as the change of pace back.

Gabriel Davis (WR, BUF)

Gabriel Davis has thrived since the John Brown injury as a field stretcher for Josh Allen and the Bills. In his last four games, Davis has caught 11 of 21 targets for 184 yards (16.73 yards per reception) and three touchdowns. Davis had a stretch with at least four targets and a touchdown in three straight games. Davis is always a candidate for a deep touchdown or a big yards after catch play, so he has excellent upside heading into this matchup.

Damiere Byrd (WR, NE)

Damiere Byrd had a very productive stretch early in the season before falling back down to earth the last four weeks. Since Week 11, Byrd has been targeted a solid 23 times but has only been able to turn that into 13 receptions for 121 yards. Byrd is by far the most explosive receiving threat the Patriots have, but given Cam Newton’s limitations in the passing game, the bulk of his production will have to take place with yards after the catch. Byrd has four games with over 50 receiving yards this season, so it is doable but is unlikely.

Dawson Knox (TE, BUF)

Dawson Knox has carved a nice little role out for himself in recent weeks, especially in the end zone. In his last four games, Knox has three touchdowns and at least 25 yards per game. He has been targeted at least four times in four of the Bills’ last five games. Thanks to the presence of Stefon Diggs and Cole Beasley (and the rushing ability of Josh Allen), Knox has shown a penchant for getting open in the end zone and scoring short touchdowns. The Patriots are a rough matchup for tight ends (just 5.1 points per game against the position this season), but Knox has touchdown upside, which is all tight ends need to be productive nowadays.

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