X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

MLB Pitcher Studs and Duds - Advanced Metrics Leaders for wOBA (Week 23)

Spencer Strider fantasy baseball rankings waiver wire pickups draft sleepers starting pitchers

Connelly examines fantasy baseball pitcher risers and fallers, whose wOBA could make them adds, drops, or trade targets for Week 23.

Welcome back to fantasy baseball and RotoBaller’s Statcast Pitcher Studs and Duds article series! Each week, I select one advanced metric, choose two pitchers with strong values and two with poor values, and analyze what those values may mean for future performance.

This week, I will focus on a stat that describes how pitchers have performed overall: weighted on-base average (wOBA). wOBA is used to establish the value a player brings per plate appearance using unintentional walks, base hits, and hit-by-pitches. It is scaled like an on-base percentage.

It is a nice catch-all metric to gauge player performance. While I have looked at expected wOBA throughout this season, how a pitcher should have performed is not as important as how they have actually performed at this point in the season.  

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

Fantasy managers cannot afford to make start-vs.-sit mistakes in the final few weeks, so overall performance metrics can very useful. To that end, let's take a closer look at wOBA!

 

wOBA Studs for Fantasy Baseball

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, September 11, 2022.

Spencer Strider: Atlanta Braves
10-4, 2.69 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, .231 wOBA

Spencer Strider started as a fantasy non-factor in the Braves' bullpen but has been an absolute stud since he joined the rotation at the end of May. The 23-year-old has compiled a stellar 2.69 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, and a ridiculous 38.1% strikeout rate. Consequently, his .231 wOBA is one of the best among starting pitchers.

While his strikeout numbers have been elite, Strider tends to throw a lot of pitches, which have led to some short starts. Do fantasy managers have anything to worry about for the end of the season?

Strider's performance as a starter has been extremely impressive, especially because he essentially relies on only two pitches. He has managed his high strikeout rate and 15.5% swinging-strike rate thanks to a 98.2-MPH fastball with a ton of spin and a hard slider. He has allowed weak contact when hitters have connected, with an exit velocity in the 70th percentile of baseball and a hard-hit rate in the 71st.

Strider's overall Statcast profile is stellar, except for his walk rate. His 8.5% walk rate certainly leaves something to be desired and eats up his pitch count, which already tends to be higher due to all of his strikeouts. This has led to some disappointing outings, but Strider's upside is too great to take any action on this.

Strider has proved to be a dangerous fantasy option with immense upside, and every player has the occasional off day or bad start. The fact that his wOBA has been so solid despite his walks is a testament to how well he has pitched. I see Strider as a must-start for the rest of the season, with the hope that he can avoid one of his short starts.

Zac Gallen: Arizona Diamondbacks
11-2, 2.42 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, .248 wOBA

Zac Gallen experienced multiple injuries in 2021 and saw his overall results regress in 2021. However, he has clearly bounced back this season with a 2.42 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 25.6% strikeout rate, and .248 wOBA. How has Gallen done so well this season?

The simple explanation is that Gallen has more or less pitched like he had before he got hurt. He has given up slightly harder contact than 2019-2020, although still above average, but has lowered his launch angle to a career-low 10.3 degrees. He still relies primarily on his four-seamer at 48.1% but has gotten great results with it while also mixing in a curveball, changeup, and cutter.

He has taken relative steps forward in terms of limiting walks, as indicated by his wOBA. He has managed a career-low 6.7% walk rate, which has led to a career-low WHIP. He has also experienced a career-low BABIP at .235.

Gallen has returned to being a strong fantasy asset this season now that he's healthy. He has pitched with a high floor, has averaged almost six innings per start, and has been backed lately by a surprisingly hot offense. He will have some tough in-division matchups down the stretch, but his season-long success gives me trust in him.

 

wOBA Duds for Fantasy Baseball

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, September 11, 2022.

Lucas Giolito: Chicago White Sox
10-9, 5.18 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, .356 wOBA

Lucas Giolito has been a huge fantasy disappointment this season. Despite still being rostered in 90 percent of leagues, Giolito has one of baseball's highest wOBAs at .356. Fantasy managers have not given up on him, but is there too much at risk to trust him now?

There are a few underlying signs that Giolito has gotten unlucky this season. Despite a middling batted-ball profile (his exit velocity and hard-hit rate are in the 50th and 35th percentiles of baseball to go with a 13-degree launch angle), his BABIP is very high at .352. Further, his 4.26 xERA, 3.64 xFIP, and 3.78 SIERA all suggest that he has performed better than his peripherals and wOBA.

