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Happy Sunday, RotoBallers! I'm excited to be covering another loaded MLB DFS slate. We're well underway with the second half of the season, and I am locking in to help somebody take down a tournament. Let's break down my favorite plays from today's slate!
We have some excellent matchups today. The pitching mix is relatively thin today, featuring few aces alongside uncertain midrange and punt plays, undoubtedly leading to interesting lineup decisions. I'll point out the standout plays, but there will be plenty of opportunity to get creative on today's eleven-game main slate.
This article will provide my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 7/28/2024 and the slate locking at 1:35 p.m. EDT. The lineup picks will range from some elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports here. Monitoring injury news and today's MLB starting lineups is also essential.
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DraftKings, FanDuel Pitchers - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Garrett Crochet vs. Seattle Mariners ($10.3K DK, $10.1K FD)
With recent workload concerns complicating his outlook, Garrett Crochet carries some risk. That said, it was reported that Crochet is expected to resume a full starter's workload going forward, and I am choosing to press forward with that understanding.
Crochet is absolutely the highest-ceiling play on this slate. Through 21 starts, he sports an incredible 2.45 xERA and a 2.36 xFIP. That success includes truly dominant numbers, like a .196 xBA, .249 xwOBA, .313 xSLG, and a 6.2% barrel rate. In addition to completely shutting down opposing hitters, Crochet has flashed an elite ability to miss bats, posting a 35.4% strikeout rate with a 32.7% whiff rate and a 32.8% chase rate. This slate is light on high-end pitching and, assuming Crochet will resume his normal workload, he is the top option available.
The Seattle Mariners have been a preferred offense to attack in DFS all season long. They are scoring just 3.8 runs per game for the year. Those struggles include a weak 93 wRC+ against left-handed pitching alongside a .293 wOBA and a generous 25.9% strikeout rate. The recent addition of Randy Arozarena adds a boost to their offense, but with Julio Rodriguez and J.P. Crawford relegated to the injured list, this lineup is far from scary.
Bailey Ober vs. Detroit Tigers ($8.5K DK, $9.7K FD)
At a more approachable price tag, Bailey Ober is my favorite alternative to or pairing with Garrett Crochet. He has been incredibly consistent of late, submitting six consecutive quality starts heading into today. Across 19 total starts this season, Ober boasts a strong 3.60 xERA and a 3.81 xFIP. His success in 2024 includes the ability to limit baserunners with his .299 xwOBA, consisting of a .229 xBA and a 5.9% walk rate. Ober also does a terrific job at missing bats, producing a 25.9% walk rate, 28% whiff rate, and a 32.9% chase rate, which creates a worthwhile fantasy ceiling.
The Detroit Tigers bring one of baseball's more uninspiring offenses into play today. They are scoring a below-average 4.2 runs per game on the campaign. The Tigers have been particularly underwhelming against right-handed pitching, producing a 93 wRC+ with a .689 OPS and a 23.9% strikeout rate. Riley Greene headlines ways this matchup can go sour, but Ober is in a great position to succeed here.
Also Consider: Cole Ragans, Bryce Miller, Tobias Myers, Joey Cantillo
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DraftKings, FanDuel Infielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Bobby Witt Jr. - SS, KC vs. Javier Assad ($6.4K DK, $4.3K FD)
The price tag is premium, but Bobby Witt Jr. is worth spending up for if you can get there. He boasts a tremendous .342/.388/.589 slash line with 18 home runs, 23 stolen bases, and a 166 wRC+. Witt's advanced metrics are somehow even more impressive than the real-life results, featuring a .416 xwOBA, .609 xSLG, 15% barrel rate, and a 50.4% hard-hit rate. Between power-hitting and stolen bases, there are numerous ways Witt can generate a slate-breaking performance.
On the surface, Javier Assad is having a great season, sporting a 3.15 ERA. Underneath, the advanced metrics propose a remarkably different conclusion. Across 18 outings, Assad carries a 4.74 xERA and a 4.52 xFIP. His struggles include surrendering a .486 slugging percentage to right-handed hitters.
