X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

MLB Pitcher Studs and Duds - Advanced Metrics Leaders for wOBA (Week 23)

Spencer Strider fantasy baseball rankings waiver wire pickups draft sleepers starting pitchers

Connelly examines fantasy baseball pitcher risers and fallers, whose wOBA could make them adds, drops, or trade targets for Week 23.

Welcome back to fantasy baseball and RotoBaller’s Statcast Pitcher Studs and Duds article series! Each week, I select one advanced metric, choose two pitchers with strong values and two with poor values, and analyze what those values may mean for future performance.

This week, I will focus on a stat that describes how pitchers have performed overall: weighted on-base average (wOBA). wOBA is used to establish the value a player brings per plate appearance using unintentional walks, base hits, and hit-by-pitches. It is scaled like an on-base percentage.

It is a nice catch-all metric to gauge player performance. While I have looked at expected wOBA throughout this season, how a pitcher should have performed is not as important as how they have actually performed at this point in the season.  

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

Fantasy managers cannot afford to make start-vs.-sit mistakes in the final few weeks, so overall performance metrics can very useful. To that end, let's take a closer look at wOBA!

 

wOBA Studs for Fantasy Baseball

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, September 11, 2022.

Spencer Strider: Atlanta Braves
10-4, 2.69 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, .231 wOBA

Spencer Strider started as a fantasy non-factor in the Braves' bullpen but has been an absolute stud since he joined the rotation at the end of May. The 23-year-old has compiled a stellar 2.69 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, and a ridiculous 38.1% strikeout rate. Consequently, his .231 wOBA is one of the best among starting pitchers.

While his strikeout numbers have been elite, Strider tends to throw a lot of pitches, which have led to some short starts. Do fantasy managers have anything to worry about for the end of the season?

Strider's performance as a starter has been extremely impressive, especially because he essentially relies on only two pitches. He has managed his high strikeout rate and 15.5% swinging-strike rate thanks to a 98.2-MPH fastball with a ton of spin and a hard slider. He has allowed weak contact when hitters have connected, with an exit velocity in the 70th percentile of baseball and a hard-hit rate in the 71st.

Strider's overall Statcast profile is stellar, except for his walk rate. His 8.5% walk rate certainly leaves something to be desired and eats up his pitch count, which already tends to be higher due to all of his strikeouts. This has led to some disappointing outings, but Strider's upside is too great to take any action on this.

Strider has proved to be a dangerous fantasy option with immense upside, and every player has the occasional off day or bad start. The fact that his wOBA has been so solid despite his walks is a testament to how well he has pitched. I see Strider as a must-start for the rest of the season, with the hope that he can avoid one of his short starts.

Zac Gallen: Arizona Diamondbacks
11-2, 2.42 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, .248 wOBA

Zac Gallen experienced multiple injuries in 2021 and saw his overall results regress in 2021. However, he has clearly bounced back this season with a 2.42 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 25.6% strikeout rate, and .248 wOBA. How has Gallen done so well this season?

The simple explanation is that Gallen has more or less pitched like he had before he got hurt. He has given up slightly harder contact than 2019-2020, although still above average, but has lowered his launch angle to a career-low 10.3 degrees. He still relies primarily on his four-seamer at 48.1% but has gotten great results with it while also mixing in a curveball, changeup, and cutter.

He has taken relative steps forward in terms of limiting walks, as indicated by his wOBA. He has managed a career-low 6.7% walk rate, which has led to a career-low WHIP. He has also experienced a career-low BABIP at .235.

Gallen has returned to being a strong fantasy asset this season now that he's healthy. He has pitched with a high floor, has averaged almost six innings per start, and has been backed lately by a surprisingly hot offense. He will have some tough in-division matchups down the stretch, but his season-long success gives me trust in him.

 

wOBA Duds for Fantasy Baseball

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, September 11, 2022.

Lucas Giolito: Chicago White Sox
10-9, 5.18 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, .356 wOBA

Lucas Giolito has been a huge fantasy disappointment this season. Despite still being rostered in 90 percent of leagues, Giolito has one of baseball's highest wOBAs at .356. Fantasy managers have not given up on him, but is there too much at risk to trust him now?

There are a few underlying signs that Giolito has gotten unlucky this season. Despite a middling batted-ball profile (his exit velocity and hard-hit rate are in the 50th and 35th percentiles of baseball to go with a 13-degree launch angle), his BABIP is very high at .352. Further, his 4.26 xERA, 3.64 xFIP, and 3.78 SIERA all suggest that he has performed better than his peripherals and wOBA.

This is a good example of players' performance not aligning with their underlying metrics. Fantasy managers have trusted in Giolito throughout the season despite his performance, and while he may be a nice buy-low candidate for next season, I would hesitate to trust him in the fantasy playoffs.

Giolito will potentially face tough matchups at the Guardians, against the Guardians, at the Twins, and at the Padres. I would rather not have to rely on him than hope to see some positive regressions over the final month of the season.