This is a good example of players' performance not aligning with their underlying metrics. Fantasy managers have trusted in Giolito throughout the season despite his performance, and while he may be a nice buy-low candidate for next season, I would hesitate to trust him in the fantasy playoffs.

Giolito will potentially face tough matchups at the Guardians, against the Guardians, at the Twins, and at the Padres. I would rather not have to rely on him than hope to see some positive regressions over the final month of the season.

Josiah Gray: Washington Nationals
7-9, 5.06 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, .355 wOBA

Josiah Gray was a highly-touted fantasy prospect but has not panned out in his first two seasons. He has managed a bloated 5.06 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, and .355 wOBA through his 25 starts with the Nationals this season. The 24-year-old is only rostered in 29 percent of leagues now, but what could fantasy managers in dynasty leagues expect from him in the future?

The two things that stand out for Gray are his launch angle and his lack of command. He hasn't given up particularly hard contact, but his 21.2-degree launch angle has led to a 50.8% flyball rate, a 19.6% HR/FB rate, and a 2.46 HR/9 rate.

Gray has walked too many hitters when he isn't giving up home runs. His 10.4% walk rate has led to a 4.10 BB/9 rate and has contributed to his high WHIP. The culprit behind both issues has been his four-seamer, as he has thrown it up in the zone but only in the zone 53.5% of the time and has a .290 batting average and .694 slugging percentage against.

Gray does have a three-pitch mix and his slider and curveball have been quite effective, but his fastball has gotten him into trouble. It does seem that Gray could use his skillset to become an effective pitcher, either by throwing his fastball lower in the zone or maybe by throwing the pitch less in general. Either way, I do not think that those adjustments will get figured out this season.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Sabermetrics and Statcast Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Miles Boykin1 hour ago

Heading To Chicago
Jalen Wilson2 hours ago

Sidelined On Thursday
Baker Mayfield2 hours ago

Tampa Bay Restructures Baker Mayfield's Deal
Case Keenum2 hours ago

Chicago Signs Case Keenum To One-Year Deal
Kyshawn George2 hours ago

Unavailable For Thursday
Richaun Holmes2 hours ago

Out Versus Magic
Khris Middleton2 hours ago

Out Again Thursday Versus Magic
D'Angelo Russell3 hours ago

Good To Go On Thursday
Noah Clowney3 hours ago

Done For Rest Of The Season
Jordan Poole3 hours ago

Unavailable For Thursday
Scottie Barnes3 hours ago

Available On Thursday
Cedric Mullins3 hours ago

Goes Deep In Loss To Boston
Jonathan Drouin3 hours ago

Martin Necas, Jonathan Drouin Unavailable Thursday
Tyrese Maxey3 hours ago

Expected To Miss Rest Of Season
Alexandar Georgiev3 hours ago

Nursing An Upper-Body Injury
Henry Thrun3 hours ago

Returns From Nine-Game Absence Thursday
Taijuan Walker3 hours ago

Blanks Rockies For Six Innings To Earn First Win
Tanner Houck3 hours ago

Picks Up No-Decision In Four-Inning Outing
Olli Määttä3 hours ago

Olli Maatta Returns To Utah Lineup Thursday
Alex Bregman4 hours ago

Fills The Box Score In Win Over Orioles
Dylan Guenther4 hours ago

Ready To Go Thursday
Jorge Polanco4 hours ago

Reinstated From Paternity List
Anthony Duclair4 hours ago

Takes Leave Of Absence
Carlos Rodriguez4 hours ago

Joining Brewers On Thursday
Alex Pietrangelo4 hours ago

On Track To Return Thursday
Brady Tkachuk4 hours ago

Out On Thursday
DJ LeMahieu4 hours ago

"About A Week Away" From Taking Live At-Bats
Devin Williams4 hours ago

To Return From Paternity List On Friday
Jake Fraley4 hours ago

Gavin Lux, Jake Fraley Sitting Against A Lefty
Trey McBride4 hours ago

Cardinals Making Trey McBride The Highest-Paid Tight End In NFL History
Geno Smith5 hours ago

Raiders, Geno Smith Agree To Two-Year Extension
Jeferson Quero5 hours ago

Set Back With Hamstring Injury
Eguy Rosario6 hours ago

Clears Waivers, Outrighted To Triple-A
Xavier Isaac6 hours ago

Rays Hopeful Xavier Isaac Will Return In A Couple Of Weeks
Angel Genao6 hours ago

