RADIO
Happy Saturday! Tonight’s slate is a nine-gamer that looks to be a lot of fun. We do have a Coors game to worry about, which means that we will have to decide what we want to do with that game (play or fade) before making any other decisions. The Giants look incredible against Kyle Freeland, so this one may be hard to sit out.
If one were to fade the Giants, there are many other teams to focus on for upside. The Diamondbacks profile very well against Kyle Hendricks, while the Red Sox could get under the skin of Justin Wrobleski and the Dodgers. With so many high-end options, it will be important to heavily monitor starting lineups to hunt for value as we get closer to lineups locking.
This article will provide my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 7/20/2024 and the slate locking at 7:05 p.m. EDT on DraftKings and FanDuel. The lineup picks will range from some elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports here. Monitoring injury news and today's MLB starting lineups is also essential.
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DraftKings, FanDuel Pitchers - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Grayson Rodriguez (BAL/RHP) at Texas Rangers ($9.4K DK, $10.4K FD)
Grayson Rodriguez is the highest-scoring pitcher on my model tonight by a significant margin. Despite a neutral matchup, he got to the top because of his high level of individual production over the last month and a half. His biggest asset is his ability to miss bats while racking up innings.
His upside is evidenced by his strikeout and swinging strike rates, each of which is the second highest of any pitchers on tonight’s slate since mid-May. He has six or more strikeouts in nine of his last 11 starts, and Rodriguez’s ability to go deep into games makes him a stable cash game option. He averages just shy of six innings pitched per start, having completed five or more innings in all but one start this year.
He has a 4.59 ERA in nine road starts, which is almost a run and a half worse than his home ERA, but those numbers are more representative of his early season struggles rather than his current form. Rodriguez has scored 19.9 or more DraftKings points in five of his last six road starts, so he seems to have figured things out as the season has worn on. He’s a strong play in all formats tonight.
George Kirby (SEA/RHP) vs. Houston Astros ($9K DK, $9.8K FD)
It may seem counterintuitive to recommend a high-priced pitcher against the Astros, but George Kirby has owned Houston this year. In two starts, he’s averaging six innings pitched with five-and-a-half strikeouts and just one earned run allowed per game. This game takes place in Seattle, which is where Kirby shines. His ERA is a run and a half lower at home than on the road, and he’s only allowed one home run in 54.2 home innings compared to 10 home runs allowed in 63 innings on the road.
He’s scored 49% more DraftKings points in home starts this year, putting up 15.5 or more DraftKings points in all but one start. Kirby is a bit expensive on FanDuel, where his lack of walks doesn’t play into his score, but at $9,000, he’s a strong value on DraftKings. I’d rather use Grayson Rodriguez in cash games, but Kirby makes for an excellent upside play in tournament lineups on both sites.
Also Consider: Logan Webb (on DraftKings), Pablo Lopez, Framber Valdez, Dylan Cease, Kyle Gibson, Brady Singer, Zac Gallen
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DraftKings, FanDuel Infielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Matt Olson - 1B, ATL vs. Kyle Gibson ($4.9K DK)
For some reason, this game isn’t on the FanDuel slate, but it is on the DraftKings slate. Olson is an interesting play, as he’s struggled all year. Maybe the All-Star break was good for him and he can turn his season around. It doesn’t hurt that he has a very comfortable matchup against Kyle Gibson. In his career, Olson has gone 10-for-25 with four home runs and a .960 slugging percentage against Gibson. Given his inconsistency this year, I wouldn’t look to Olson as a cash option, but the Braves likely will go overlooked on this slate, making Olson a tournament play with plenty of upside and a strong history of success to back it up.
Bobby Witt Jr. - SS, KC vs. Jonathan Cannon ($6.3K DK, $4.4K FD)
Is anyone hotter at the plate than Bobby Witt Jr. right now? Over his last 10 games, he has a .425 batting average and .725 slugging percentage. He finished as the runner-up in the Home Run Derby and has come out of the All-Star break continuing with his hot streak. On Friday night, Witt smacked a home run in his first at-bat of the second half of the season and then followed that up with two more hits. Tonight, he’s facing Jonathan Cannon, who ranks as one of the more vulnerable pitchers in my model. For the season, Witt is crushing right-handed pitching with a .238 ISO and a .559 slugging percentage. He’s a cash play if you can afford him.
