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Casey Wilson gives some tips on how to be a successful and profitable MLB DFS player this baseball season. Follow his advice and read his daily picks at RotoBaller!
Hello, RotoBallers, and thanks for taking the time to read this MLB DFS strategy piece! If you're here, it's likely because you want to be a better DFS player and learn more about how to be a sustainable DFS player who doesn't have to deposit more money in their account every week.
Opening day is upon us, and what better time to break down essential strategies on how to play MLB DFS? Much important information is below, but it may not be for everyone. Here at RotoBaller, we will do the work for you!
Today, we will discuss all the ins and outs of MLB DFS strategy. I will go through my research process and point out some very important notes from my research and how to translate them into lineup building. Whether this is your first time playing MLB DFS or you are a wily veteran, I hope this article gives you some new techniques to help you be a profitable player this season.
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Vegas Team Totals
The first thing I do every morning is start my research by listing the teams in order of their team total. I post it in a chart, which helps me identify which teams, according to Vegas, are in the best spots. This is an excellent way to identify chalk early in the morning.
Usually, teams with the highest implied totals will have more ownership attached to them. Vegas is as sharp as it gets, so trusting these lines is essential in building and is the best starting point for research.
Pricing Matters
Once I have all of these listed out, I will go into each app (DraftKings and FanDuel) and post the pitchers in order of price in a chart. Pricing is the name of the game when it comes to DFS, and understanding early in the day, who is mispriced, can help us condense our player pool.
When it comes to hitting, you will notice price is less important to me, although you must stay within the salary. The most important thing to me with my hitters is stacks. Yes, pricing matters with this, but I must get the bats I want with the value I want (we will get into this more in detail later).
Once I have all this listed out, the fun begins. Remember, on DraftKings, you will use two pitchers in your lineups, but on FanDuel, it’s only one. Building on FanDuel is much easier regarding pricing because of the one-pitcher format. I enjoy playing on FanDuel much more, but DraftKings seems to have more of an edge for those with lineup-building experience.
Data Process
The essential tool for me daily is Fangraphs, a free tool that lists the daily matchups between hitters and pitchers, projected lineups, and primary and advanced data per hitter and pitcher.
I first will separate the pitcher player pool and sort out the most important categories for me when distinguishing points in DFS. I will look into these numbers from two points of view. First is a big sample size, normally a seasonal data length. The second way will be by the last 30 days or several starts; this helps me find important pitcher trends. Below are the important data points for pitchers in DFS to focus on.
- K%, Whiff%: Strikeouts are king in DFS. On both sites, we try to maximize our points from strikeouts. We don't always need an eight-inning outing to land on an optimal pitcher, but if we can target strikeouts, we have a high floor and ceiling, which is essential in cash games and tournaments.
- ERA, xFIP, SIERA: ERA, xFIP, and SIERA are all good data points to see how pitchers are doing with run prevention. We can see which pitchers are overperforming or underperforming in their run prevention by comparing ERA with xFIP and SIERA. This is an excellent way to target regression in pitchers.
- GB%: Pitchers that keep the ball on the ground can limit the damage with HRs and get out of innings with Double Plays. Ground balls limit big innings and take multiple hits to beat us. Targeting pitchers who get a ton of ground balls and strikeouts is the perfect combination.
- HR|9: Home runs are king for hitters and are a tremendous way for us to avoid blow-ups for pitchers. The pitchers who give up home runs and do not strike hitters out are the top targets for our stacks.
- WHIP: Keeping guys off base is essential.
The hitters that I play are solely based on the pitchers throwing against them. I rarely attack a “good” pitcher, even with one-offs. When I examine an implied Vegas run total with the data points listed above, I start to find teams that stand out. I will then find specific hitters on those teams that stand out against the starting pitcher. We will get into handedness in the next section, but here are the data points that are important to me for hitters.
- OPS: This stat is very important for scoring points in DFS. On-base percentage plus slugging allows us to focus on the hitters who get on base often and hit for power, which is key in DFS.
- FB%: We want hitters that hit the ball in the air. Balls hit in the air have more opportunities to become extra-base hits and score more points.
