Mock Draft Review: ADP Risers and Fallers

May 24, 2020

Mike Schwarzenbach reviews the results of RotoBaller's recent mock fantasy baseball draft in mid-May 2020 to find the biggest ADP risers and fallers since March.

It's Memorial Day weekend, which means it's time to pick some flowers, fire up the BBQ, and do fantasy baseball mock drafts. Well, one of those things doesn't quite belong, but in these uncertain times, it's never a bad idea to do another draft and see how things stand.

With MLB owners and the Player's Association discussing how baseball will be played in 2020, there is cautious optimism we will see Major League Baseball in some form early in July. And while specifics for the season are still being debated, the latest reports suggest the season will be roughly 80 games in length, played in home ballparks. Other proposed changes will have an impact on fantasy drafts as well. We are all-but-certain to see a universal DH, and the schedules will be based on geography rather than AL and NL.

We at RotoBaller set up a 12-team, 5x5 roto mock draft to re-evaluate how we see players performing in what will be a very strange season. The draft was 24-rounds with starting lineups of three outfielders, corner and middle infield slots, and nine pitchers with no distinction between starters and relievers. While most of the picks felt similar to pre-pandemic average draft position (ADP), there were certainly players who have seen their value change based on the season being delayed. Below we'll examine some players who have seen their stock change and what we can expect from them in 2020.

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Mock Draft Board

All ADP data is based on NFBC drafts from February 1 through March 15, and April 1 through May 15. See full draft results here.

Click on each image for a full-size view.

ADP Risers

Dylan Bundy, Los Angeles Angels

Bundy was one of my favorite sleepers coming into the season and not much has changed as evidenced by reaching for him at 183rd overall. Bundy has seen his stock climb with an ADP of 213 in drafts after April 1, compared to 246th overall during the traditional draft season. Unlike the other players on this list, however, there isn't one specific reason that can justify the steep climb up draft boards other than drafters realizing how good he can be with a few minor improvements and some better luck.

Bundy has been an enigma to start his career as his results haven't matched his talent. His 5.45 ERA in 2018 was among the worst in the game and he didn't improve much last season sporting a 4.79 mark which was backed up by a 4.73 FIP. Some of those struggles can be chalked up to pitching on a poor defensive team in a very hitter-friendly ballpark, so there is optimism a move to the west coast could help. He averaged over a strikeout per inning each of the past two seasons and was off to a hot start in Spring Training, as evidenced by his sparkling 16:1 strikeout to walk ratio in 11 1/3 innings.

Jesus Luzardo, Oakland Athletics

Perhaps no player has gained as much value for the 2020 season than the A's prized pitching prospect. Luzardo is one of the most exciting young players in the game, but was not expected to pitch a full season due to the A's limiting his innings and saving him for a possible playoff run. With the season shortened, those concerns go out the window leaving fantasy drafters salivating at the thought of drafting the flamethrowing 22-year-old lefty.

Luzardo showed his MLB readiness last season when he struck out 16 batters in just 12 innings and has averaged better than a strikeout per inning at every stop in the minors thanks to a power fastball that touches 99 MPH. He was having a great Spring Training as well allowing just two runs through 12 innings with 16 strikeouts. Given the fact he'll be available for the full season, his ADP of 90th overall may still be too low for a pitcher of his caliber.

Shogo Akiyama, Cincinnati Reds

Agiyama isn't someone who has risen up the ADP boards, but if this mock draft is any indication, he will soon. Akiyama went with the sixth pick in the 15th round (174th overall) which is well above his current ADP of 261. This is because Akiyama is one of the biggest benefactors of the proposed MLB schedule. Had the season started as scheduled, Akiyama would have likely been the fourth outfielder on the Reds or wound up in a platoon situation. Now, with the universal DH, Akiyama should have a clear path to regular playing time.

Akiyama is an unknown to the Major Leagues, but based on his career in Japan he should hit for average, a very valuable skill late in rotisserie drafts. Akiyama was fifth in the league with a .303 batting average and has hit over .300 in four of the past five years, including .359 in 2015. He has also shown some speed with double-digit steals every season since 2015. The Reds still have a logjam of outfielders, but Akiyama should be in the lineup more often than if the season started as normal which makes him a nice sleeper late in drafts.

ADP Fallers

Justin Verlander, Houston Astros

Verlander was one of the most valuable players in fantasy last season, but injury concerns have him sliding down draft boards. Verlander is currently recovering from groin surgery and a lat strain, but should be ready for the start of the season according to reports. Fantasy drafters have been less optimistic for the Cy Young winner. His ADP (20th) is seven spots lower than his pre-pandemic ADP (13th), but this early in the draft those draft spots have a bigger impact.

In this draft, Verlander slid into the third round which would be great value for a pitcher of his caliber. Verlander's strikeout rate has been above 30-percent each of the last two seasons and last year he punched out 300 batters, one of just two pitchers to hit the 300 mark. His 2.58 ERA was slightly better than his 3.18 xFIP, but both numbers were top-five among all qualified pitchers. The injuries are a concern for the 37-year old veteran, but the upside is too tantalizing to pass up if he is available at his ADP.

Gavin Lux, Los Angeles Dodgers

Lux is one of the most promising young players in the game but is also someone that has seen his fantasy stock take a hit due to the season being delayed. The Dodgers platoon players as much as any team in the Majors and expanded rosters will give baseball's deepest roster more options to hide Lux from southpaws. Lux has just nine career at-bats vs lefties and likely won't accrue many this season given the expanded rosters, which would put a dent in his fantasy value for this season. ADP has reflected this fear thus far with his post-pandemic ADP falling 10 spots behind his ADP from March. He fell even further in this mock, lasting until pick 188 overall, two full rounds below his ADP.

Jo Adell, Los Angeles Angels

Adell, like Lux, is someone that will see significantly less playing time than if the season had started in March. Before the season was suspended, the Angels had said Adell would need more time in the minors. GM Billy Epler confirmed that plans for Adell have not changed given the delayed season saying, "If the players still had more seasoning needed, then we can't achieve that until they get those tests. The best way to get those tests is to be playing baseball. It doesn't change the potential plan." Adell was being drafted 222nd overall on average before the season was suspended, despite being a long shot to make the Opening Day roster. With minor league baseball unlikely to happen this season, Adell won't get that seasoning in Triple-A, but the Angels don't sound like they are in a rush to hand the 21-year old outfielder an everyday job.

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