RADIO
Happy Monday! Tonight’s slate is an eight-gamer that looks to be a lot of fun, if not a little weird. We won’t have to deal with a Coors game, nor do we have Chalk Monster teams like the Yankees, Phillies, Orioles, or Dodgers forcing us into a binary decision (fade or overweight the chalk). With so many high-powered offenses off this slate, it allows us to dig a bit deeper to find some diamonds in the rough that we may otherwise overlook on larger slates.
One of the more interesting matchups will occur in the desert, with the Nationals heading to Arizona to face the Diamondbacks. Both offenses hit lefties well, and that’s exactly who each team will send to the hill. This game takes place 90 minutes later than any other matchup, setting us up with the opportunity for a pair of late-night hammer stacks.
This article will provide my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 7/29/2024 and the slate locking at 7:10 p.m. EDT on DraftKings and FanDuel. The lineup picks will range from some elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports here. Monitoring injury news and today's MLB starting lineups is also essential.
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DraftKings, FanDuel Pitchers - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Paul Skenes (PIT/RHP) at Houston Astros ($10.5K DK, $11.5K FD)
Nick Pivetta may have scored higher on my pitching model than Paul Skenes, but it’s hard to pass up what Skenes has been doing in his rookie season. It’s not hyperbole to say that Skenes is the best rookie pitcher we’ve seen since Dwight Gooden in the mid-1980s; he’s been that good. In his 12 starts since his call-up, he’s never allowed more than three earned runs and has one more game of zero earned runs allowed (three) than three earned runs allowed (two).
The two things we look for in a pitcher are innings and strikeouts. Skenes has struck out seven or more batters in all but one of his starts, and he’s shockingly pitched fewer than six innings only twice in his career. The floor on Skenes is about 20 DraftKings points (a number he’s eclipsed in all but two of his starts), and the sky is the limit.
The Houston Astros are not nearly as bad of a matchup as they have been in the past, with below-average power and contact numbers against right-handed pitching this year. People may pass on Skenes given the name value that the Astros bring, but with what we’ve seen from him over his first 12 starts, it’d be foolish to think he’d struggle today. He’s a play in both cash and tournament lineups.
Randy Johnson gushing about Paul Skenes...and also his advice to Skenes. pic.twitter.com/ZabgfytcIf
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 28, 2024
Grant Holmes (ATL/RHP) at Milwaukee Brewers ($4K DK, $5.5K FD)
I will mention Nick Pivetta again because in a vacuum he’s probably the second-best pitcher on the slate. But we don’t play in a vacuum, and price matters when it comes to formulating our lineups. Pivetta is expensive, while Grant Holmes is dirt cheap. He comes in at the lowest price point on both DraftKings and FanDuel, making him an intriguing option if you want to go wild with your lineup.
Holmes isn’t getting the nod simply for price; he’s one of the highest-rated pitchers in my model despite his lack of innings. He may not get enough innings to earn a win, but at his price, he needs three strong innings to pay off. He’s done that three times in his last six appearances. The key to a good game from Holmes is getting at least one strikeout for each inning he pitches. His 24% strikeout rate suggests he can get there, as he has in all three strong outings he’s had over his last six appearances.
The Brewers are an average offense, lacking power against right-handed pitching. Holmes is yet to give up a home run this season, putting everything in place for him to reach expectations in this matchup. He’s an option as your second pitcher in cash games on DraftKings and is a tournament option on both sites.
Also Consider: Nick Pivetta, Carson Spiers, Nathan Eovaldi, Jameson Taillon
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DraftKings, FanDuel Infielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Bobby Witt Jr. - SS, KC at Chris Flexen ($6.4K DK, $4.3K FD)
Bobby Witt Jr. may be among the most expensive players on the slate, but that doesn’t mean we should be avoiding him because of it. There’s more than enough value on this slate to get one of the best bats in the league on your roster. He’s a monster against right-handed pitching, posting a .249 ISO, a .590 slugging percentage, and a .341 batting average. All of those numbers lead the Royals this season.
He’s had success against Chris Flexen in his career, getting five hits in eight at-bats, including one home run and no strikeouts. He’s going to put the ball in play, leading to more opportunities for hits, runs, and runs batted in. He’s a fixture in any Royals tournament stack, but he also should be in consideration for your cash game lineups.