Bobby Witt Jr is leading the MLB in multi-hit games this season. (40)
He’s hitting .447 in July.
Magma hot. pic.twitter.com/g2Yk8nQfys
— 643Royals (@643royals) July 20, 2024
Mitch Garver - C, SEA vs. Framber Valdez ($3.8K DK, $2.9K FD)
Mitch Garver is the kind of player where you must choose your spot carefully to roster him. First and foremost, he needs to be facing a left-handed pitcher. He leads the team with a .270 ISO and a .514 slugging percentage against lefties. Garver has hit half of his season’s home runs against left-handed pitching in about 33% of his at-bats.
Another thing you want, if you’re using Garver, is some kind of prior good history against the pitcher he will be facing. Against Framber Valdez, Garver has a .320 batting average and a .480 slugging percentage in 25 at-bats. As wild as it sounds, Garver is in play for cash games because of his success against Valdez. I prefer to use him on FanDuel for cash games with his value pricing, while I’d want him as a part of my DraftKings Mariners stacks as a pivot off Cal Raleigh.
DraftKings, FanDuel Outfielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Anthony Santander, OF - BAL at Max Scherzer ($4.7K DK, $3.5K FD)
Max Scherzer has looked good since he returned to the rotation for Texas, but that doesn’t mean he’s not vulnerable tonight. The one thing that’s always been true about Scherzer, and it is again this year, is that he can have problems with the long ball. He’s given up at least one home run in all but one start this year.
This makes sense, as Scherzer hasn’t allowed more ground balls than fly balls in any start this year. More fly balls will lead to more home runs allowed no matter how strong of an arm you are. Anthony Santander is a player who’s been able to get to Scherzer, racking up two home runs in 10 at-bats against the Rangers ace in his career. Overall, Santander has a .400 average and 1.100 slugging percentage against Mad Max. The Orioles are a sneaky contrarian stack, and Santander should be in it.
Heliot Ramos, OF - SF at Kyle Freeland ($5K DK, $3.7K FD)
Even at an elevated price point of $3,700, Heliot Ramos feels like a value on FanDuel (and he’s priced well on DraftKings as well). The Giants are in Colorado, facing a batting practice lefty in Kyle Freeland, making this one of the better spots on the slate.
Ramos has been pummeling lefties all year, posting a .429 ISO, a .830 slugging percentage, and an 8.6% home run rate. In reality, Ramos has been hitting everyone well, with a .317 batting average and three home runs over the last 10 games heading into the All-Star break. He’s a top cash-game option and should be one of your first clicks on this slate.
Heliot Ramos is on a 40-homer pace since May 8: pic.twitter.com/8MJVvIP9bp
— Alex Pavlovic (@PavlovicNBCS) July 11, 2024
Christian Yelich, OF - MIL at Pablo Lopez ($5.7K DK, $3.9K FD)
It’s awesome seeing Christian Yelich playing at an MVP level once again. He was hot going into the All-Star break, scoring double-digit DraftKings points in eight of his last 13 games. This is a great matchup for Yelich, as he’s shown the ability to get to Pablo Lopez in the past. He has five hits and a .583 slugging percentage in 12 career at-bats against the Twins’ star pitcher.
Against all righties this year, Yelich has posted monster numbers, including a .200 ISO, a .326 batting average, and a .526 slugging percentage. Lopez is one of the bigger-name pitchers on the slate, which will keep the ownership down for the Brewers. If you can afford both he and Ramos, Yelich is a high-floor stud for cash games that can get you there in a variety of ways.
DraftKings, FanDuel MLB DFS Stack
1. San Francisco Giants at Kyle Freeland (COL/LHP)
Favorite Plays: Jorge Soler, Matt Chapman, Heliot Ramos, Patrick Bailey, Michael Conforto
2. Arizona Diamondbacks at Kyle Hendricks (CHC/RHP)
Favorite Plays: Christian Walker, Ketel Marte, Corbin Carroll, Joc Pederson, Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