Josiah Gray: Washington Nationals
7-9, 5.06 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, .355 wOBA

Josiah Gray was a highly-touted fantasy prospect but has not panned out in his first two seasons. He has managed a bloated 5.06 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, and .355 wOBA through his 25 starts with the Nationals this season. The 24-year-old is only rostered in 29 percent of leagues now, but what could fantasy managers in dynasty leagues expect from him in the future?

The two things that stand out for Gray are his launch angle and his lack of command. He hasn't given up particularly hard contact, but his 21.2-degree launch angle has led to a 50.8% flyball rate, a 19.6% HR/FB rate, and a 2.46 HR/9 rate.

Gray has walked too many hitters when he isn't giving up home runs. His 10.4% walk rate has led to a 4.10 BB/9 rate and has contributed to his high WHIP. The culprit behind both issues has been his four-seamer, as he has thrown it up in the zone but only in the zone 53.5% of the time and has a .290 batting average and .694 slugging percentage against.

Gray does have a three-pitch mix and his slider and curveball have been quite effective, but his fastball has gotten him into trouble. It does seem that Gray could use his skillset to become an effective pitcher, either by throwing his fastball lower in the zone or maybe by throwing the pitch less in general. Either way, I do not think that those adjustments will get figured out this season.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Sabermetrics and Statcast Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Griffin Conine

To Have Shoulder Surgery On Tuesday
Luke Keaschall

Twins Prospect Luke Keaschall Suffers Broken Forearm
Logan Gilbert

Leaves Friday's Start With Forearm Tightness

Vikings Select Tai Felton To Finish Day 2

Seahawks Select Quarterback Jalen Milroe With The 92nd Pick Overall

Browns Select Dillon Gabriel 94th Overall

Packers Pick Savion Williams At No. 87 overall

Steelers Snag Kaleb Johnson In Round 3

Broncos Select Wide Receiver Pat Bryant With The 74th Overall Pick

Texans Select Jaylin Noel With 79th Pick

Lions Select Wide Receiver Isaac TeSlaa With The 70th Overall Pick
Jack Leiter

To Start On Sunday

Patriots Add Wide Receiver Kyle Williams In Round 3

Browns Draft Harold Fannin Jr. With 67th Pick
Garrett Mitchell

Makes Early Exit
Luke Keaschall

Removed Early On Friday
Blake Snell

Likely Avoids Major Injury
Cole Ragans

Dealing With Mild Groin Strain

Broncos Add RJ Harvey To Backfield With 60th Pick

Raiders Select Jack Bech With 58th Pick

Chargers Add Wide Receiver Tre Harris In Round 2
Detroit Lions

Lions Acquire 57th Pick From Broncos

Seahawks Draft Elijah Arroyo 50th Overall
Carolina Panthers

Panthers Acquire 51st Pick From Broncos
Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals Snag Will Johnson At No. 47

Jets Add A Pass-Catcher With Mason Taylor At No. 42

Rams Select Terrance Ferguson With 46th Pick
Houston Texans

Texans Acquire 48th Pick From Raiders, Draft Aireontae Ersery

Saints Snag Tyler Shough At No. 40
Brenton Doyle

Out For Personal Reasons On Friday
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Gary Payton II

Iffy For Saturday's Action
Jayson Tatum

Officially Available On Friday For Game 3 Against Magic
Will Smith

Back From Injury On Friday
Luke Kennard

Questionable For Game 4 On Saturday
Darius Garland

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Ja Morant

To Miss Game 4 On Saturday
Rui Hachimura

Available For Game 3 In Minnesota
Aaron Ekblad

Available To Return Saturday
Erik Swanson

Ryan Burr Progressing
Daulton Varsho

To Return On Tuesday At The Latest
Max Scherzer

Takes Positive Step On Friday
Aleksander Barkov

Questionable For Saturday
Gabriel Landeskog

Set For Larger Role In Game 4
Calvin Pickard

To Start Game 3 For Oilers
Randy Arozarena

Resting For First Time This Year
Jonas Siegenthaler

To Play Limited Minutes In Game 3
MLB

Red Sox-Guardians Game Postponed On Friday
Luke Hughes

Remains Out On Friday
MLB

Tigers-Orioles Postponed On Friday
Patrik Laine

A Game-Time Decision Friday
Yainer Diaz

Out On Friday Against Royals
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Hopes To Start Rehab Assignment Next Week
Salvador Perez

Sitting Out For First Time This Season
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 3 On Friday
Brendan Donovan

Back In Action On Friday
Jimmy Butler III

Could Miss Game 3 On Saturday
Coby Mayo

Getting On A Roll At Triple-A
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Cade Cunningham

Collects Double-Double In Loss
Jalen Brunson

Drops 30 Points In Game 3
Karl-Anthony Towns

Leads All Scorers In Game 3 Victory
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Sergei Bobrovsky

Shuts Out Lightning In Game 2
Cam Fowler

Finishes Thursday's Win With Five Points
Robert Thomas

Posts Four Assists In Game 3 Win
Pavel Buchnevich

Celebrates Hat Trick During Four-Point Performance
Dylan DeMelo

Battling An Illness
Marcus Johansson

Exits Early Thursday
Aleksander Barkov

Hurt In Game 2
Jrue Holiday

Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Rasmus Ristolainen

To Miss Training Camp
Jonas Siegenthaler

Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event