Won't Return Until June
Austin Wells6 hours ago

Being Rested On Thursday
Paul Goldschmidt6 hours ago

Sitting In Finale Against Arizona
Masataka Yoshida6 hours ago

Not Ready For Rehab Assignment
Edward Cabrera6 hours ago

Goes Three Innings In Rehab Start
6 hours ago

Tyler Shough Could Be Day 2 Pick In NFL Draft
Jake McCarthy6 hours ago

Gabriel Moreno, Jake McCarthy Sitting On Thursday
Dallas Cowboys6 hours ago

Shemar Stewart Meeting With Cowboys Staff
Ketel Marte7 hours ago

Sitting On Thursday After Signing Extension
New York Giants7 hours ago

Travis Hunter The Likely Pick For Giants?
Jake Meyers7 hours ago

Taking Seat For Third Straight Contest
Dallas Cowboys7 hours ago

DeMarvion Overshown Aiming For Comeback Player Of The Year Award
Luis Garcia7 hours ago

Shut Down With Elbow Inflammation
Washington Commanders8 hours ago

Commanders Sign T.J. Maguranyanga
Kansas City Chiefs8 hours ago

Mike Edwards Reunites With Chiefs
New Orleans Saints8 hours ago

Saints Could Take A Quarterback Early In The Draft
Joe Milton III11 hours ago

Traded To Cowboys
Anfernee Simons12 hours ago

Could Be Absent Again Thursday
Scoot Henderson12 hours ago

Misses Third Consecutive Game Thursday
Scottie Barnes12 hours ago

Iffy For Thursday
Immanuel Quickley12 hours ago

Takes Thursday Off
Jakob Poeltl12 hours ago

Sits Out Thursday's Game
Damian Lillard12 hours ago

May Return To Action Sooner Than Expected
Giannis Antetokounmpo12 hours ago

Likely To Suit Up Thursday
LeBron James13 hours ago

Probable Thursday
Jared McCann14 hours ago

Tallies Three Helpers On Wednesday
Jackson Blake14 hours ago

Scores Twice In Victory
Artemi Panarin14 hours ago

Tallies Three Points In Overtime Victory
Andrei Svechnikov14 hours ago

Exits Early On Wednesday
Jake McCabe14 hours ago

Suffers Injury On Wednesday
Jonathan Drouin15 hours ago

Exits Wednesday's Contest
Los Angeles Chargers22 hours ago

Chargers Sign Tight End Jordan Petaia
23 hours ago

Matthew Golden Making Pre-Draft Visit To Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals23 hours ago

Trey Hendrickson Not Looking For Short-Term Deal
Tutu Atwell24 hours ago

Rams Plan To Give Tutu Atwell A Bigger Role In 2025
Tampa Bay Buccaneers24 hours ago

Bucs Restructure Antoine Winfield's Deal To Free Up Cap Space
Jrue Holiday1 day ago

Won't Play Against Miami
New York Jets1 day ago

Xavier Newman-Johnson Re-Signs With New York
Al Horford1 day ago

Sidelined Versus Heat
Kristaps Porzingis1 day ago

Ruled Out On Wednesday
Fred VanVleet1 day ago

Out Versus Utah
Evgeni Malkin1 day ago

Joins Penguins For Road Trip
Filip Chytil1 day ago

Could Miss Rest Of Season
Declan Chisholm1 day ago

Back In Action Against Rangers
Samuel Girard1 day ago

Exits Avalanche Lineup Wednesday
Joel Kiviranta1 day ago

Returning Against Blackhawks
Eeli Tolvanen1 day ago

Misses First Game Of The Season
Jaden Schwartz1 day ago

Unavailable Against Canucks
1 day ago

Kyle McCord Rising Up Draft Boards?
1 day ago

Ashton Jeanty To Raiders Continues To Gain Steam
Cameron Young2 days ago

A Player To Avoid At Valero Texas Open
Kurt Kitayama2 days ago

In Search Of Consistency At Valero Texas Open
Si Woo Kim2 days ago

Looking To Bounce Back At Valero Texas Open
Tom Hoge2 days ago

Looking To Build Off Strong Performance At The PLAYERS Championship
Matt Fitzpatrick2 days ago

