RADIO
Antonio looks at historical MMA DFS stats and data from UFC fights since 2019 to identify the worst daily fantasy UFC fighters over the past 18 months.
This has definitely been a weird year thanks to the COVID-19 pandemic that caught us by surprise and paralyzed the sports world for a while. Even with that, we're about to reach the midway point of 2020, and the UFC has kept putting on events during the last six months. Since January, when Conor McGregor and Donald Cerrone kicked off the year with UFC 246, we have seen 14 UFC events (either Fight Nights or numbered cards) completed. That means there have been 157 fights this year as of Jun. 17.
As most fighters take some time between their bouts, it wouldn't make much sense to only analyze the fights and performances to take place in that span of six months. That's why I have looked back at the start of 2019. Instead of just 14 events, we're now looking at 56 since Jan. 19 of last year. Much better.
In this article, I will explore some fantasy stats from all of those fights to try and come up with some names that have flopped lately. I won't be looking at the very worst fighters without winning histories, but rather at all-time good fighters that have been on the low side of things. Don't forget to check out all of our MMA Content here at RotoBaller, and give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana!
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UFC Least Successful Fighters
In order to limit the field of fighters I'm working with and make things more interesting, I have only considered fighters with at least four bouts since the start of 2019, and that have racked up a minimum of 300 DKFP over their careers. That last number is a little arbitrary but makes for a good cutoff that leaves only good fighters and perennial contenders in the sample analyzed.
There have been 10 such fighters in that group, and these have been the worst in the past year and a half.
As you see, Jeremy Stephens is the only fighter of the group without a single win to his name. He has been so bad, in fact, that in those four fights, he hasn't even been able to reach the 100-FP mark, being more than doubled by second-worst Andrei Arlovski in that span.
With the exception of Angela Hill, all of the other fighters highlighted here are on the tail-end of their careers and did debut in the UFC over a decade ago (or nearly there, in the case of Pettis; 2011). Speaking of Hill, and although she's had one of the lowest DKFP/F averages at 64.86, the truth is that with seven fights in a year and a half, she offers a quite high floor even when losing almost half of her bouts.
UFC Lowest Fantasy Scorers (Total FP)
Quick note: I have expanded the field of fighters to those with three or more fights since 2019 instead of four. Up to 52 fighters made the cut this time around instead of 10.
Even in the worst of performances (barring getting KO'd in a matter of seconds). every fighter should at least put on some fantasy numbers if only thanks to landing some significant strikes before being defeated. Both Raphael Assuncao and Michael Johnson were plain atrocious in their three fights, and it is not that they didn't have time to bulk their fantasy tallies.
Assuncao lost his three fights, and only once was he defeated inside the first round (3:17 minutes in). In the other two bouts, he logged 10 and 15 minutes inside the octagon. Even with that, he could only score 43.3 and 8.5 DKFP while being eaten alive and absolutely restricted in his outcomes. If not for a good grappling performance (22 DKFP on takedowns) versus Cory Sandhagen, his total points would have been even lower.
Johnson didn't even attempt a takedown himself, let alone land one. He never was defeated inside the first round, with the earliest loss coming inside the second round. Even with that, the most points he could ever get in a single fight were 39 against Stevie Ray.
Francisco Trinaldo comes out as perhaps the worst-looking guy of this bunch, though. His 2-1 winning record is the only positive one among those fighters in the group, but that didn't help him in fantasy contests. Trinaldo is a low volume, marathon fighter. He went the distance all three times, topped at 57.5 points, and barely gets takedown points. Terrible combination worth avoiding in every fantasy slate you find him in.
UFC Lowest Fantasy Scorers (FP Per Fight)
While total fantasy points are what ultimately matters (the more, the better!), you might be more interested in actual fantasy points per fight. Here are the only fighters to average fewer than 50 DKFP per fight while appearing in at least three of them since the start of 2019 (the 250+ career-DKFP remains in place).
Some names reappear here for the second time in a row, and there are a few that are kind of surprising considering the careers those fighters have sustained over the past few years. Enter former champions Junior Dos Santos and Jose Aldo.
After losing the strip to Stipe Miocic in 2017, Dos Santos rebounded and won three fights in a row, the last of them in 2019. He did lose the next two, though, thus carrying a 1-2 record since then. He did KO Derrick Lewis in his lone win, racking up all of 94.5 DKFP mostly due to a sweet 70-point early-finish bonus, but he was KO'd himself in the other two inside the first and second rounds, getting just a putrid 2.0 and 3.5 DKFP respectively. Not a great outlook going forward, to say the least.
