Matt Corral NFL Rookie Profile - Fantasy Football Quarterback Outlook

June 24, 2022

Ole Miss QB Matt Corral was selected by the Carolina Panthers in the 2022 NFL Draft. Justin Carter evaluates Corral's fantasy football value at quarterback in his rookie season and beyond.

With the 2022 NFL Draft in the rearview mirror, it's time to think about how various rookies are going to fit with their new teams.

The Panthers used the 94th pick in the 2022 NFL Draft on Ole Miss quarterback Matt Corral, making him the fourth quarterback drafted.

Corral joins a team whose incumbent starter is Sam Darnold, which means he theoretically could find himself playing in 2022. Will he? And if he does, what can we expect to see from the rookie?

Matt Corral College Production

Matt Corral had two strong seasons at Ole Miss.

In 2020, he completed 70.9% of his passes for 3,337 yards and 29 touchdowns, though his numbers were sullied by his 14 interceptions. He ran for 506 yards and four scores.

2021 was when Corral really bloomed. He completed 67.9% of his passes for 3,349 yards and threw 20 touchdowns (nine fewer than the previous year). His interceptions dropped sharply though, as he threw just five of them, and he showed growth as a runner with 614 yards and 11 touchdowns.

Corral's career completion percentage of 67.3% ranks third all-time among SEC quarterbacks. He's eighth all-time in the SEC in passing yards per attempt and seventh all-time in the conference in total yards per play. Some historic numbers put up against a conference that's known for its defense.

Matt Corral's Measurables

We don't really know a ton about Corral's measurables.

Per MockDraftable, we know he ranks in the 53rd percentile in hand size, which is good enough. We know his wingspan and arm length are below average. But, uhh...this chart isn't telling us much:

But other than that, we don't have a lot here. Corral injured his ankle in the Sugar Bowl and wasn't ready for the combine, so we don't have a 40-time to look at or a vertical or any of the drills we get from prospects. We really have to go off of the stats and the game tape when evaluating Corral.

Corral's Strengths and Weaknesses

Let's start with the good things about Corral: he's a good athlete with a good arm, two things that are very important for an NFL quarterback.

Look at his ability to buy time with his feet when the pocket collapses then throw the ball accurately across his body. That's a big-time throw from Corral against one of college football's best defenses.

And then look what Corral can do when he actually has a pocket develop:

His offensive line gives him all day on this throw and he responds by stepping up and delivering this pass vertically down the field. Timed well. Placed well. Corral has the kind of arm that can make any throw he wants.

And he can also make plays with his feet:

Corral shows some great patience here after he avoids the sack. He waits until he's sure he can't throw this one and then hits the corner, rushing for the first down and more.

So, that's the good with Corral. He can move with the ball. He can get out and run when he needs to. He can throw a football extremely hard and extremely well.

This might leave you thinking "huh, then why was he picked so late?"

Good question! Because he definitely has concerns.

If you look back up at that graphic earlier in this piece, you'll see some of those concerns. Height and weight are potential issues with Corral. We've seen smaller-framed QBs succeed more lately, but his build is still worrisome. Can he hold up against NFL defenses, especially when he's such a physical runner? He's already had ankle issues in college; will those rear their head when he's getting hit by NFL-level defenders?

He also had fumble issues, with 23 of them over his Ole Miss career. Ball security is something that's pretty important for NFL quarterbacks, though you can also survive with a QB who fumbles if he does other things well. Dak Prescott led the NFL in fumbles last year, for instance.

His Fit With The Panthers

The Panthers have some weapons. Assuming Robby Anderson doesn't randomly retire, you've got him as your deep threat, D.J. Moore as your do-it-all receiver, Terrace Marshall Jr. to fill in the gaps, plus the league's best receiving running back in Christian McCaffrey. This is a team that just needs a quarterback in order to be a fascinating offense.

Problem: Sam Darnold is currently penciled in as the starter and there have been a lot of rumors about a Baker Mayfield trade, which is the kind of thing that a head coach who is desperate to keep his job might do as a band-aid move. And Matt Rhule should definitely be looking to make that kind of move if he wants to avoid getting fired after a poor start.

So, there's not really a clear path laid out for Corral to start. He could be successful if that path existed, but right now, Darnold probably starts for at least the first month or so, and that's only if the team doesn't make another move. I don't want to get ahead of myself on the Baker stuff, but there's been a ton of chatter about it, so it's at least worth being concerned about if you're a Corral fan.

Matt Corral Fantasy Football Outlook

If we were talking about dynasty right now, I could probably talk myself into Corral. I really liked him at Ole Miss. I thought he might be the best quarterback in this class.

But we're talking about redraft, and in redraft, there's really not a lot of upside when it comes to Corral. The best thing you can say for him is that if he winds up starting, I think he would have a positive impact on the fantasy value of the skill position players in Carolina, even if he himself might not put up great fantasy numbers.

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