Royce Lewis - 3B, MIN vs. Alex Faedo ($5.2K DK, $3.5K FD)
Royce Lewis returned from another injured list stint this week and seemingly has not missed a beat. He has hit safely in both games back, including hitting a home run and a double on Saturday. Overall, Lewis sports a fantastic 1.026 OPS with 11 home runs, despite being limited to only 26 games played so far in 2024. He is not exactly cheap, but it's not farfetched to suggest that Lewis is underpriced.
Royce Lewis is back to hitting homers. 💪 pic.twitter.com/BukPz78aDf
— MLB (@MLB) July 27, 2024
The Detroit Tigers' pitching plan for today is a bit uncertain. We know that Alex Faedo gets the start but will only serve as an opener. From there, there is an expectation that Kenta Maeda could enter in long relief, which would be great news for the Minnesota Twins. Maeda has a horrible 7.07 ERA this season, and the advanced numbers are not much more forgiving. He has surrendered a .459 xSLG and a 9.1% barrel rate.
Juan Yepez - 1B, WSH vs. Miles Mikolas ($3.5K DK, $3.3K FD)
Unexpectedly, Juan Yepez has been the hottest batter in the Washington Nationals' lineup for the past few weeks. Since debuting with the team on July 5th, he has hit safely in 17 of 18 contests, including a pair of home runs and eight multi-hit performances. Overall, Yepez owns a tremendous .377/.429/.609 slash line and is a fantastic value today.
Miles Mikolas is among the worst pitchers on this slate. Through 21 appearances, he carries a weak 5.02 ERA. While the advanced metrics are mildly more encouraging, the numbers are still ugly. Mikolas has surrendered a generous .465 xSLG and a 41.7% hard-hit rate.
DraftKings, FanDuel Outfielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Marcell Ozuna - OF, ATL vs. David Peterson ($5.8K DK, $4.1K FD)
It can't be overstated how disappointing the Atlanta Braves offense has been this season, but that does not at all apply to Marcell Ozuna. Ozuna is slashing .307/.385/.596 with 30 home runs this season. The 33-year-old has absolutely scorched the ball, generating a .649 xSLG, 18.3% barrel rate, 56% hard-hit rate, and a 93.2 MPH average exit velocity. Ozuna is worth the expensive price tag.
Marcell Ozuna crushes his 30th home run of the year! pic.twitter.com/RMPTg6U6Uh
— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) July 27, 2024
David Peterson has one of the more dramatic disconnects between on-field results and expected results. On the surface, he sports a strong 3.14 ERA, but a horrible 5.56 xERA defies his success. Peterson's struggles include relenting a 44.3% hard-hit rate, 90.6 MPH average exit velocity, and a .446 xSLG.
Anthony Santander - OF, BAL vs. Randy Vasquez ($5.1K DK, $3.9K FD)
Anthony Santander is well on his way to surpassing his career-high home run mark. The 29-year-old got off to a slow start this season but has mashed 20 home runs since the beginning of June. Overall, that brings Santander to a fantastic .829 OPS with 29 home runs and a 133 wRC+ for the 2024 campaign. He is one of many Baltimore Orioles bats that look great in this spot.
Randy Vasquez will be a preferred pitcher to target against on this slate. Over 14 outings, he sports a horrible 5.89 xERA and a 4.55 xFIP. His struggles include surrendering a .315 xBA, a 9.7% barrel rate, and a .512 xSLG. Left-handed hitters have been particularly brutal against Vasquez, slugging .593 against him this season.
Colton Cowser - OF, BAL vs. Randy Vasquez ($3.7K DK, $3K FD)
The Baltimore Orioles stack is expensive overall, but Colton Cowser is an excellent value individually today. He sports a strong .762 OPS for the season, including 14 home runs and a 118 wRC+. While the surface numbers are enticing enough, it's Cowser's advanced metrics that suggest he's due for even better results. His outstanding batted-ball profile includes a .487 xSLG, 91 MPH average exit velocity, 14.3% barrel rate, and a 48.1% hard-hit rate.
DraftKings, FanDuel MLB DFS Stacks
1. Baltimore Orioles vs. Randy Vasquez
- Favorite Plays: Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, Anthony Santander, Ryan O'Hearn
2. Minnesota Twins vs. Alex Faedo
- Favorite Plays: Royce Lewis, Jose Miranda, Byron Buxton, Trevor Larnach
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