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Analysis of five fantasy baseball outfielders drafted in the middle rounds. Are these OF undervalued players and potential sleepers to target in drafts?
Once you reach the middle-to-late rounds of drafts, it would be smart to consider drafting some upside fliers that can provide a great return on value. You can take a risk or two on a variety of different players, including a prospect, forgotten veterans, players returning from injuries, or even players with skills but have playing time concerns. It is essential to know the player pool so you can take a chance at a spot in the draft that you're comfortable without deviating from your overall strategy.
Today we are looking at some mid-round outfielders for you to consider. Do we think they are draft targets or players to avoid? Are their ADPs undervalued? Will they make significant fantasy contributions and be one of your later-round draft sleepers? Read on to see our take.
Our editors have hand-picked these specific MLB players for your draft prep enjoyment. Normally only available to Premium subscribers, the five outlooks below are meant to give you a taste of the in-depth analysis you receive with our industry-leading 2020 Draft Kit. Be sure to subscribe today and start reading all 400+ of our 2020 player outlooks, and many other premium articles and tools, available exclusively in our 2020 Draft Kit.
Kyle Schwarber - Chicago Cubs
Kyle Schwarber finally had the season we’ve been waiting for, but it was obscured by a .250 batting average and an underwhelming season from the Cubs. Fantasy owners should look past that and see the 38 home runs and 174 R+RBI as a new phase for Schwarber. The exit velocity and raw power have always been there, but in previous seasons, Schwarber struggled against lefties. As a result, he was often left on the bench or exploited by situational relievers late in the game.
After managing an abysmal 68 wRC+ against lefties previously, Schwarber posted a functional 93 wRC+ against them in 2019. As a result, he saw 100 more plate appearances in 2019, and he was able to leverage that additional playing time into more production. Schwarber seems like he has been around forever, but he’s still only 27 years old, and he could repeat or even improve on his 2019 performance. If he does that, he’ll be well worth his 149 ADP.
Schwarber’s batted-ball data shows a player who was measurably better in every facet: he posted more barrels (55), a better xBA (.267), and a higher xSLG (.553). In fact, both Steamer and Depth Charts expect Schwarber to be more valuable in 2020. Given the systems’ tendency to regress players towards the mean, that gives fantasy owners plenty of reason to draft Schwarber optimistically. Expect another season with a .250 batting average, more than 30 homers, 85 R, 85 RBI, and a few steals thrown in.
Oscar Mercado - Cleveland Indians
Oscar Mercado wasn't expected to be an everyday starter in the Indians outfield last season but that's what wound up happening once he debuted in mid-May. He hit .304 over his first two weeks in the bigs and never looked back. He ultimately slashed .269/.318/.443 with 15 home runs, 54 RBI, 15 steals, and 70 runs scored in 115 games as a rookie.
Mercado proved to be a nice source of speed that was freely available off waivers, along with enough power to be playable as a third or fourth OF option. In leagues where OBP or OPS count instead of AVG, Mercado is less marketable. He walked less than 6% of the time and posted a .262 xBA that is far from elite. His main selling point is speed; Mercado's sprint speed ranked in the 97th percentile.
If he continues to bat second in the order, he should also score enough runs to serve as a starter in most 5x5 leagues. If he should move down to the order in a revamped Indians lineup, Mercado's value would take a slight hit. All told, Mercado should be widely owned and looks to be a top-40 outfielder for fantasy purposes. He is currently going around pick 120 but should targeted just outside the top 100 overall picks if speed isn't addressed early in your draft.
Kyle Tucker - Houston Astros
Astros outfielder Kyle Tucker is a volatile buy in 2020 drafts due to the uncertainty of his everyday role in Houston, but the upside is first-round production. Tucker hit 34 homers with 30 steals in 536 plate appearances at Triple-A in ‘19 before contributing four homers and five swipes in 72 PAs for Houston. He has true 40/40 skills that harken to Ronald Acuna Jr.’s outlook.
We know George Springer and Michael Brantley will play while Yordan Alvarez occupies the designated hitter slot, leaving Tucker splitting time with Josh Reddick, pending injuries. For now, Steamer projects 404 plate appearances while Depth Charts is at 427. Early money should be on Tucker’s talent winning out, and you draft talent early.
His obstacle with PT is team control, but even 120 games could yield a 25/20/.250 season per Steamer projections. If he eclipses the 500-PA mark in hitter-happy Houston, then we could have a 30/25 year on the cheap. He is worth consideration around pick 120 per our staff rankings, which his NFBC ADP of 125 aligns with.
David Dahl - Colorado Rockies
Colorado Rockies outfielder David Dahl was selected to his first All-Star Game last year, but his fantasy owners may have found themselves a bit underwhelmed by his overall output. Dahl only played in 100 games in 2019 due to being shut down for the season while dealing with back spasms in July. He slashed .302/.353./.524 on the year while tallying 15 home runs, 61 RBI and 67 runs.
Dahl was one of the top prospects in the Rockies' system just a few years back, but he's yet to establish himself as a standout in any one category for fantasy purposes. He's hit .297 over 240 games in the majors, so he figures to provide a boost in batting average. However, his plate discipline overall has been less than ideal as he had a 26.6% strikeout rate and just a 6.8% walk rate in 2019. He was on pace for about 24 home runs over a 162-game season last year, a mark that really doesn't move the needle too much in this day in age, especially for an outfielder who doesn't steal many bases.
All in all, Dahl is still a bit of a mystery for fantasy purposes, which makes him both interesting and a bit risky. He's much better at home, as is often the case for Rockies hitters. He posted an OPS of 1.000 at Coors last year compared with only .751 on the road, which makes him tough to trust in weekly-lock head-to-head leagues and better for daily-lock formats. Right now, he has an ADP of about 146. He should be able to warrant a starting outfield spot in most leagues throughout the season, but don't expect him to have a big breakout campaign where he provides top-20 outfielder numbers.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. - Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto Blue Jays outfielder Lourdes Gurriel delivered on some of his breakout hype during the 2019 season by slashing .277/.327/.541 with 20 homers, 50 RBI, and six stolen bases in just 84 games. Bouts with injuries and mediocrity occasionally hampered the 26-year-old, as did an unflattering 25.1% strikeout rate, but Gurriel's 2019 campaign offered a glimpse into his fantasy potential for 2020.
He was above average in several batting metrics in 2019 including, hard-hit percentage (44.8%), barrel percentage (11.2%), and FB% (28%). Likewise, the Rogers Centre had the most influential home-run factor in the big leagues (1.317). Gurriel has only played a combined 142 games through his first two MLB seasons due to injury issues, but if he can stay healthy, he will easily surpass all of his career highs.
He is entering the prime of his career, and he figures to bat in the heart of the youthful Blue Jays' order. With an ADP of 169.89 and a clean bill of health, the Cuban outfielder should surely outperform his price point on draft day.
