Nick Mariano's 2023 Fantasy Baseball Third Base Rankings

March 17, 2023

2023 fantasy baseball tiered third base rankings and analysis for 5x5 roto mixed leagues, featuring ranks from RotoBaller's rankings expert Nick Mariano.

Welcome back, RotoBallers! We're moving along with my fantasy baseball rankings series as we head to the hot corner after hitting catcher, first base, and second base so far. Will you pay up for the top six or seven bats to solidify your standing, or wait for later options?

Some of you play with corner-infield slots, or maybe just an overall infielder, on top of the usual "3B" position. We've got you covered no matter the format! And in case you missed any, you can see the rest of the positional rankings articles here:

• Fantasy Baseball Catcher Rankings
• Fantasy Baseball First Base Rankings
• Fantasy Baseball Second Base Rankings
• Fantasy Baseball Shortstop Rankings
• Fantasy Baseball Saves+Holds Relief Pitcher Rankings

Bear with me this morning, as my basement is flooded so I'm writing this in between the shop vac and pump. Power still defines third base, but the premier options will give you speed and a healthy batting average to go with it. The top tiers bring serious pop and supply R+RBI by virtue of their cushy spot in the batting order. Once again, many players are eligible at more than third but the thin pool means you're likely deploying them there. Alrighty, how about we get into it with the tiered table and analysis below?

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Third Base Fantasy Baseball Rankings - Roto Leagues

Tier One - Third Base Rankings

Life is good at the hot corner’s peak. The top players can anchor your roster with all sorts of production and protect you from speculating on the other side of the cliff. Personally, I’m comfortable with several later picks and won’t force the issue, but I understand the market pushing them up.

Jose Ramirez was his usual incredible self up until the thumb injury. If you believe he’s 100% again then there’s little reason not to target him inside the top five. Bobby Witt Jr. supplies ample power-speed upside but there’s rookie risk and you sacrifice getting a batting average pillar early on. A potential 30/30 or 20/35 bat is worth it to me!

Manny Machado offers a bit of speed with strong contributions across the power and average categories and has started to go inside the first round in drafts. That’s hard to argue with when he was ranked eighth overall in Yahoo’s 5x5 scoring last season.

Tier Two - Third Base Rankings

We’re nitpicking but Rafael Devers is a slight step behind the others without reliable speed to offer. He was 13-of-26 on steal attempts between 2019-21 before going 3-of-4 in ‘22. Is that progress? Will he be more aggressive with the new rules? I won’t count on it. I’m more apt to count on Devers’ pre-ASB form where he hit .324 with 22 home runs in 86 games. This preceded the nagging hamstring injury that flowed into an awful second half (.712 OPS, 5 HR in 55 games).

Austin Riley is another huge bat without notable wheels, but he has played in 160 and 159 games in the last two seasons. Those hoping for another .303 batting average, as he produced in ‘21, were too reliant on a wild .368 BABIP replicating itself. His .315 mark in ‘22 yielded that .273 average that aligns with most 2023 projections. Devers should edge him in batting average, but I’d rather have Atlanta’s R+RBI opportunities. Mind your build.

Tier Three - Third Base Rankings

Arenado has quieted the Coors haters with back-to-back seasons of 30 or more home runs in his first two Cardinal campaigns. The 31-year-old has maintained a fly-ball rate close to 50%, which helps with the power but makes last season’s .293 average unlikely to repeat. His projections fall slightly behind Riley across the board, but he’s another beacon of durability at the hot corner and things start to get messy after he’s gone.

Alex Bregman didn’t have an outstanding ‘22 if you look at the entire year but was still ranked 63rd on the 5x5 year-end leaderboard. There was a great article by Sports Illustrated’s Stephanie Apstein about Bregman losing, and finding, his confidence and swing rhythm. He was flying open and couldn’t reset it.

They worked at it and he signals his swing game as July 5’s three-hit contest against Kansas City. In his final 79 regular-season games, Bregman would slash .280/.376/.507 with 36 XBH (14 HRs) and 105 R+RBI, logging 42 walks against 33 strikeouts. The gap between Arenado and Bregman is too wide in most draft lobbies.