Aldo's career-flight log is barely believable. He stringed 11 consecutive title fights, won seven of them in a row, and finally surrendered the belt to McGregor in 2015. His last two were losses to Max Holloway. After those two losses, he rebounded with two wins (the last one in 2019), but he went back to the L column in his last two 2019 bouts, both 15-minute decisions. Present-day Aldo is a much lower-volume fighter, has completely forgotten about the ground game of his early days, and could only get 14.5 and 29.0 DKFP in those last two fights even going the distance. He will fight against Petr Yan for the bantamweight title in UFC 251, but all odds are against the former champ given his recent form.
UFC Worst Strikers
Other than Dos Santos and Tim Means, all of the other fighters in the next list have logged at least 1,000 seconds inside the octagon (that is more than 16 minutes of fighting time, the equivalent to three-plus rounds). It makes sense for Dos Santos or Miller to score low in this category, as they have been ousted quicker than others more often, but things are way more embarrassing (on the striking side alone, remember) for the rest of the men to appear here.
Consider Demian Maia. In four fights and 34+ minutes of fighting time, he has averaged just 9.5 DKSS per bout. You'd be surprised to know, though, that his 70.75 DKFP per fight is one of the best marks from the past year and a half. For someone with such low upside on the striking game, he makes up for it with his tremendous grappling abilities. Maia won't get the "easy" points via SS, but he's a menace with his takedowns, advances, and reversals.
Joseph Benavidez poses a similar case. Although he's below the 20-DKSS mark per contest, he averages 18 DKFP only via TD/RV/ADV, and that makes up for his lack of striking success. Benavidez had two chances to beat Demetrious Johnson for the flyweight belt in the past (2012 and 2013) and lost both times. He'll fight for the same belt, now vacant, next July versus Deiveson Figueiredo, to whom he lost his last bout this past February. Given the outcome in that bout (23 DKFP for Benavidez) and how Figueiredo prevented Benavidez from landing a single takedown, if that repeats itself, then Joseph Benavidez would make for a sure fade on that fight.
UFC Worst Grapplers
None of the fighters listed here has landed a single takedown in the past year and a half, and only Irene Aldana, Vicente Luque, and Aljamain Sterling got fantasy points thanks to Advances on the ground while taken down by other fighters.
You can make two clear distinctions among the fighters included in the group above. Those who are bad on the ground but make up for that lack of ability with monstrous striking (Sterling, Luke, Holloway, Aldana), and those that can't help themselves no matter how you look at them (Johnson, Karolina Kowalkiewicz, Jessica Eye).
Aljamain Sterling has been on a clear ascendant path since 2018. He has stringed five wins, the last one, via submission. But that is not what makes Sterling great. Aljamain's fantasy upside comes from his great striking, as he lands over 60% of the strikes he attempts and is normally over 45 DKFP per fight only on that side of the game.
Vicente Luque has been fantastic too. Yes, he dropped one fight last year versus Stephen Thompson (decision), but other than that, he's holding an 11-2 record in the UFC and has won seven of his last eight bouts. He hasn't even attempted a single takedown in all of those eight fights, but even with that, he has averaged 96.8 DKFP per fight with 47.2 of them coming via DKSS and the rest thanks to knockdowns and early-finish bonuses.
UFC Worst Finishers
DraftKings awards 90, 70, 45, 40, and 30 extra fantasy points for finishing the fight early (from first-round knockout to just winning the fight at all). That is why it makes sense to find all-win fighters leading the way and among fighters with more than 60 DKFC per fight (extra points) on average.
The most important takeaway from this leaderboard, though, can be extracted from the "minus" column at the right side of the table. That column (mDKFP/F) represents the fantasy points those fighters would have averaged without accounting for their extra points bonuses.
Take Max Holloway. In his three fights, he has only earned 30 DKFP (those from his lone win, the minimum possible) and, therefore, just 10 per fight. Even with that, his points "minus" bonuses are so close to his actual point-average. That's good to some extent, as it doesn't make him early-finish-dependant.
On the other hand, Donald Cerrone has fought six times since the start of 2019. He earned 30 bonus points once, and 70 (a second-round KO) in the other win. Had it not been for those extra 100 DKFP he'd have averaged just 39.25 fantasy points, 15 fewer than his actual ones. Even taking only his two wins into account, his average would drop from 122 DKFP in those two to a much lower 72 without the extra goodies.
