RADIO
Week 3’s Monday night matchup turned into a bit of a clunker of a game that had significant fantasy implications for players with Ezekiel Elliott and Jalen Hurts. Dallas handled Philadelphia for a majority of the game and had the result in hand well before the final whistle. Thankfully, we have another shot at a game with big divisional implications for the second week when the Las Vegas Raiders visit the Los Angeles Chargers this Monday night. Like last week, this game could wind up having major playoff implications down the road with the Raiders coming in sporting a 3-0 record and the Chargers sitting at 2-1.
The Raiders have won their first three games with a little bit of luck and a whole lot of passing offense. Las Vegas is leading the league in passing yards (379.7) and total yards (471) per game and is one of seven teams averaging 30 or more points per game. Derek Carr has been stellar through the first three weeks and has picked up the slack in the run game due to the absence of Josh Jacobs. Contributions of Peyton Barber and Kenyan Drake have helped sustain the ground game, but overall Carr is leaning on Darren Waller and a combination of Henry Ruggs III and Bryan Edwards to keep the Raiders atop the AFC West.
Meanwhile, the Chargers are starting to find the success on offense that sustained them last year behind second-year quarterback Justin Herbert. Los Angeles soundly beat the Washington Football Team in Week 1 before losing to Dallas in Week 2. The Chargers were able to secure an impressive conference win against Kansas City in Week 3 thanks to a huge day from Justin Herbert, Mike Williams, and Keenan Allen. The Chargers are only interested in stopping the pass, so this should be an interesting matchup between a team that has a strong secondary and the best passing offense so far in 2021. Below are this week's must-starts, high-upside plays, and players worth benching heading into Week 4’s Monday Night Football matchup.
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Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers
Game time: Monday, October 4th at 8:15 pm EST
Game line: Los Angeles -3
Over/Under: 52.5
Must Starts
Justin Herbert (QB, LAC)
Justin Herbert effectively silenced all the talk about a sophomore slump in Week 3 against Kansas City. After two weeks of strong passing numbers (70% completion and 775 yards) and modest touchdown totals (two touchdowns), Herbert exploded for 281 passing yards and four touchdowns against Kansas City. The win got him back on track passing and also could be crucial in the divisional standings come playoff time. The continued production of Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler plus the emergence of Mike Williams keeps Herbert in the Weekly QB1 discussion, making him a must-start even against a Raiders’ defense that has only allowed 745 passing yards and two passing touchdowns on the season. Their stats are good, but they haven’t faced a passer with receiving weapons like the Chargers yet this year.
Derek Carr (QB, LVR)
On the other side of the ball, the Raiders’ offense is airing the ball out at a ridiculous pace and riding the efficiency of Derek Carr to a surprising 3-0 start. Carr is completing 64.7% of his passes for a league-leading 1,203 yards and six touchdowns and two interceptions on the season. Even more impressive, his three wins have come against teams that have tough defenses in Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and Miami. Carr will face another tough challenge against a Chargers team that encourages opposing teams to run the football. Los Angeles has given up just 632 passing yards and four touchdowns on the season with just three interceptions. They are allowing 13.9 fantasy points per week to quarterbacks, the sixth-best mark in the NFL. This game could turn into a shoot-out in a hurry, which means Carr will have to overcome a strong secondary for the fourth straight week. Regardless, he’s a must-start as long as he is moving the ball this efficiently.
Austin Ekeler (RB, LAC)
Austin Ekeler is still trying to reach the ridiculous ceiling that fantasy managers envisioned for him in this year’s drafts, but he’s still extremely valuable, especially in PPR formats. Ekeler has regained his all-purpose role after not seeing a target in Week 1 against Washington (he still had 15 carries for 57 yards and a touchdown that week). In Weeks 2 and 3, Ekeler has combined for 20 carries for 109 yards and added 15 receptions (on 15 targets) for 52 yards and a touchdown. The Raiders are a middle-of-the-road defense against running backs, allowing an average of 19 points per week to the position. They’ve struggled more on the ground (53 carries for 233 yards and three touchdowns) than through the air (13 catches on 20 targets for 96 yards and a touchdown), but they haven’t faced a running back with the usage of Ekeler this season. He’s a must-start once again in Week 4.
Josh Jacobs (RB, LVR)
Jacobs has missed the last two games due to foot and ankle injuries, but there is plenty of optimism in Las Vegas that he will be ready to go Week 4. Jacobs logged a practice on Thursday and Jon Gruden has expressed that he is hopeful Jacobs will be able to play. Last we saw Jacobs, he carried the ball 10 times for 34 yards and two touchdowns while catching one pass for six yards. He looked hobbled by lower-body injuries. Gruden football involves a workhorse running back, so if Jacobs is playing he should be out on the field. The Chargers have had no interest in stopping running backs this year (21.7 points per game, 510 total yards, three touchdowns), so Jacobs should be a startable asset if he’s active. There is a risk of re-aggravation with his injury, so beware of that.
Keenan Allen (WR, LAC)
Lost in the Mike Williams breakout is the fact that Keenan Allen is still a very good and very dependable receiving option in all league formats. Through three games, Allen has been targeted 33 times, including two games in the double-digits. He’s caught at least eight passes twice this season and gone over 100-yards twice this season. The one game he didn’t, he scored his only touchdown. Allen is a must-start every week and is nearly a lock for double-digit points. The Chargers pass enough to support two wide receivers easily each game.