Tier Four - Third Base Rankings

Gunnar Henderson is the most polarizing player at third but the fact is, you either believe he immediately makes good on his incredible tools or you don’t. I fall into the latter’s camp as I think the 21-year-old (!) will battle Camden’s dimensions and MLB pitching to a good-not-great statline. One can easily poke holes in projection systems accounting for rookie performance, so most will see what they want to see here. I see a talented youngster who should supply 25-30 HR+SB with a .250 average. I can find this later.

Tier Five - Third Base Rankings

Ke'Bryan Hayes kept his 2022 season afloat with 20 swipes as only seven longballs and a .244 average killed the vibes. It’s reasonable to connect the diminished power to back and shoulder injuries, so I’m circling him on my sheets and giving him another chance. Even 12-15 home runs next to 20-plus steals amidst the new rules will provide plenty of profits at ADP. Josh Rojas has the same mold, albeit with lesser confidence.

Eugenio Suarez and Matt Chapman are known power sources, while many hope Alec Bohm can grow into some of that. Ryan McMahon is a Coors juggling act that can hurt you in road weeks and win you the homestands. But I know why you’re here. Why you’re reading this article.

Jordan Walker! There, I said it. The SEO gods are satiated. Alright, fine. Yes, the big spring breakout is 16-for-41 (.390) with three home runs and a steal through March 16. He hasn’t drawn a walk yet, but we know he’s got a strong eye (10.8% BB rate over 536 Double-A PAs in ‘22).

The 20-year-old could crack the starting lineup with his blossoming power and plus speed. Whether he’ll be stuck in a rotation with the likes of Juan Yepez, Dylan Carlson, etc. is another story, but you’re drafting for the upside here. Just have a backup plan.

Is Josh Jung a post-hype sleeper? Many are saying so. The 25-year-old admitted he was pressing and had iffy timing following the long layoff due to a torn labrum. That is to say, don’t look at the gaudy 38.2% strikeout rate from a small 26-game September sample and draw conclusions. More real were the five home runs he bashed. He can hit around .260-.270 with 25-homer pop in a potent Texas order.

A healthy Anthony Rendon and/or Justin Turner should maintain your batting average while providing steady RBI opportunities from the heart of their orders. Leaning on Rendon when he’s been out or bad between 2021-22 can feel gross but the wrist looks OK so far. He’s 6-for-14 with two home runs through limited spring duty as of March 16.

Is he more reliable than Turner, who is six years older? The man who recently took a pitch to the face this spring, though he didn’t suffer any fractures. Not to diminish 16 stitches, but he avoided the worst. I’d gotten a lot of Turner after pick 250 in early drafts because right-handed hitters in Fenway is a magnet to me. If you need some average assistance and a corner-infield man then don’t be shy.

Tier Six and Below - Third Base Rankings

Here’s where I’m starting to throw at players who we’ll hope to know early on if they’ve got it in 2023 or not. Can Yoan Moncada rebound to the promise shown in 2019? Who wins the battle between Eduardo Escobar and Brett Baty for primary playing time on the Mets? Or is it a headache-inducing split through April? How often will the Yankees play DJ LeMahieu given his foot woes and lack of mobility without the overshift? Perhaps you feel Patrick Wisdom overtakes Christopher Morel for more work?

But my favorite dart of all has been Mr. Spencer Steer of the Cincinnati Reds. He’s going very late in drafts, usually well after pick 300, but an everyday job at Great American Ballpark in 2023 is worth a speculation spot on the bench. Don’t scoff at the .211/.306/.326 slash from a measly 28-game sample in ‘22.

Okay, you can scoff. But the 25-year-old did hit 15 home runs in just 71 Triple-A games between Minnesota and Cincy last year. GABP can pump that up to 18-20. You know, the venue with a league-leading Statcast HR Park Factor of 145 for righties. That’s 45% more longballs observed there compared to performance elsewhere. And if he stinks early on then move along! Maybe you’ll swap him for Christian Encarnacion-Strand!

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