Looking For Consistency At Valero Texas Open
Corey Conners2 days ago

Continues Strong Form Ahead Of Valero Texas Open
Patrick Cantlay2 days ago

Eyeing Victory At Valero Texas Open
Gary Woodland2 days ago

Showing Great Form Ahead Of Valero Texas Open
Akshay Bhatia2 days ago

Aiming For Repeat At Valero Texas Open
Alejandro Tosti2 days ago

A Volatile Choice At TPC San Antonio
Jordan Spieth2 days ago

Needs To Find Consistency At TPC San Antonio
Jake Knapp2 days ago

Making First Appearance At Valero Texas Open
Michael Kim2 days ago

Looking To Find The Magic Again In San Antonio
Tommy Fleetwood2 days ago

Is Nearly A Must-Play At Valero Texas Open
Tony Finau2 days ago

Hoping For Better Approach Play In San Antonio
Eric Cole2 days ago

Trending In Right Direction Ahead Of Valero
Sam Stevens3 days ago

Enjoys Nice Result In Houston
PGA3 days ago

J.T. Poston Seeks To Contend At Valero Texas Open
Denny McCarthy3 days ago

Keeps Making Cuts But Needs To Make More Putts
Brian Harman3 days ago

Off To A Subpar 2025 So Far
Ryan Preece3 days ago

Has Three Straight Top-10 Finishes For First Time In His Career
NASCAR3 days ago

Bubba Wallace After Third-Place Finish At Martinsville: "What a Great Day"
Todd Gilliland3 days ago

Has Mistake-Free Day At Martinsville, Grabs Another Top-10 Finish
Brandon Moreno3 days ago

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Steve Erceg3 days ago

Losses Third Consecutive Fight
Drew Dober3 days ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Mexico City
Manuel Torres3 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Harry Hall3 days ago

Bounces Back In Houston Last Week
CJ Vergara3 days ago

Gets Submitted
Édgar Cháirez3 days ago

Edgar Chairez Gets Submission Win At UFC Mexico City
Vince Morales3 days ago

Drops Decision At UFC Mexico City
Raul Rosas Jr.3 days ago

Gets Decision Win At UFC Mexico City
Saimon Oliveira3 days ago

Still Winless In The UFC
David Martinez3 days ago

Wins His UFC Debut
Kevin Borjas3 days ago

Earns His First UFC Win
Ronaldo Rodríguez3 days ago

Ronaldo Rodriguez Suffers His First UFC Loss
Christopher Bell3 days ago

Powers His Way To A Second-Place Finish At Martinsville
Chase Elliott3 days ago

Strong Martinsville Performance Ends With A Top-Five Finish
Kyle Larson3 days ago

Collects A Top-Five Finish At Martinsville
William Byron3 days ago

Places 22nd After Struggles At Martinsville
Joey Logano3 days ago

Claims His First 2025 Top-10 Finish After Up-And-Down Performance
Tyler Reddick3 days ago

Fails To Place In The Top 10 At Martinsville
Denny Hamlin4 days ago

Silences Doubters After Crew-Chief Change
Ty Gibbs4 days ago

Earns Best 2025 Finish At Martinsville Despite Failing Cool Suit
Ross Chastain4 days ago

Has A Great Day At Martinsville
Chase Briscoe4 days ago

Has Solid Run At Martinsville
Erik Jones4 days ago

Disqualified At Martinsville For Weight Violation
Josh Berry4 days ago

Has Top-10 Upside At Martinsville
Joey Logano5 days ago

Don't Overlook Joey Logano This Weekend
Ryan Preece5 days ago

Could Get First Three-Race Top-10 Streak Of His Career
Chase Elliott5 days ago

Looking To Continue Great Runs At Martinsville
Christopher Bell5 days ago

Wins Pole At Martinsville, But Can He Stay Up There?
Ryan Blaney5 days ago

Fast In Practice But Skeptical About Car
Denny Hamlin5 days ago

New Crew Chief Has Terrible Martinsville Record

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
Russell Wilson - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL DFS Picks

Fantasy Football Outlooks For QBs On New Teams: Russell Wilson, Justin Fields, Sam Darnold, Geno Smith, more

The NFL quarterback carousel gets to spin every offseason, and plenty of QBs have already found new homes ahead of the 2025 NFL season. For fantasy football, a player's surrounding team is extremely important, so it's worth looking into each of their outlooks with their new squads. There are still a few unsigned QBs, but […]


Shedeur Sanders - College Football Rankings, NCAA CFB DFS Lineup Picks

2025 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Mock Draft: 12-Team, Superflex/Two-QB

The 2025 NFL Draft is still less than 30 days away. Therefore, dynasty fantasy rookie mock drafts are nearly here. Much will change between now and the NFL Draft. However, it’s time for another dynasty rookie mock draft. This rookie mock draft is a two-round, 12-team, and two-quarterbacks. For a deeper dive into dynasty strategy, […]