- wOBA: Getting on base is essential. Getting on base scores us points and allows us for other intangibles like scoring runs and stealing bases.
- K%: Although we do not get negative points for strikeouts, we can't score any points if the ball is not in play.
- Hard Contact %/ Barrel %: Note the FB% section. Balls hit harder and have a better chance of scoring more points.
- ISO/SLG: is a good indicator of hitters who can hit home runs for us. Finding hitters who can score us points via the long ball is a considerable advantage in DFS.
- SB: Becoming a more significant part of the game now than ever. Stolen bases create a ton of upside for our stacks and can put your hitters over the top.
Platoon Splits
Handedness data is very important to me on a day-to-day basis. wOBA, SLG, and K% are the most essential stats in MLB DFS. I will go into each matchup and see if a pitcher has a higher OPS vs. a specific handedness or is susceptive to both sides of the plate. I’ll then look and see if that particular handedness in that lineup has a high OPS against what handedness the pitcher is. If both match up, this is where we can find stacks we want to play and what specific hitters in our stacks we want to play.
We can also do the same thing with pitcher K%. If our arms face a lineup that strikes out at a high rate against that pitcher's handedness, we can attack that spot. We can also see if a pitcher strikes out lefties or righties at a higher clip and how many of those hitters are in the lineup on that day. If we have a pitcher who strikes out right-handed hitters at a high clip and a team with a ton of righties, we can exploit that.
Weather Is Important
Weather impacts MLB DFS in many different ways, good and bad. Let’s start with the impact of weather in games that don’t have a chance of delay or postponement.
Heat and humidity are tremendous when it comes to conditions for baseball. This will start as soon as opening day, and we will have some games in the north and some out west and south. For example, if we have one game in which it’s 95 degrees and humid. The other is 50 degrees. We will find that the ball will travel more in the higher temps and higher humidity.
The other thing to think about is that it’s just easier in general to hit in warmer weather compared to colder weather. Targeting bats in warmer weather and arms in colder weather are important factors we will use.
The other factor is wind. Now, some stadiums are built to limit wind (most newer stadiums), but some, like Wrigley, have games in which the wind changes the entirety of the slate. I don’t think I need to explain this, but if the wind is blowing out in stadiums that don’t limit it, avoid pitchers and target hitters and vice versa. This will and can create massive chalk, especially with bad pitchers.
This also creates a situation where we can get really good plays at low ownership or fade bad plays at high ownership based on the weather. If you have risk tolerance, this is a big way to find an edge in MLB DFS.
Delays are an essential part of the game. Most times, if a game goes into a delay longer than 30-45 minutes the starting pitcher usually will not return. If I ever see a game with a chance of delay, I will avoid that pitcher. Taking minimal points because of the weather for your pitcher is the easiest way to ruin a bankroll.
Lastly, Vegas has all of this baked into its implied team run totals. I would ensure you are not factoring in weather twice, as it is already represented in Vegas run totals.
Park Factor
Ballparks are also a very important part of DFS and can create a major edge. I put a ton of weight into Ballparks in MLB DFS, and there are some parks that I refuse to play hitters in, no matter the situation. Will this burn me some days? Of course, but more often than not, this will help me on a day-to-day basis.
There are parks I will often target hitters in and parks I will often target pitchers in. Baseball Savant is a great tool that will help guide you through ballparks that stand out more than others on a day-to-day basis. There are even options that can sort out which specific handedness has better advantages in certain parks.
Rostership Matters
Ownership in MLB DFS is tricky and plays a vital role in my building process. Let's start with pitcher ownership, which matters a bit less to me than hitter ownership, as we discussed earlier about the hitter variance. There is a much harder path for a chalk pitcher to fail, so when it comes to pitching, I usually play the best plays and tend not to worry about ownership. If I like a pitcher, I’ll play him.
When it comes to bats, I try to get away from chalk as often as I can, but it isn’t always easy. Sometimes, stacks will gain a ton of ownership, and rightfully so; they are usually facing an awful arm. I tend to do three things with these teams to get a bit different.
First, I'll fade them completely, which I'm never comfortable doing unless there's a reason to. Something I see in the opposing pitcher trending upward, weather, or maybe even a lousy hitter ballpark. If I can't find a reason to fade, I’ll play them with a low-owned secondary stack that I know isn't getting much ownership. In this case, I can play whatever bats from the chalk stack I want and not worry.
