Is Matt McLain a Legitimate Five-Tool Phenom?

June 28, 2023

Tommy Bell takes a deeper look at Cincinnati Reds rookie middle infielder Matt McLain to see if this immediate fantasy success is something we can bank on long-term.

While Elly De La Cruz has deservedly garnered everyone's attention with his prodigious power and blazing speed, the Cincinnati Reds may have quietly unleashed another five-category stud into the fantasy baseball pool. No, we're not talking about the 29-year-old Kevin Newman.

In case you're late to the party, meet 23-year-old middle infielder Matt McLain! The 2021 first-round draft pick out of UCLA was called up by the Reds on May 15th and immediately slotted into the second spot in the lineup, spending most of his days at shortstop instead of Opening Day starter Kevin Newman. The result? Oh just a measly .903 OPS with 20 extra-base hits (five homers), four steals, and 30 runs in 38 games!

Clearly, Cincinnati is convinced that McLain can be their table-setter on offense right now, and perhaps he can develop into a staple for their franchise for years to come, but can we really expect him to be a five-category superstar in fantasy baseball? Let's dig a little deeper...

Minor League Track Record

To make a long story short, McClain seemed to have found his power stroke in Double-A Chattanooga, homering 17 times in 100 games in 2022. He showcased his speed during that span, too, swiping 27 bags, but the batting average was worrisome at just .232 despite a strong .363 OBP comparatively.

The homers and steals followed the middle infielder in his promotion to Triple-A Louisville earlier this year, but something must have clicked in the winter because McLain torched pitchers to the tune of a .348/.474/.710 slash line in 38 games. Tack on his 12 homers and 10 steals, and there's just no way you can keep those statistics in the farm system when Newman is getting everyday at-bats at the MLB level. The only real concern that could be questioned at that point was an abnormally high strikeout rate for a middle infielder, but you don't know how it looks until you try it on!

*Courtesy of MLB.com*

The Call-Up

While the strikeouts began to pile up in bunches right out of the gate, so did the hits. And because the hits were coming from the two-hole, the runs followed, which is exactly what Cincy was hoping to see from their new infielder.

McLain recorded a hit in 12 of his 14 May starts, and seven of those were multi-hit efforts. The slugging took some time to show up, but there was no doubt that McLain could keep up with Major League arms, and his defense played just fine.

Where Does He Play Long-Term?

The Reds continue to move both De La Cruz and McLain around the infield, mainly the left side. While it does seem like, from McLain's history at all levels and from his lack of "wow" factor on defense (13 errors in Double-A, and 7 errors in Triple-A), that he could eventually wind up playing somewhere other than shortstop, Cincy appears comfortable with the youngster roaming the left side of the infield intermittently (just one error in 29 starts at shortstop thus far). De La Cruz has yet to make an error at either position (SS/3B), so it seems really like a formality more than anything for Manager David Bell at the moment.

In the future, if the Reds were to decide that De La Cruz is THE defensive stud for their shortstop position, I could very well see McLain shifting to third base simply based on his above-average arm strength and Jonathan India's comfort at second base, but there are certainly options aplenty. His versatility should be an asset for the Reds so long as he keeps hitting.

Short-Term Impact (Redraft)

In terms of a 2023 fantasy outlook, specifically Roto leagues, we have to firmly place McLain in the starting shortstop conversation (top-12) until he shows us otherwise. There are simply not enough middle infielders in the game right now who we can optimistically (but reasonably) project for 20 homers, 20 steals, and 90 runs with a .300 batting average.

In points-based leagues, McLain takes a hit due to his 27.3% strikeout rate compared to a below-average 6.3% walk rate. And things look worse if we assume this .426 BABIP regresses back towards .350. That being said, McLain's balanced approach to all fields, 32.7% hard-hit rate compared to a minuscule 14.2% soft-hit rate, and a gorgeous 24.1% line drive rate are the right ingredients for a high BABIP. Certainly, some drop-off is coming, but I would be hesitant to project much lower than .295 based on these underlying numbers thus far.

In other words, I would sell McLain (especially in points leagues) for a proven .300 hitter with 25-homer pop or a reliable starting pitcher with strikeout upside if you need something different than what he provides, but in no way am I encouraging you to go out and sell him to the first buyer who's interested.

Long-Term Impact (Dynasty)

If there's one thing we can say for sure about McLain long-term, it's that he has the ability to keep improving. He showed us that with his huge batting average gains over this past calendar year, and the Reds are a ball club that will aggressively get the most out of him on the bases when possible.

I don't think we can safely say that McLain is a 25 HR/30 SB/110 Runs guy somewhere down the road, but I certainly see the potential for it, especially if he can stay in the top 3 of this young, talented lineup. We need to see the batting average stay around .300 with at least four homers in July, and then I'll be more comfortable anointing McLain as a five-tool player that the Reds should build around for years to come. And if that happens, then yes, the 23-year-old is a Roto dream who should continue to have positional versatility to boot.

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