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Analysis of five fantasy baseball closers and relief pitchers to draft in the middle rounds. Potential 2023 fantasy baseball sleepers and undervalued RP to target in drafts.
Welcome officially to the 2023 fantasy baseball season! Spring training is in full force, and fantasy managers are gearing up for another exciting season in the MLB. Once you reach the middle rounds of drafts, everyone is looking to draft players that can provide a great return on value. You can start taking calculated risks on emerging prospects, overlooked veterans, players returning from injury, or even players with some playing time concerns out of the gate. The early rounds are critical, and the late rounds are where you can take your chances on dart-throw sleepers, but the middle rounds can make or break your roster.
Today, we're looking at some middle-round relief pitchers for you to consider drafting in your season-long leagues this season. Are their ADPs undervalued? Will they make significant fantasy contributions and become a priority mid-round draft target? Read on to see our take.
Our editors have hand-picked these specific MLB players for your draft prep enjoyment. Usually only available to Premium subscribers, the five outlooks below are meant to give you a taste of the in-depth analysis you receive with our industry-leading 2023 Draft Kit. Be sure to subscribe today to start reading all of our in-depth 2023 player outlooks and many other premium articles and tools including Team Sync, the Live Draft Sync assistant, Custom Rankings Service, and so much more -- available exclusively in our 2023 Draft Kit.
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Clay Holmes, New York Yankees
New York Yankees relief pitcher Clay Holmes began last season as a man possessed as he allowed only one earned run through his first 30 appearances, picking up 11 saves in that span. Through June, Holmes had a WHIP under 0.90, a batting average against under .180, and logged over a strikeout-per-inning as the Yankee closer earned an All-Star game appearance. The wheels fell off in the second half, however, as Holmes pitched to a ghastly 4.31 ERA after the break and was removed from the closer role.
The inherent small sample size with relievers always leads to some risk of poor stretches, but his elite skill-based metrics insist Holmes is closer to the pitcher he was at the start of last season. Holmes finished in the 90th percentile or better in xBA, xwOBA, and xSLG, and barrel avoidance. His 42.6% whiff rate on his slider is elite as his sinker/slider mix remains the ideal profile for a high-leverage reliever. Holmes should enter Spring Training as the favorite for saves in New York and offers RP1 upside for a suppressed average draft position in the 160 overall range.
-- Mike Schwarzenbach - RotoBaller
Ryan Helsley, St. Louis Cardinals
Ryan Helsley emerged as a bullpen asset for the Cardinals in late 2021, and last season, he became one of the premier relievers in baseball. This year, he could very well end up being a top-three closer in fantasy. Helsley began the year sharing the ninth inning with Giovanny Gallegos but impressed to the point he gained the sole role, finishing the year with a 9-1 W-L record, 1.25 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, 94 Ks, and 19 saves (64.2 IP).
Helsley's 93.4% LOB% won't sustain into 2023 but his 2.04 xERA, 2.60 xFIP, and 2.02 SIERA all suggest his ERA could be around 2.00 even if that regresses. His 39.3% K% (which ranked in the 99th percentile) will also help to mitigate baserunners he allows.
Helsley's 99.6 mph average fastball velocity ranked fifth among all pitchers and was in the 99th percentile for the spin rate, which helps explain why it had a measly .212 wOBA and .233 SLG against it.
If he can maintain last year's levels, even with some LOB% regression towards the norm, Helsley should have no problems topping 30 saves and could end the season as a top-five reliever in fantasy, outperforming his ADP of ~73 (10th among relief pitchers).
-- Jamie Steed - RotoBaller
Felix Bautista, Baltimore Orioles
Serving as the closer for the Baltimore Orioles, Felix Bautista has emerged as one of the most feared bullpen arms in the game. Signed out of the Dominican Republic, Bautista was finally promoted after seven service years in the minors. In 2022, the 27-year-old twirled a 2.19 ERA while striking out 88 batters.
He obtained 15 saves as well as 13 holds. His average fastball clocked in at 99.2 mph, which mixes well with a deceptive split-finger. Steamer projects Bautista to retain a 3.14 ERA across 29 saves.
After just one fruitful season, Steamer already endorses Bautista as a force to be reckoned with. The Dominican native will be pretty valuable in leagues that account for saves and holds, and let's see if we can improve his 70.13 ADP.
-- Raphael Negnewitzky - RotoBaller
Kenley Jansen, Boston Red Sox
Kenley Jansen has consistently pitched on division-winning teams throughout his major league career after 12 seasons with the Los Angeles Dodgers and a one-season stay with the NL East-champion Atlanta Braves in 2022.
As a result, his 329 saves since 2014 are not only the most in baseball during that time but 74 clear of second-place Craig Kimbrel. After signing a two-year, $32 million contract with the Boston Red Sox in free agency this winter, his saves outlook doesn't appear so rosy.
He's remained a productive pitcher into his mid-30s, leading baseball with 90 saves while working to a 2.86 ERA and 31.9% K% across 157.1 innings over the last three seasons, the latter of which ranks sixth among MLB relievers over that stretch. He now goes from the 101-61 Braves to the 78-84 Red Sox, who finished in the basement of their division last season.
According to Steamer, he still owns a 78 ADP, but his saves are projected to drop from 41 last season to just 26 this time around. He's our 18th-ranked reliever and 125th overall ranked player heading towards the 2023 season, making his current ADP appear overvalued in the process.
-- Brenton Kemp - RotoBaller
Camilo Doval, San Francisco Giants
Camilo Doval was on his way to having a solid 2022 as the Giants' closer with a first-half line of 39.2 IP, 3-5 W-L record, 2.95 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 12 saves, and 49 Ks. Then in July, Doval unleashed a sinker, a pitch he had never thrown before. Not only did he throw the sinker, but he also threw it more than any other pitch with a 57% usage over the remainder of the season.
Doval's second-half line was even better with a 3-1 W-L record, 1.93 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 15 saves, and 31 Ks (28.0 IP). The sinker led to Doval's groundball rate (GB%) jumping from 48.5% in the first half to 67.6% in the second half. What you will also have noticed is the drop in strikeouts, from 29.0% K% in the first half to 26.5% K% in the second half.
Doval's one flaw is too many walks, as his 10.5% BB% was the fifth-highest among the 17 pitchers with at least 20 saves. The free passes won't hurt Doval providing he can maintain that high GB% and decent K%, although not allowing a home run in the second half won't sustain him throughout 2023.
He's got all the pieces to put together a very productive season and outperform his ADP of ~77 (number 12 relief pitcher).
-- Jamie Steed - RotoBaller
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