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If you consume any sort of March Madness content, the first thing you'll hear is how good teams must be in KenPom. Or to be exact, how they rank in offensive and defensive efficiency. I'm going to touch on the handful of teams who actually can win the NCAA Tournament, but for the most part, those numbers don't mean much when it comes to game-by-game breakdowns. Here's an example:
Just six teams have a Champ in their 10 most similar efficiency profiles https://t.co/s1vwatwVpi pic.twitter.com/TorHILC06a
— Bart T🏀rvik (@totally_t_bomb) March 18, 2024
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When filling out my bracket, I prefer to revert to this advice: "Almost anyone can make the Final Four, only a select few can win the title."
Here, I'm going to break down every first-round matchup and pod with game-by-game and futures bets. The Midwest Region is my region of frauds. Tennessee coach Rick Barnes has a tendency to get bounced early, Kansas is overrated and everyone knows it, and Purdue is, well, let's just say susceptible to lose against a low-seeded opponent.
No. 1 Purdue vs. No. 16 Montana State/Grambling
We joke, we kid, but to be honest, these teams have almost no chance against Purdue. Grambling can actually pressure the ball but has zero answer for Zach Edey. Meanwhile, Montana State is Swiss cheese in the post. The difference between the 2024 and 2023 Purdue teams comes down to two things: a year of maturity and the addition of Lance Jones.
Last season's young backcourt got overwhelmed by St. Peter's and couldn't handle the ball pressure. This year, those guards are improved, with Jones providing an extra spark on both ends of the court. They're a legitimate contender and have an interesting path ahead of them.
No. 8 Utah State vs. No. 9 TCU (-3.5)
The general public seems to love TCU, and while I don't share the same enthusiasm, I do think they advance. Utah State's offense runs through Great Osobor in the post. TCU doesn't have a great paint defense, but they're good in transition and have an athletic advantage.
The Horned Frogs' length should allow them to contest jumpers while leaking out in transition and pushing the pace. It's not all sunshine, as the Aggies rebound well and take care of the ball. However, as mentioned, the length of TCU should be bothersome for Osobor's ability to score in the paint.
#𝙼𝚆𝙼𝙱𝙱 𝙿𝚕𝚊𝚢𝚎𝚛 + 𝙽𝚎𝚠𝚌𝚘𝚖𝚎𝚛 𝚘𝚏 𝚝𝚑𝚎 𝚈𝚎𝚊𝚛
Great Osobor, Utah State#AtThePEAK | #AggiesAllTheWay pic.twitter.com/xXJ8arBuP3
— Mountain West (@MountainWest) March 12, 2024
No. 5 Gonzaga (-6) vs. No. 12 McNeese State
Will Wade's McNeese Cowboys are another dangerous 12-seed capable of a fabled 12/5 upset. They play a fun trap/press zone defense, controlling tempo and forcing tons of turnovers. On top of this, they crash the offensive glass and shoot the fourth-highest percentage from three.
Their flaw is that they haven't played any strong teams. One could argue the win at UAB is solid, but the Blazers were a poor team on all ends of the floor until their conference tournament.
McNeese State is the best pick and roll defense in the country by points per possession and they’re doing it with triple switching. They switch ball screens and if there is a roll a third defender rotates in, keeping the ball on the perimeter and confusing opponents. pic.twitter.com/06BKBPPJt1
— Eric Fawcett (@EricFawcett_) January 14, 2024
Meanwhile, Gonzaga struggled early but has been hammering West Coast Conference teams until falling to Saint Mary's in the conference final. Ryan Nembhard and Co. do a solid job of holding onto the rock, but their real advantage is in the post.
Drew Timme (not Graham Ike) is excellent in back-to-the-basket situations and should be the focal point for Mark Few. I do wonder if Will Wade's unique defense can take this away and force Gonzaga into uncomfortable situations offensively. McNeese is another trendy underdog with the absolute ability to win a pair of games. I can't blame you for taking either side in this one as I haven't even made up my mind yet.
No. 4 Kansas (-8.5) vs. No. 13 Samford
The health of Kansas is the single most important factor in this matchup and for the Jayhawks' NCAA Tournament future. Look, I'm not the biggest Hunter Dickinson fan. In fact, I haven't been a fan of this Jayhawks team all year, as they're probably my most bet-against team.
It’s sad when the frauds show their true colors a week or two before the tournament. Talking to you Texas and Kansas
— Dim Jonovan (@DrRoddy_) March 14, 2024
That being said, they're still a talented and dangerous team when healthy. They beat Kentucky, Tennessee, and Connecticut in the non-conference but faltered late in the season with an injured Kevin McCullar Jr. and Hunter Dickinson.
If you don't know anything about Samford, they play "Bucky Ball," named after head coach Bucky McMillan. That essentially means playing uptempo, shooting tons of threes and layups, and avoiding the inefficient midrange game.
The difference between them and some of the higher-seeded paper tigers is the ability to force turnovers. In fact, Samford is 17th nationally in defensive turnover rate while shooting nearly 40% from three as a team. The roster is led by junior forward Achor Achor and contains almost all veteran players in the rotation.
The positive for Kansas is that they've faced teams with similar profiles (though with better talent) like Kentucky and Baylor and won. So this game environment shouldn't come as a system shock. Bill Self claims Dickinson and McCullar will be ready to play, and if they're close to full strength, I think the Jayhawks' overall size and skill will eventually overwhelm the 13-seed.
*Update* Bill Self announced Tuesday that Kevin McCullar will not be available in this tournament. He is Kansas' most impactful player and the loss should not be taken lightly. This news makes Samford much more of a live dog while limiting the Jayhawks' ceiling quite a bit.
