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There are a few interesting pitching matchups: Toronto’s Steven Matz taking on Tampa Bay’s Tyler Glasnow and Cincinnati’s Sonny Gray visiting St. Louis Kwang-Hyun Kim but the best pitching battle goes in the last game of the night: San Diego’s Yu Darvish at the Dodgers’ Clayton Kershaw.
Here are some options to keep in mind when playing Thursday’s MLB action on Monkey Knife Fight.
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STAR SHOOTOUT - MAIN GAMES
MORE OR LESS
Jacob deGrom LESS THAN 10.5 STRIKEOUTS
This seems like a ridiculously high number, expecting a pitcher to strike out 11 in a game, but deGrom is coming off back-to-back 14-strikeout performances. He is facing a Washington Nationals lineup that tends to make contact, with a 22.8% strikeout rate on the road ranking as eighth lowest in baseball this season.
Tyler Glasnow LESS THAN 8.5 STRIKEOUTS
The Rays ace has 36 strikeouts in 24 1/3 innings, an average of nine per start, but faces a Toronto Blue Jays lineup that has a road strikeout rate of 23.5%, which is lower than average.
Matt Olson MORE THAN 3.5 MKF FANTASY POINTS
After a bit of a slow start, the A’s first baseman is sizzling hot right now. In his past 10 games, Olson has mashed six home runs, scored 10 runs, and drove in 13, hitting .389 with a 1.383 OPS. He also gets the benefit of facing the Baltimore Orioles with starting pitcher Jorge Lopez on the mound and his 8.56 ERA through three starts is not likely to give Olson problems.
Bryce Harper LESS THAN 4.5 MKF FANTASY POINTS
Harper is off to a great start this season and it’s still only good for about 3.4 MKF fantasy points per game. Even with Friday’s game at Coors Field in Colorado, Harper is averaging just over 4.0 MKF fantasy points in 24 career games at Coors and the Rockies do have staff ace German Marquez on the mound so even if Harper may have a productive game, banking on at least five MKF fantasy points is a big ask.
Zach Greinke MORE THAN 17.5 PITCHING OUTS
Houston’s veteran right-hander has gone at least six innings (18 outs) in three of his four starts this season. Greinke has a home start against the Angels, an above average lineup, though one whose best player got plunked on the elbow in Thursday’s game.
STAR SHOOTOUT - LATE GAMES
MORE OR LESS
Sonny Gray LESS THAN 6.5 STRIKEOUTS
In his first start of the season, the Reds right-hander struck out six in just 4 1/3 innings, while throwing just 71 pitches. He is matched up against a St. Louis Cardinals lineup that does tend to make contact. The Cardinals’ home strikeout rate of 21.1% is the lowest rate in the National League.
Dylan Cease MORE THAN 5.5 STRIKEOUTS
The third-year White Sox starter is coming off back-to-back six-strikeout games but has yet to make it through five innings in any of his first three starts this season. Cease is going to battle against a Texas Rangers lineup that has a higher-than-average road strikeout rate of 27.8% this season. Cautiously, count on Cease to miss bats and keep fingers crossed that he stays in the game long enough to get to six strikeouts.
Byron Buxton MORE THAN 1.5 TOTAL BASES
Minnesota’s center fielder has been a beast early this season, with a ridiculous .977 slugging percentage, and while it is in a small sample, he is even better at home. Pittsburgh Pirates starter JT Brubaker has shown some potential but this is a reasonable mark for Buxton to hit.
Dane Dunning LESS THAN 4.5 STRIKEOUTS
The main piece that the Rangers received from the White Sox in the Lance Lynn trade, Dunning has been quite effective in three starts for the Rangers though he has not thrown more than 75 pitches in any of those three starts. He faces his former White Sox team, a club that has a very low strikeout rate (20.5%) at home.
JT Brubaker LESS THAN 4.5 STRIKEOUTS
Pittsburgh’s second-year starter has 18 strikeouts in 15 1/3 innings through his first three starts and he is matched up against a Minnesota Twins team that tends to make solid contact. At home, the Twins have a strikeout rate of just 18.8% the second lowest rate in baseball, so as promising as Brubaker has been this could be a tough matchup for him.
German Marquez MORE THAN 4.5 STRIKEOUTS
Colorado’s ace ha 20 strikeouts in 22 2/3 innings and is facing a Philadelphia Phillies lineup that is striking out 30.6% of the time on the road this season, the highest rate in the National League.
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