Mike Williams (WR, LAC)
The development of Justin Herbert and new offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi has officially unlocked Mike Williams. Being healthy has been a huge advantage for the fifth-year wide receiver as well. Through three games, Williams has been targeted at least nine times per game, caught at least seven passes, had at least 82 yards, and scored at least one touchdown. Williams is seeing huge target totals out of the ‘X’ receiver position that Lombardi used to make Michael Thomas a fantasy force. It is also difficult for teams to take him away thanks to Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler. While the Chargers’ passing game is clicking, Williams is a must-start in all formats thanks to his high-floor thanks to volume and his high-ceiling thanks to the red zone targets he gets every week.
Henry Ruggs III (WR, LVR)
Henry Ruggs III has yet to live up to the promise that made him an early first-round pick last season, but there are encouraging signs for him through the first three games of the year. In the last two games, Ruggs has been targeted at least seven times, caught at least four passes, and has at least 78 receiving yards. He’s also gotten two carries for minimal gains. Ruggs is showing that he isn’t just a field stretcher, catching more balls on the sideline and slant patterns through the last two games. The Chargers have been strong against wide receivers this season (13.4 points per week), but all Ruggs needs is a deep shot or a catch in stride to outrun everybody and score massive points. If he’s going to get a consistent five targets a game, he’s worth a FLEX spot.
Darren Waller (TE, LVR)
Waller erupted in his first game against Baltimore (19 targets, 10 receptions, 105 yards, and a touchdown), but has failed to hit that level of production since. Don’t get it wrong though, he’s still a statistical lock at a position that is lacking consistency. In Weeks 2 and 3 combined Waller has 10 catches on 14 targets for 119 yards and zero touchdowns. The development of Henry Ruggs III and Bryan Edwards has cut into his dominating target share, but he is still far and away one of the more productive tight ends in the league. If you drafted him in the second (or third) round of this year’s fantasy drafts, he’s an instant start as long as he’s healthy.
Jared Cook (TE, LAC)
After a strong first week (five catches on eight targets for 56 yards), Jared Cook has settled back into the fourth option in the Los Angeles Chargers’ passing game. Cook has just eight targets, five catches, and 55 yards in his last two weeks against Dallas and Kansas City. Unfortunately, Cook should have had a touchdown against Dallas (it was called back on a penalty) which would make him a more appealing fantasy object. The positive? Cook has seen his snap share rise each week (58% in Week 1, 59% in Week 2, and 70% in Week 3), allowing him to get targets, especially in the red zone with teams keying in on Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. The Chargers are giving up 18.2 fantasy points per week and were hit for 100-yards by Travis Kelce last week. If Derwin James is still playing through the injury that happened in Week 3, then Cook may be able to find his way in the end zone, which is all that is needed to secure a top-10 finish at the position.
Consider Sitting
Peyton Barber (RB, LVR)
If Josh Jacobs is healthy, it's going to be very difficult for Peyton Barber to return value as even a FLEX option in fantasy lineups. Barber has taken the lead back role with Jacobs out and even had a strong week against Miami in Week 3. Barber rushed 23 times for 111 yards and a touchdown while adding three receptions (on five targets) for 31 yards. We haven’t seen a game with Jacobs, Barber, and Kenyan Drake active, making it impossible to predict his role if Jacobs is good to go. Barber is a sit with potential sleeper upside if the Raiders opt to rest Jacobs for one more week.
Donald Parham (TE, LAC)
Donald Parham started getting a lot of hype late in the redraft cycle but so far that hasn’t come to fruition. Despite playing at least 47% of the team’s snaps in 2021, Parham has just two targets, one reception, and 19 yards. The Chargers’ offense has plenty of weapons and they have all managed to stay healthy. Unless something happens to Jared Cook or the wide receivers, Parham isn’t likely to hit much value unless he finds his way into red zone packages.
Potential Sleepers
Kenyan Drake (RB, LVR)
The Raiders paid a lot of money to Kenyan Drake to give him a primary pass-catching role. Through three games (two without Josh Jacobs), Drake has just 21 carries for 44 yards. However, during that time he also had 13 receptions on 17 targets for 138 yards, giving him some PPR upside. He surrendered the lead rushing role to Peyton Barber during the time Jacobs was out, defining his role as strictly a third-down back. The Chargers have an explosive passing attack, which could lead to a big day for Drake if the Raiders struggle to keep up early. In PPR leagues, there is a path to Drake having a playable week in fantasy.
Bryan Edwards (WR, LVR)
Bryan Edwards has been up and down in his second season, but he has been an absolute force late in games and in overtime for the Raiders this year. In total, Edwards has 13 targets, 10 receptions, and 210 yards in three weeks. He just missed a touchdown in Week 1, but it is seemingly just a matter of time until he finds the end zone. Edwards has seen his snap share rise each week (66% in Week 1 to 76% in Week 3), which suggests the Raiders are starting to realize his utility in this offense. He’ll always be competing with Waller and Ruggs for catches on the perimeter, but he has the size and skillset to have a big game at any time.
Jalen Guyton (WR, LAC)
Jalen Guyton isn’t a primary option for the Chargers’ passing attack (just eight targets, five receptions, and 62 yards on the season), however, he does have upside as a player who is consistently playing a 60%+ snap share operating as the primary deep threat in Los Angeles. Guyton flashed big-play ability last season (three games with at least 70 receiving yards), but he’s more of a dart throw DFS play than a lineup staple at this point in the fantasy season. Only play him in matchups with the direst straits.
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