RADIO
Antonio Losada looks at the fantasy football ADP variation of three wide receivers and assesses their fantasy football value.
We continue looking at ADP risers and fallers through the offseason as we already completed our first run back in June. You can check our first review of the early-summer risers and fallers at running back, wide receiver, tight end, and quarterback.
Average Draft Position (ADP) indicates the average position where a player is drafted over more than one fantasy football draft. You can consider it as the price you have to pay to draft and get a player on your team.
ADPs are helpful to gauge the average value of players on draft day as viewed by the competition.
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Wide Receivers - ADP Risers
Allen Lazard, Green Bay Packers
If there is a word to define Allen Lazard's offseason, it would be silence. We have not heard from him in weeks -- or months if you push it. Green Bay didn't add any weapon to its receiving corp through the draft, though the team does have a stud of a wide receiver in Davante Adams (who is on a contract year). Other than that, the roster depth is slim at best when it comes to the WR/TE position.
It seems like most fantasy GMs have yet to realize what's going on in Green Bay and how the next season will develop in terms of targets at the receiving positions. Sure, Adams will get most of the chances, but someone has to support him throughout the year and Lazard is the best-positioned player to do so. PFF has Lazard projected to reach 168 PPR points, which is good for WR42 and basically translates to a weekly WR3/FLEX play.
If Lazard can put up those numbers (94 targets, 60 receptions, 808 yards, 5 TD), then his ADP is an absolute steal these days even while clearly being on the rise. Lazard is only the WR64 (196 OVR) off the board but projects to end the year as the 105th-best player in fantasy football. That makes him the ultimate steal. Only Danny Amendola and Russell Gage have higher ROIs (ADP/expected final Rk) among WRs with ADPs over 20. Draft Lazard now before it's too late!
Jalen Reagor, Philadelphia Eagles
Jalen Reagor is currently an average player in terms of ROI. He's virtually a 1:1 bet, as his ADP of 147 OVR (WR50) pretty much correlates with his ranking in PFF projections for the 2020 season (140th-best player with 138 PPR points over 16 games). That being said, fantasy GMs keep buying into Reagor and raising his ADP by the day.
While it is true that Philly just lost Marquise Goodwin with the recently-acquired receiver opting out of the 2020 season, Reagor still feels like a borderline risk to take in drafts early. If his ADP keeps trending up, it will enter the 10th-round realm sooner rather than later, at which point it might not make much sense to draft spend such a pick on the rookie.
Only because the Eagles lack players on offense, Reagor will definitely see targets and approach the 90-to-100 mark on the year. But, keep in mind this will likely still be Zach Ertz's offense and TE Dallas Goedert is also going to demand his fair share of passes. If you want to spend that 11th/12th-round pick on Reagor, you'd still probably get some good ROI. If his ADP keeps rising, though, I'd advise passing on the rookie and looking for more solid options.
DeSean Jackson, Philadelphia Eagles
As it was the case the last time we covered rising WRs, D-Jax is still a steal even with a bump up in his ADP. Jackson's projection of 153 PPR points for the 2020 season has gone up after factoring in Marquise Goodwin's opt-out. The veteran's ROI has gotten better since the last time we went over it. It all comes down to this: injured players from the prior season make fantasy GMs forget about them, and even though they are slowly catching up with the rest of us smart fantasy GMs, they are still way down on D-Jax.
DeSean Jackson could only be a part of three games in 2019, but even with that, he averaged 12.3 PPG and racked up 159 yards and a couple of touchdowns. You know the Cal product by now: blink and you'll miss him getting open downfield. Jackson is a burner, deep threat, and one of the best definitions of boom/bust players weekly due to his type of game.
That doesn't mean you shouldn't draft him. He's played at least 10 games every season except the previous one, and the last time he missed more than six games was all the way back in 2015. He's a perennial 150-PPR yearly scorer living in the 10-to-12 PPG clip week to week. This wideout is a clear target in my draft-day sheet.
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