RADIO
Connelly Doan examines fantasy baseball pitcher risers and fallers, and whose new pitches could make them adds, drops, or trade targets for Week 3.
Welcome to the first edition of RotoBaller’s Statcast Pitcher Studs and Duds article series for the 2023 season! Statcast provides a ton of insightful advanced metrics that can be used to better understand pitchers' performance and predict future fantasy performance. Diving into underlying stats is one of my favorite aspects of fantasy baseball and I am happy to be back doing that with you all.
Each week, I will select one of these stats and choose a few pitchers with strong metrics and poor metrics to analyze and ultimately determine how they may perform in the future. As we only have a few games of data, I am going to start by analyzing the effectiveness of some new/updated pitches that have been revealed to start the season.
The addition of a new pitch to a pitcher's repertoire is sometimes all they need to create significant performance changes. Understanding what the pitcher changed and whether or not it could impact their results can help fantasy managers make shrewd roster decisions early. I will take a close look at many different metrics and aspects of pitch types over the course of the season. For now, we'll start by previewing a few pitchers showcasing new pitches this season. Once again, welcome back to the 2023 season and the Statcast Pitcher Studs and Duds series!
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New Pitch Studs for Fantasy Baseball
All stats are current as of Sunday morning, April 9, 2023.
Joe Ryan, Minnesota Twins - "Sweeper", Split-Finger Fastball
2-0, 3.75 ERA, 25.5% Sweeper Usage, 18.6% Splitter Usage
Joe Ryan had a solid first full season in 2022, going 13-8 with a 3.55 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and 25% strikeout rate. He managed this success despite throwing his fastball 60.1% of the time. His slider and changeup were not effective pitches, yielding a .540 and .492 slugging percentage, respectively.
This offseason, Ryan wanted to better his secondary pitches. He said, "Having sliders just register as 84 mph four-seam fastballs and go to the fence is not super fun.” As such, Ryan swapped his slider and changeup for two pitches with more movement, a sweeping slider (known as a sweeper) and a splitter.
Joe Ryan, Filth. 😷 pic.twitter.com/sS5X9fBmuj
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 2, 2023
The results have been excellent in the early going. Ryan has still thrown his fastball frequently at 55.9%, but he has 15 strikeouts through his first two starts. 11 of those have come from his fastball, though he has yet to allow a hit on either his sweeper or his splitter. His fastball has always played well and it looks like he now has an effective off-speed pitch for both righties (sweeper) and lefties (splitter).
Ryan's new pitches have worked very well independently and in tandem with his fastball to start the season. Both pitches appear to be exciting developments from a fantasy perspective. While he likely won't maintain his 34.8% strikeout rate, he will provide a lot of fantasy value if his strikeout jump persists.
A special shoutout to Ryan's new teammate, Pablo Lopez, who has also showcased a filthy sweeper early this season.
Logan Gilbert, Seattle Mariners: "Split-Change"
0-1, 3.60 ERA, 9.6% Split-Change Usage
Logan Gilbert entered the league in 2021 as a fantasy prospect and established himself as a viable fantasy option in 2022 after posting a 3.20 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 22.7% strikeout rate in 32 starts. While the 25-year-old had an effective season, he wanted to develop a more effective off-speed pitch against left-handed hitters for 2023.
As a result, Gilbert has swapped his changeup for a "split-change," or what Statcast is classifying as a split-finger fastball. The main reason for ditching the changeup was a lack of confidence in it. Gilbert only threw his changeup 8% of the time in 2022 and has only thrown the splitter a bit more so far at 9.6%. Nonetheless, the results have been excellent.
Logan Gilbert, Wicked Splitters. 🤢 pic.twitter.com/BhXxG9ZrX8
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 7, 2023
Logan Gilbert, Filthy 86mph Changeup. 👌 pic.twitter.com/caRocQF8qc
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 21, 2022
Gilbert's new splitter has a similar movement profile to his changeup. While his changeup was effective, his splitter has been outstanding. On 16 pitches (14 to lefties), Gilbert has yet to allow a hit with a 31.3% swinging strike rate. This is compared to a .125 batting average and 10.4% swinging strike rate on his changeup last season.
The splitter has been his superior off-speed offering for lefties this season by far, as Gilbert has allowed a .500 BA to lefties with both his curveball and slider through his first two starts. Those marks will surely decrease over a few more starts, but it is encouraging to see the splitter working so well per Gilbert's intended use.