Juan Yepez - 1B, WSH at Jordan Montgomery ($3.4K DK, $3.3K FD)
Juan Yepez was a big prospect for the Cardinals a few years ago, and although he had some success with them, he mostly flamed out. Now, he’s back in the majors as a member of the Nationals and he’s tearing the cover off the ball. Over his last 12 games, he’s put up double-digit fantasy points seven times on DraftKings. In his last 10 overall games, he’s got a .368 batting average with 12 runs batted in.
In limited work against left-handed pitching, he’s accumulated a .412 batting average and a .588 slugging percentage. Jordan Montgomery, the starting pitcher for Arizona tonight, is allowing the second-highest slugging percentage to right-handed batters of anyone on the slate (.531 slugging percentage). Yepez is in play as a cash game value, but more importantly, he should be part of a sneaky Nationals stack for one of your late-night hammers.
Juan Yepez hits a dollar and change in STL. Can't hit righties.
Now hitting .400 and WSH cleanup man. 3 for 3 off Sonny Gray.
The Cardinals need a serious look at their player development models.
— Justin Van Zuiden (@stlcardinals84) July 27, 2024
Joey Bart - C, PIT at Jake Bloss ($3K DK, $2.6K FD)
Jake Bloss has allowed the highest slugging percentage to righties of any pitcher on the slate (.636 slugging percentage allowed). That makes the Pirates a contrarian option today, as they have a few batters who can hit right-handed pitching well. Shockingly, Joey Bart is one of the better right-handed bats on the team against righty pitching. He’s got a .259 ISO and has hit all six of his home runs this year against righties. He’s on one of his better runs of the season right now with a hit in three straight games and a .286 batting average and .858 OPS over his last 10 games.
DraftKings, FanDuel Outfielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Manuel Margot, OF - MIN at Jose Quintana ($3.5K DK, $2.4K FD)
Manuel Margot is probably not going to win you a tournament all on his own, but he is a cheap option that could end up in a prime batting spot for a Twins team that we want to stack against Jose Quintana. If we were ever to use Margot, tonight is the night as everything falls in his favor.
He’s got a .345 batting average with three multi-hit games over his last 10 games, so he’s playing some of his better baseball of the season. He’s also hit Quintana well over his career, posting a .615 slugging percentage while racking up six hits in 13 at-bats. Margot also loves hitting lefties, as he’s hit all three of his home runs this year against southpaw pitchers. He could be a cash play on FanDuel if he’s hitting at the top of the Twins lineup, which would also mean he should be in strong consideration for tournaments.
Victor Robles, OF - SEA at Nick Pivetta ($3.1K DK, $2.7K FD)
Where in the world did Victor Robles come from? He’s crushing the ball at the moment, putting up a monster 10-game run that’s seen him post a .378 batting average, a .514 slugging percentage, and six stolen bases. His last three games have seen him put up double-digit DraftKings points in each of those games.
He’s matched up against Nick Pivetta, who my pitching model likes, but who also allows a .514 slugging percentage to right-handed batters. Robles can be used in cash because of his stolen-base upside, and if he’s leading off for Seattle, he should be a part of any Mariners stack.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr., OF - ARI vs. Mitchell Parker ($4.2K DK, $3.3K FD)
The Arizona Diamondbacks are the second half of our late-night hammer teams along with the Nationals. The D-backs are facing a lefty, Mitchell Parker, and they hit left-handed pitching very well. Ketel Marte has had the most success against lefties, but Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is the second-best bat against lefties on the defending NL champions. He’s posted a .331 batting average and .508 slugging percentage against lefties and comes into this game having recorded a hit in each of his last six games (a .381 batting average). He’s not a guy I’m looking to use in cash games at his price, but he’s the second name I’d click after Marte when stacking Arizona tonight.
DraftKings, FanDuel MLB DFS Stack
1. Washington Nationals at Jordan Montgomery (ARI/LHP)
Favorite Plays: Juan Yepez, Alex Call, Lane Thomas, CJ Abrams, James Wood
2. Minnesota Twins at Jose Quintana (NYM/LHP)
Favorite Plays: Byron Buxton, Royce Lewis, Willi Castro, Carlos Santana, Ryan Jeffers
