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Welcome to another day of RotoBaller’s free MLB Betting Picks. Our betting team is here to bring you top notch insight, including analysis, trends, stats, and more!
A full disclaimer that I'm not even close to a professional, but I thoroughly enjoy doing research and making what I see to be educated picks. There's a lot of different bets to take action on nowadays, and I look over every prop, total, runline, etc. to try and find some value. I will say it's tough to find props available up until a few hours before first pitch, so check out my Twitter below for any adds not in the article.
The .500 season continues on! Thursday we went 1-1 with a game total going over but the team total over falling well short. Monday was one of the smallest slates I could remember with just three games, so we’ll look forward to a full slate on today! Follow me on Twitter @stevejanik6 for some fun banter and also extra plays on days I don’t write. Below are my MLB betting plays for Tuesday, June 8th. Let's make some money and have fun, but remember, please gamble responsibly!
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2021 MLB Betting Picks
- Moneyline Record: 5-5 (-.57u)
- O/U Record: 10-10-2 (-0.97u)
- Runline Record: 4-5 (-.35u)
- First 5 Record: 9-4-3 (+3.53u)
- Prop Record: 2-6-1 (-3.71u)
- 2021 Total Record: 30-30-6 (-2.07u)
Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox
O/U: 10 | HOU -110 BOS +120
Houston: Framber Valdez; Boston: Martin Perez;
In just his first two outings of e year, Valdez has returned to the dominant ways he has displayed in the past. This includes his last outing against these Red Sox where he struck out 10 in seven frames. The southpaw relies heavily on his sinker/curveball combo and has been very effective with them through his first 11 innings of 2021. Offensively, the Astros are deadly against LHP this season, and if you’ve seen me say that before, it’s because they faced him last Thursday and I anticipated a big day from the lineup and they flopped. They have a .357 wOBA and a 135 wRC+ against LHP since the beginning of May.
Perez has been quite solid so far this year, despite Statcast hinting it won’t last for long. A 3.09 ERA is highlighted by a 7 HR/FB%. He’s only recorded six or more strike outs four times in 11 starts, but the 30-year-old has done a great job limiting big innings, especially recently. In the southpaw’s last outing, he went 7.2 scoreless innings against these Astros while striking out four and walking just one. Offensively, Boston is above average against LHP, but not to the level of Houston. Their .322 wOBA and 102 wRC+ could give Valdez trouble, but as stated, he mowed them down last time out.
I think these starters go at it today, but ultimately these offenses are too powerful that something will give. Since May 14, Boston’s bullpen has posted a 2.88 ERA whereas Houston’s is sub-6. Give me the Red Sox full-game number and I look for them to mail the game down in the later innings.
Pick: Boston ML (+107, Draftkings) 1 Unit
Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago White Sox
O/U: 8.5 | CWS -135 TOR +125
Toronto: Robbie Ray; Chicago: Carlos Rodon
Ray has out-pitched the expectations of many, so far this season. A 3.57 ERA over 58 IP (10 starts) with 69/15 K/BB. However, a worrisome number is the 24 HR/FB%, a number that’s on pace to be his career worst. The southpaw has just two starts where he hasn’t served up at least one long ball, and he’s allowed at least two in five outings. Offensively, he’ll need some backup going against Rodon on the other side. The Blue Jays have had some success against LHP, posting a .315 wOBA and a 100 wRC+ but the 7 BB% is troublesome if they aren’t able to wrack up hits.
The White Sox continue to lead the AL Central, and Rodon has been a big piece of that puzzle. The lefty is 5-2 with a sub-2 ERA and an 80/13 K/BB across 54.2 innings. It’s no joke, as he ranks in the 88th percentile or higher in xERA, xSLG, xwOBA, and xBA, according to Statcast. He’ll have the stout White Sox lineup behind him. Since the start of May, Chicago has posted a .355 wOBA, 129 wRC+ and a .211 ISO against LHP, top five marks in MLB in that span. The lineup is healthy and ready to continue their strong surge into the summer.
Chicago checks all the boxes here: starting pitching advantage, offensive advantage, bullpen advantage, and they’re at home. They’re facing a pitcher who serves up home runs daily and struggles on the road. Meanwhile, the White Sox have had no issues taking care of business at home, going 19-14 against the runline at home, and are 19-12 as home favorites.
Pick: Chicago -1.5 (+142, Fanduel) 1 Unit
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