On the surface, Gilbert's splitter is not that much different than his changeup in terms of movement and usage. However, the mental aspect of the game cannot be underestimated. The huge early jump in swinging strike rate may instill confidence in Gilbert to throw the pitch more. I think that Gilbert can take a significant stride forward in the strikeout department if he leans into his new pitch.
Kodai Senga, New York Mets: "Ghost Fork"
2-0, 1.59 ERA, 23.6% Forkball Usage
One of fantasy's more intriguing players coming into this season, Kodai Senga was well known in Nippon Professional Baseball for his deadly "ghost fork." It is always unknown how players will adapt to the MLB. Senga has looked great so far, winning both starts with a 1.59 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and a 31.1% strikeout rate. 12 of his 14 strikeouts have come with the forkball; will it continue to translate?
Senga has already generated plenty of social media attention with his pitch. Statcast does not yet have movement info on the pitch, but it has clearly baffled big-league hitters so far. He has generated an impressive 28.6% strikeout rate with the pitch.
.@KodaiSenga made a bat disappear with his ghost fork. pic.twitter.com/FcLze2cvsG
— MLB (@MLB) April 2, 2023
Kodai Senga, 97mph Fastball and 84mph Ghost Fork, Overlay.
Good look at the drop on it. pic.twitter.com/gLvM5pMuXU
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 8, 2023
While his sweeper and cutter have yielded good results so far, their expected stats have not been as good. As dominant as the ghost fork has looked, it will be interesting to see if Senga can produce solid results long-term with only two effective pitches. Either way, the forkball has been every bit as good as advertised.
New Pitch Duds for Fantasy Baseball
All stats are current as of Sunday morning, April 9, 2023.
Kyle Gibson, Baltimore Orioles: Sweeper
2-0, 4.50 ERA, 19.8% Sweeper Usage
Veteran Kyle Gibson has been a useful fantasy streamer at times throughout his career but has never really been a staple. The 35-year-old now has a pitcher-friendly home park in Oriole Park at Camden Yards and has swapped his slider for a sweeper with the intent of generating more swings and misses. Gibson has had a decent two starts this season, winning both with a 4.50 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and 17.4% strikeout rate.
Gibson has done a great job mixing his pitches and has thrown his sweeper 19.8% of the time. He has gotten good results with the sweeper so far, with a .200 batting average against and a 21.9% swinging strike rate on 33 pitches. He has thrown all of these to right-handed hitters on the outside part of the plate.
The results have been good, but a look under the hood isn't as encouraging. Gibson has left the pitch in the middle of the zone, leading to a .500 slugging percentage against with a 28-degree launch angle and a 90.8 mph exit velocity. His slider was just as good with better-expected results in 2022 to the tune of a 19% swinging strike rate, .211 BA against, .336 SLG, 13-degree LA, and 85.4 mph EV.
A larger sample size will offer more evidence of the effectiveness of his pitch change. So far, Gibson's sweeper doesn't seem to be as useful a pitch as his slider was. He has gotten swings and misses, but the results may worsen if he cannot focus the pitch in the bottom of the zone. I do think Gibson will be a fantasy option in deep points leagues given his new home park, but I don't think his new sweeper will change his overall profile.
Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies: Sweeper
0-1, 5.59 ERA, 10.2% Usage
Zack Wheeler has been a high-end fantasy option for most of his career and saw a jump in strikeout rate in 2021. This partly has to do with the fact that Wheeler tries to bring something new to his arsenal each season. This season, Wheeler has incorporated a sweeper, bringing his pitch mix to six.
He rebounded nicely in his second start after a rough opener. While fantasy managers should not be worried about Wheeler's early ERA, what should they expect from his sweeper?
Wheeler's sweeper is released with spin in between his slider and curveball and finishes with a similar movement to his curve with slightly more velocity (click here to learn more about pitch spin charts). He has only thrown the pitch 19 times so far and the results have not been pretty.
He has yet to record a swing-and-miss with the pitch while allowing a .600 BA and .800 SLG. This may not entirely speak to the pitch movement itself, as Wheeler has either left the pitch directly in the middle of the plate or well out of the zone. The pitch was touted as a good one this offseason, so it should yield better results over time. So far, it has not been impressive.
Wheeler has been an above-average strikeout pitcher while relying mainly on a four-seamer, slider, curveball, and sinker each of the last two seasons. It doesn't seem like he necessarily needed another pitch. I do think his sweeper will be better than its early showing and it hasn't significantly impacted his strikeout rate, which sits at 27.3%. However, it remains to be seen if it will be as useful a secondary pitch as his slider or curveball.
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