No. 6 South Carolina (-1) vs. No. 11 Oregon
There seem to be quite a few sharp college basketball minds on the Oregon Ducks in this spot, and how could you blame them? After beating Arizona and Colorado in the Pac-12 Tournament, they're finally healthy. N'Faly Dante is playing out of his mind, and coach Dana Altman has a history of success in the tournament setting. Their unique defensive scheme is difficult to game plan against and causes plenty of problems for inexperienced teams.
25 PTS & 9 REB.
N'Faly Dante came up CLUTCH 🔥 pic.twitter.com/Qxd1vSExEY
— Pac-12 Conference (@pac12) March 17, 2024
On the other side, Lamont Paris has completely turned this South Carolina program around, proving they can compete with some of the best teams in the country. Specifically for this matchup, South Carolina really wants to slow down and control the tempo. They've struggled against teams like Auburn and Alabama, who play fast and outscore their opponents, but that's not Oregon's game.
Although the Ducks are playing at a high level, they've been working with a slower-paced, defensive-minded approach. There's no real talent disparity on either side, but I believe in the Gamecocks' ability to execute in the half-court while defending Dante in the post. The toughest team in college hoops could grind this one out and move on to the round of 32.
No. 3 Creighton (-12.5) vs. No. 14 Akron
My take on this Creighton team is one that I so badly want to be right about. They are SOFT. Charmin Ultra Soft to be exact (no free advertising here). Their offensive and defensive efficiency metrics are great and would lead you to believe they're a true national title contender. They also played a perfect game and destroyed the national title favorite Huskies at home in mid-February.
Center Ryan Kalkbrenner is a National Player of the Year candidate surrounded by sharpshooters. But the Blue Jays don't have what I look for in a basketball team. Despite being awesome in a number of categories, they don't force turnovers, don't crash the offensive glass hard, and basically never get to the free-throw line.
Those are three ways college basketball teams create easy points and extra possessions for themselves. Creighton also got bullied by a number of less-talented teams, including losing to Providence twice and Colorado State on a neutral court.
Akron may not be the most talented mid-major in the dance, but they sure are one of the toughest. Despite being an undersized roster, they get up in your face on defense and battle like crazy on the glass. Enrique Freeman is the heart and soul of the Zips, with wing Ali Ali being the X factor. Against MAC opponents, Ali is able to use his size to get buckets in the paint, but it will be interesting to see how he fares in this specific matchup.
Akron may not be the team to defeat Creighton, but they sure will fight like crazy and make the Blue Jays earn their second-round berth. This trio of Akron, Oregon, and South Carolina is pure toughness, and someone is going to punish this soft Blue Jays squad.
No. 7 Texas vs. No. 10 Virginia/Colorado State
Without knowing the opponent, this one's hard to break down. Colorado State probably poses a tougher test, while Virginia can frustrate good offenses on any given night.
Overall, Texas is an okay team without much upside. Former Cinderella guard Max Abmas and Tyrese Hunter can get hot from the outside, but they are undersized and a liability on defense. Dylan Disu plays at a very high level at times but doesn't get a ton of scoring help in the post.
Overall, I think the Longhorns beat Virginia and have a toss-up with Colorado State. Tennessee is waiting to take down whichever team survives this 7/10 matchup.
No. 2 Tennessee (-21.5) vs. No. 15 Saint Peter's
Saint Peter's is back and looking to defeat yet another "fraudulent" coach in the first round. Last year, it was Purdue and Matt Painter; this year, it's Rick Barnes and Tennessee. It's funny how two of the worst March coaches get paired in the same region with the 16-seed slayer Saint Peter's once again.
Yes, Rick Barnes has struggled in March. Also yes, this is the best Tennessee team he's had. Dalton Knecht has transformed into a true NBA wing, averaging over 21 points and four rebounds per game.
Dalton Knecht dropped 40 points on the Kentucky Wildcats last night 🍊
40 PTS | 4 REB | 14-29 FG | 6-15 3PT | 6-9 FT
- Knecht displayed his tough shot making ability, tough finishes at the rim when chased off the 3PT Line, slashing feel off-ball and smooth shooting stroke along… pic.twitter.com/nXx0jwqX85
— No Ceilings (@NoCeilingsNBA) March 10, 2024
Last year, the Peacocks gave Purdue's guards fits with constant ball pressure. The Vols, however, do not have the same inexperienced backcourt. Zakai Zeigler, Santiago Vescovi, and Knecht are all competent ball-handlers with the ability to start their offense.
Saint Peter's also turns the ball over a lot, which Tennessee should be able to take advantage of. I'm a big fan of this Volunteer team and think this is the year they finally make a deep run. Please don't fail me, Rick Barnes.
Region Picks
With Purdue, Tennessee, Texas, Kansas, and Creighton, the list of Midwest frauds goes on and on. Some due to coaching lapses and some with pure talent/playstyle deficiencies.
However, someone does have to make the Final Four here. If Purdue can't this year, I don't know if they ever will. Gonzaga has the metrics of a Final Four team, but could also fall to McNeese in Round 1. The Jayhawks and Blue Jays are in a similar boat.
Like Purdue, the Volunteers have a winnable path and will likely end up as my pick to win the region. Dalton Knecht can get a bucket in crunch time and they have the defense and rebounding combo I look for in good basketball teams.
My current NCAA Tournament Bets:
Florida Atlantic ML (+114 DraftKings), risk 1u to win 1.14u
Texas A&M +3 (-110 DraftKings), risk 1u to win .91u
Drake ML (+105 DraftKings), risk 1u to win 1.05u
Alabama -9 (-110 Caesars) risk 1u to win .91u
YTD 132-108-2, +10.97u
New Mexico to make Final Four (+2500 BetMGM) risk .4u to win 10u
Futures: 0-2, -.6u
Follow me on X @DrRoddy_ or here for up-to-date bets
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