Lies, Damned Lies, and Fantasy Statistics - Broken Tackle Rate

November 12, 2020

Pierre Camus dives into misleading fantasy football statistics based on small sample, schedule quirks, outlier performances, or other factors to help fantasy GMs find streamers to target or avoid and make smart lineup decisions for Week 10.

Like it or not, the life force of your fantasy team usually dwells within the running backs on your roster. Having a stud like Dalvin Cook or Alvin Kamara alone can keep you at the top of the standings even when other players don't pan out. Those left holding the bag on Melvin Gordon, Jonathan Taylor and others who have missed significant time with injury know the other side all too well.

One of the sexiest stats (yes, stats can be sexy) for a running back is broken tackles a.k.a. missed tackles forced. Watching Derrick Henry stiff-arm defenders down the field or Josh Jacobs bowl over linemen at the goal-line is one of the biggest thrills for fans of the old school NFL game. This is undoubtedly a valuable tool but does it really translate to fantasy success?

Not all advanced metrics are meaningful and some can be downright deceptive. My goal is to point out potential outliers that could steer you wrong when making key lineup decisions for Week 10 and beyond in this weekly series.

Missed Tackles Forced

It may seem obvious what constitutes a broken tackle but this isn't a purely objective statistic to quantify like yardage gained. Football Outsiders defines a broken tackle as such: "either the ballcarrier escapes from the grasp of the defender, or the defender is in a good position for a tackle but the ballcarrier jukes him out of his shoes." Clearly, there's some wiggle room here but for the most part, we understand it when we see it. We also inherently understand which runners are good at this and why they are studs.

DALVIN COOK GETS LOOSE as he carves up the Lions Defense for a 70-yard rushing TD!!! ?

(via @NFL) pic.twitter.com/TONbVaJVpj

— Rotoworld Football (@Rotoworld_FB) November 8, 2020

I'll be using statistics from RotoWire to look at notable RBs with the highest and lowest Broken Tackle Total and Broken Tackle Percentage. As is often the case with advanced statistics, even ones as simple as targets, different sites may have different results. For reference, PFF has Jordan Wilkins as the leader in broken tackle rate whereas RotoWire has him 15th.

Highest % of missed tackles forced per rush attempt:

? Jordan Wilkins - 28%
? J.K. Dobbins - 27%
? Antonio Gibson - 26%
? Dalvin Cook - 25% pic.twitter.com/mQMKci5NUr

— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) November 10, 2020

Perhaps the most misleading aspect of this stat is comparing totals versus rates. Naturally, a running back who sees more carries will have the chance to register more broken tackles but also spend a lot more time trying to churn out yards in short-yardage situations and others where forcing a missed tackle isn't likely. That means a player who is higher on the leaderboard might be much lower in terms of percentage.

Josh Jacobs is a great example of this. He led the league last year in broken tackles forced and is tied for fifth this year, although his BTF% is down at 14.9%, far lower than superstars like Jordan Wilkins.

Josh Jacobs: Nice pic.twitter.com/69LPAy7W9P

— PFF (@PFF) May 18, 2020

It's no surprise that he is second in the league in rush attempts so the very volume that drives up his fantasy value makes him appear less effective as a runner if you focus on his broken-tackle rate alone.

Let's evaluate some other misleading broken tackle totals so you're not left in the dust when it comes to making the right choice for your fantasy teams.

Le'Veon Bell, Kansas City Chiefs

25.7% BT% (No. 1 RB), nine broken tackles

I have to begin with a blunt statement: Lev Bell is done being a fantasy asset. The fantasy community can shift blame from injury to Adam Gase to Clyde Edwards-Helaire to everything else except his on-field performance. He just isn't the same Bell from his Pittsburgh days and never will be again.

Not to take away from what he accomplished, but being part of a prolific offense that had the best offensive line in the game and a franchise QB in Ben Roethlisberger made things much easier. In New York, there was no Big Ben or Antonio Brown to take pressure off the running game and Bell flopped by producing a 3.27 yards per carry average. His receiving skills didn't bail him out either, as his four receptions and 29.4 receiving yards per game make him no better than Devonta Freeman.

