Mark Canha and Eduardo Escobar to Mets - Fantasy Impact

December 14, 2021

Nick Ritrivi analyzes the impact of free agents Mark Canha and Eduardo Escobar joining the New York Mets for the 2022 season for fantasy baseball leagues.

The New York Mets have been major players in the free-agent market so far this offseason. Before the MLB lockout, they made two high-profile signings by acquiring starting pitcher Max Scherzer and outfielder Starling Marte. Not to be lost in the shuffle, the Mets also signed outfielder Mark Canha and infielder Eduardo Escobar.

The acquisitions of Canha and Escobar are a little more than “under-the-radar” signings. Though they don’t necessarily have the same star power as Scherzer or Marte, both players have the opportunity to be major contributors to the Mets in 2022.

Below we will examine the impact the move to New York will mean on both Canha and Escobar.

Reviewing 2021

In 2021, Canha posted a .231/.358/.387 slash line over 625 plate appearances with the A’s. He belted 17 home runs to go with 61 RBI, 93 runs scored, 22 doubles, 12 stolen bases, and a 115 wRC+. Despite a poor batting average, Canha was acquired by the Mets for his solid on-base percentage and plate discipline skillset.

Canha registered walk and chase rates that were both in the top 13% of MLB in 2021. The Mets will look for him to help jump-start an offense that struggled to score runs, get runners on base, and get timely hits in 2021. He will join former Oakland teammate Starling Marte and Brandon Nimmo in a Mets outfield that will be looked upon to table-set for an offense that was 27^th in runs scored in all of MLB in 2021.

Infielder Escobar bounced back in 2021 from an extremely poor, albeit shortened, 2020 season. In 2021, Escobar posted a .253/.314/.472 slash line, with 28 HR, 90 RBI, 77 runs scored, and 26 doubles between Arizona and Milwaukee. Escobar’s power numbers were supported by an exit velocity on FB/LD of 91.8 mph which was up from 90.3 mph in 2020 and 91.1 mph in his 35 HR 2019 campaign with the Diamondbacks. At this point, Escobar appears to be the Mets’ starting third baseman when the 2022 season opens. It is anticipated that, barring another move by the Mets, his bat will serve to replace Javier Baez who departed the Mets via free agency for the Detroit Tigers. While that may seem like a daunting task, since 2019, Escobar has posted a .254/.311/.470 slash line with 67 HR, 228 RBI, 62 doubles, and a 100 wRC+ over 1,520 plate appearances. By comparison and over that same period, Baez posted a similar .261/.303/.486 slash line with 68 HR, 196 RBI, 65 doubles, and 104 wRC+ over 1,343 plate appearances.  The gap between both players may not be as wide as believed, though Escobar will be 33-years old in 2022 and will be moving to a much less hitter-friendly park in Queens.

Looking Ahead to 2022

Assuming regular playing time for both of these players, the move to New York should not have a huge impact on Canha’s numbers in 2022. Just like Marte, Canha is moving from a poor hitters’ park in Oakland to a similarly pitcher-friendly CitiField. Additionally, the two lineups were virtually identical in 2021 when it came to batting average and OBP, providing Canha the same protection and RBI opportunities he saw in Oakland.

Of note, however, Canha will be positioned lower in the batting order with the Mets, as opposed to having been the A’s leadoff hitter for 105 games in 2021. This, combined with his age (33-years old when the 2022 campaign begins), will impact his run and stolen base production. As a result, Steamer projects Canha to post a  similar slash line of .233/.348/.403 with 18 HR and 63 RBI in 2022. Though his run totals are understandably projected to decline from 93 to 69, and his SB total is projected to slightly dip from 12 to eight.

While Steamer projections do not reflect this, Canha saw declines in his overall exit velocity (over two mph from 2020) and launch angle (down six degrees from 2020 and almost two degrees from 2019) in 2021, which could suggest some regression in his overall HR totals as well.

Steamer currently projects Escobar to post a .241/.301/.429 slash line to go with 22 HR, 74 RBI, and 63 runs scored. These projections are a slight decline from those posted in 2021 but reasonable given his age (33) and move to a much less hitter-friendly ballpark than American Family Field in Milwaukee and Chase Field in Arizona.

While one can also point to a poor hard-hit percentage and low average exit velocity in 2021 (both in the bottom 20% in all of MLB) for possible regression, Escobar has consistently registered low figures in these areas throughout his career and has been successful. His 2021 EV on FB/LD, as mentioned previously, was higher than when he hit 35 HR in 2019, and his overall launch angle in 2021 was 20.7 degrees, the highest of his career in 2021.

Timeshare Concerns

As it stands right now, the Mets still have Dominic Smith, Jeff McNeil, Luis Guillorme, and J.D. Davis, not to mention prospect Mark Vientos, on the 40-man roster.  The Mets have also been tied to discussions concerning Kris Bryant which would further muddy the Mets roster should they sign the All-Star. Given the need to bolster the starting pitching staff, it is likely that any or all of Smith, McNeil, and Davis will be moved in a trade ahead of the 2022 season.

If the Mets make no additional moves (unlikely), Canha should still be the regular right fielder with Nimmo moving to left field. Notably, however, Smith could see time in left field, moving Nimmo to right field at times, taking away some at-bats for Canha. Of course, if Smith is installed at designated hitter (should the universal DH be approved in a new MLB collective bargaining agreement), this concern is mitigated.

Credit: www.metsmerizedonline.com

As far as Escobar is concerned, it appears he will serve as the Mets regular third baseman, at least right now. While the possibility exists that Escobar could find himself in a timeshare at third base with Davis if Davis isn’t dealt, Escobar’s splits against righties and lefties in 2021 were about even (.295/.340/.537 slash line against lefties) making it likely he will jump over Davis on the depth chart. If the Mets pick up Bryant, then all bets are off. In that circumstance, Escobar would need both Davis and McNeil moved to clear a path to regular at-bats in the lineup at second base. Of course, regular playing time between second base and DH would remain a possibility for Escobar should the Mets move Smith (and the universal DH is implemented).

Fantasy Value In 2022

The 2022 fantasy values of both Canha and Escobar hinge on their getting regular playing time in New York.

If serving as the Mets regular left fielder, Canha will be a solid fourth outfielder in mixed league formats, and an even more attractive outfield option in OBP and/or NL-only formats. Managers should be aware of a likely decline in the run and stolen base totals when compared to 2021, given his age and likely lower position in the Mets batting order.  Notably, though, if Canha is forced to split time in some capacity, his fantasy value will take a huge hit.

Given the possibility of the Mets making another impact bat signing ahead of 2022, drafting Escobar around the 12^th round (current ADP of 242) is currently a risky proposition. If the Mets don’t pick up another infielder like Bryant, then is likely Escobar will serve as the starting third baseman, though he could still lose some playing time to Davis and eventually Vientos.

Fantasy managers should expect a slight decline in his power numbers from 2021 given his age and move to a less hitter-friendly ballpark, making him a solid corner infield or middle infield option in mixed league formats and a solid later 3B or 2B selection in NL-only formats. Should he, however, be thrown into a time-share and serve as a “Jonathan Villar type” utility bat, his value takes a big hit. In that instance, Escobar would serve as nothing more than a late-round flier in NL-only or deeper mixed league formats, requiring some type of injury to open up playing time for him.

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