The other thing I will do is play lower-owned bats in the stack. I will play an eighth or ninth hitter in the stack at low ownership paired with the top of the lineup. Remember, although that lower-owned hitter may not be Mike Trout, he’s a big-league hitter and has the same matchup as Mike Trout.
Stack, Stack, Stack!
This is probably the most crucial section of this article you will read along with the next one. I put these two sections back to back because they are so similar. I decided to split them up because one stack only makes up half your lineup, and each is so important. Let me start by saying this: I will never make an MLB lineup without stacking.
Before I move, note that I am a tournament and single-entry player. I do not play cash games. This is a different strategy, although I would still recommend stacking in cash, but not to the extent we will discuss below.
Can you land on eight bats in eight different games that do well? Sure. Can you sustain profit over a season doing this? No.
On DraftKings, you can play a max of five players in a stack; on Fanduel, it can be a max of four players in a stack. I will always play the total number of guys I can in my main stack. If a team goes for eight to ten runs and you stack that team in different ways, you have a great shot at making some money.
Correlation in stacks is something you’ll hear from other touts in the industry, meaning they are trying to stack the 2,3,4,6 hitters in a lineup, hoping one or two get on and the other drives them in, meaning you get points for all of them. I will stack like this, but correlation means less to me than it does to others. If we have a stack that scores eight runs, there’s a good chance damage was done up and down the lineup in multiple innings. I'm fine stacking 1,3,6,7 or things like this because I do not think it hurts the upside as much as others.
Lineups are essential as the day goes on. Just like basketball players, guys will randomly get days off, so it’s important to pay attention to the news. It’s also essential, as sometimes you will see lineup changes and guys who hit toward the top of the order have a better chance of getting more at-bats.
Lineup Construction
As stated above, lineup construction is significant. I will always stack two teams together when I build. On Fanduel, I will play 4-4 or 4-3 stacks 95% of the time, meaning four players from my main stack and three to four players from my secondary stack. On DraftKings, I will build 5-3 or 5-2 lineups 95% of the time and mix in 4-3 lineups.
If I love a stack, I’ll build my bats first, get my pitching in second, and see where I land. If I love my arms, I’ll start there and play value bats from stacks if necessary. This process is all slate-dependent. Building lineups like this will make you successful, whether you are just beginning to play MLB DFS or have been playing it for a long time. By using our tools daily, our goal is to get you landing on the best plays in stacks using proper lineup construction as often as possible.
Early Season Tips/Trends
Here are a couple of early season trends and rules that are very important and that we have to keep an eye on. They should give you an edge.
First, I tend to pay down at pitching early in the year. Arms usually aren’t stretched out to the 90-100 pitch mark, and when we see a pitcher at a high price, we need him to give us the full allotment of pitches to reach total value. Pitch Counts are basically like minute limits in basketball, so we need to focus on this and see where guys are in their last spring training starts, and also from listening to quotes from Coaches or beat reporters.
The next important thing to focus on early is the weather. I’m writing this article in Cleveland, Ohio, which is currently 37 degrees outside. As I mentioned earlier, this is awful-hitting weather. So we can take advantage of focusing on our bats in warmer weather situations.
Lastly, these guys had a whole off-season to adjust so remember some arms will return with velocity jumps and hitters with different swings or approaches. Getting on top of these early is essential for our success.
Premium Subscription
I know this sure seems like a lot; it is. This is my process, and it is one that I have used for years in MLB DFS, which has helped me secure multiple four-digit wins.
I do this every day I play MLB DFS, and I will have a premium article for our members here at RotoBaller laying this all out. In that article, I will select my favorite plays and give you some cores in my building process. Do not worry. You can sit back, relax, and let us do the work.
We also have a premium discord that I will be in and out of every single day. Even on days I don't write the premium article, I will be helping our subs with lineup decisions and providing my favorite plays. If this all sounds good to you, give us a try and jump in for some winners. You can use code CASEY for a 10% discount on any premium membership.
Cheers to the 2024 MLB season!
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