Bell's high broken tackle rate is purely a product of small sample size since he barely touches the ball anymore. He's only averaging two yards after contact so it's not as if he's piling up yards when he does make defenders miss. Even if Clyde Edwards-Helaire were to miss time, I wouldn't expect Bell to be an automatic top-20 RB. The Chiefs have shown they have no problem abandoning the run even when they are up big.

Devin Singletary, Buffalo Bills

23.2% BT% (No. 3 RB), 22 broken tackles

Heading into 2020, Singletary was expected in some circles to break out and truly secure fantasy RB2 status. In this particular category, he was tabbed as a stat sleeper by advanced stat guru @chapulana. As he deftly pointed out, Singletary not only averaged more than five yards per carry as a rookie, he gained more yards after contact than before it (413-362). This was largely due to 20 broken tackles, ranking 14th in the league despite a low volume of carries.

Once again, he is among the leaders in broken tackle rate and averages a solid 2.5 yards after contact. So why has his rushing average dropped to 4.1 Y/A this year, rendering him nearly useless in fantasy? When he isn't breaking tackles, he's getting stuffed. Singletary has been stuffed 18 times on 95 attempts. The only players with a higher "stuff rate" are Joshua Kelley, Adrian Peterson, Mike Davis, and Melvin Gordon. Gordon and Kelley in particular are examples where volume hasn't led to value.

Standing at 5'7", it's easy to understand why Singletary is an all-or-nothing runner. It's the same reason why Buffalo brought in Zack Moss to share touches with him and why Moss is used more often in the red zone. As a result, Moss has five RZ touchdowns to Singletary's one. Singletary hasn't even excelled in the games Moss was out injured, so there isn't a case to be made for hidden upside. He will break off big runs on occasion but not at the rate he did as a rookie and not enough to be reliable in weekly lineups.

Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts

4.7% BT% (No. 71 RB), 5 broken tackles

Is this misleading or very telling? Taylor's struggles are now inducing panic in many a fantasy manager, especially in dynasty leagues where the 1.01 was often spent on him. How can one of the best running backs in NCAA history, running behind one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, fail to even average four yards a carry and lose touches to Jordan Wilkins?

The answer obviously lies with broken tackle rate! Wilkins is No. 1 according to PFF and Taylor is near the bottom of the barrel. This is truly confounding as Taylor was known for this exact skill coming out of Wisconsin. Note: perhaps we should have seen Kelley's struggles coming.

I won't begin to pretend to have the answer here but we know it's not a matter of Taylor not possessing that skillset or running style. If he begins to put it all together with his 4.4 speed, the truthers will have been right all along. For the rest of 2020, I'm choosing to believe in Taylor over Wilkins but in reality, I'm not relying on either to win a fantasy championship because it's an ugly RBBC right now and it doesn't appear it will change with the way Frank Reich is using his running backs.

Gus Edwards, Baltimore Ravens

8.0% BT% (No. 64 RB), 6 broken tackles

Gus the Bus didn't get his nickname because of his elusiveness. It's because his first name rhymes with bus.

via GIPHY

As a bruising 238-pound tailback, Edwards should be breaking way more tackles than this but he doesn't need to. Edwards is the type of runner who invites contact and almost uses defenders to gain leverage while moving forward. He averages just 2.67 seconds behind the line of scrimmage, one of the lowest marks in the league. You won't find a truer north-south runner.

While Edwards doesn't shed tacklers at a high clip, he does carry them quite a bit. 54% of his rushing yards come after contact. According to NFL NextGenStats, that has led him to 45.9% rushing yards over expected. Only five running backs are performing better by that standard: Kareem Hunt, Dalvin Cook, Darrell Henderson, Chris Carson, and Phillip Lindsay ?.

Edwards has obvious limitations as a pass-catcher and has to share touches with a dynamic rookie in J.K. Dobbins and a quarterback who runs the ball more than either of his running backs. He provides a solid floor, especially in standard leagues, and remains undervalued based on how efficient he is with the touches he's given.

Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints

11.5% BT% (No. 46 RB), 11 broken tackles

There is nothing illuminating to say about Kamara's fantasy or real-life value based on this. I put this here as a perfect example of how stats can be completely meaningless. Kamara is one of the worst at forcing missed tackles this year, apparently. Yet it hasn't kept him from averaging 4.4 yards per carry or being one of the top-scoring running backs in the fantasy world.

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