Deshaun Watson - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2025 NFL Offseason Team Needs: Bengals, Browns, Ravens, Steelers

The AFC North, comprised of the Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, and Pittsburgh Steelers, sent two teams to the playoffs in 2024 and had one on the cusp of a playoff berth. The Ravens have the best roster of the four teams by a long shot. The Steelers have a solid defensive group, and […]


UFL RANKINGS, FANTASY FOOTBALL,

UFL Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 2: QB, RB, WR, TE Rankings and Analysis (2025)

Week 2 of the UFL season is just around the corner. This week will feature one game on Friday, one game on Saturday, and two on Sunday. Birmingham and Michigan will play at 8:00 p.m. EDT on Friday, followed by Memphis-D.C. on Saturday at 8:00 p.m. EDT. Sunday's game pits the 1-0 Renegades against the […]


Calvin Ridley - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL DFS Picks, Draft Sleepers

Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings: Overvalued, Undervalued Players (2025)

Dynasty fantasy football rankings constantly shift, especially as we inch closer to the new season and fantasy drafts. Dynasty managers know the importance of finding those underrated players who could be steals in drafts or trades. They also know some players are overhyped due to unsustainable trends or past production. I'll break down two overvalued […]


Justin Fields - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Best Fantasy Football Moves During 2025 NFL Free Agency

It has been a wild offseason so far in the NFL. Plenty of players have switched teams in free agency, and some stars were even traded. Deebo Samuel Sr. was dealt to the Washington Commanders, Geno Smith was traded to the Las Vegas Raiders, and DK Metcalf has a new home with the Pittsburgh Steelers. These […]


Tyreek Hill - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Three Aging Fantasy Football Players To Sell In Dynasty Leagues

It's hard to always know when to sell off your aging fantasy football players. Often, it's also difficult to accept that it's better to move on from a player when he's coming off a productive season and still has a lot left in the tank. But I believe it's better to be a year early […]


J.J. McCarthy - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Draft Sleepers

Five Fantasy Football Superflex Quarterback Breakouts, Draft Targets (2025)

If you’ve ever played in a Superflex fantasy football league, then you know how important quarterbacks are in this format. The ability to start multiple stud quarterbacks can carry you to a Superflex title. Unfortunately, finding two such players isn’t so easy. All the top signal-callers come off draft boards first, and that makes it […]


Omarion Hampton - College Football Rankings, NCAA CFB DFS Lineup Picks - NFL Draft

Ideal Landing Spots For The Top 12 Fantasy Football Rookies - 2025 NFL Draft

Then, the NFL Draft continues to inch closer and closer. This is a very interesting class, with a handful of players who could be stars in the NFL and reshape fantasy football leagues going forward. Here are the ideal landing spots for the top 12 fantasy football rookies. These picks exist in conversation with each […]


Jalen Coker - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Eight Best Ball Late Round Value Fantasy Football Players To Target For 2025

Fantasy football is the most popular game in all of sports. It has gone from a paper-and-pen game to a multi-million dollar-a-year one. While redraft leagues are the most popular form of fantasy football, best ball leagues are quickly gaining steam. The best part of best ball leagues is the ability to draft thousands of […]


Abdul Carter - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2025 NFL Draft Rankings: Top 10 Fantasy Football Edge Rusher Prospects

Edge rusher is the most important, most coveted, and most highly-paid position on defense in the NFL. It stands to reason that the most important position in the entire game being quarterback, and by a wide margin, means the most important position on defense are the players that are tasked with disrupting opposing QBs as […]


Brock Purdy - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Picks

Brock Purdy Dynasty Fantasy Football Outlook and Trade Value

Despite becoming the all-time leading passer for the Iowa State Cyclones, Brock Purdy wasn't a highly touted prospect due to his perceived lack of athleticism. The 49ers picked him with the final pick of the 2022 NFL Draft, but Mr. Irrelevant quickly proved everyone wrong. In his first two years, he started in back-to-back NFC […]


Michael Florio's Football Show - Podcast RotoBaller Network

Florio's Football Show: Scouting NFL Draft Prospects!

Michael F Florio goes over some of the top prospects from this years NFL Draft. Florio talks about what he looks for when watching prospect tape and explains what traits translate best to the NFL level. Be sure to also tune into RotoBaller Radio on SiriusXM (SiriusXM channel 87) on Sundays from 6-7 am. You can […]