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Starting pitcher Luis Castillo was dealt from the Reds to the Mariners ahead of the 2022 MLB trade deadline. Mark Kieffer breaks down the fantasy baseball impact of the move.
Luis Castillo was traded from the Cincinnati Reds to the Seattle Mariners in exchange for four prospects: SS Noevli Marte, SS Edwin Arroyo, RHP Levi Stoudt, and RHP Andrew Moore.
This was the first big trade prior to the trade deadline and people want to know what the fantasy impact is for Luis Castillo moving to Seattle and also what the fantasy impact is on the prospects moving over to Cincinnati.
We'll break down that deal below as the RotoBaller team keeps you updated on all the breaking news and MLB trades as they go down.
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Luis Castillo To Seattle
Luis Castillo was having a good season by anyone's standards: 2.86 ERA, 3.39 xFIP, a 25.8% strikeout rate, an 8.0% walk rate, and a 1.07 WHIP. Overall, he has produced like a top-40 starting pitcher, which is due to the fact he missed the first month of the season. Looking at the individual stats, the 2.86 ERA would be tied for 18th-best in the league among qualified pitchers. The 25.8% strikeout rate is 14th-best among qualified pitchers, and the 1.07 WHIP is 19th among qualified pitchers.
What is dragging Castillo's value down are wins. In 14 starts, he has four wins and four losses along with six no-decisions. If playing in a Quality Start league, it is much better in that 10 of Castillo's 14 starts have been quality starts.
Moving to Seattle should boost Castillo's chances of wins in theory. The Mariners are 55-48 as opposed to 40-61. They win more so that should translate to pitching wins, right?
Cincinnati actually averages more runs per game (4.4 runs per game) than Seattle does (4.04 runs per game). In three of Castillo's starts in July, he allowed exactly one run and got three no decisions due to lack of run support. In Castillo's four losses, he allowed three runs, two runs, three runs, and one run. Run support is difficult to project out but going to a worse offense is a little bit of a concern.
Logan Gilbert, Chris Flexen, and Marco Gonzales are 13th, 16th, and 17th in the AL in run support per nine innings pitched. If Castillo gets run support in those guys' ranges, he should get more wins. If not, then he could see some of the same.
The jury is out on the impact on wins for Castillo as wins for pitchers are hard to project overall.
The other key is moving ballparks. According to Baseball Savant, Great American Ballpark has as high of a park factor as Coors Field, while T-Mobile Park has the lowest park factor. Moving from the best run-scoring environment to the worst is pretty impactful. But Castillo won't just pitch in Seattle, he has to pitch on the road as well to his division rivals too. How do those look?
From a run-scoring perspective, here are the ranks of the stadiums in each of the divisions:
NL Central: Great American Ballpark (No. 1), PNC Park (No. 13), American Family Field (No. 14), Wrigley Field (No. 17), and Busch Stadium (No. 27).
AL West: Angel Stadium (No. 4), Minute Maid Park (No. 20), Globe Life Field (No. 21), Oakland Coliseum (No. 28), and T-Mobile Park (No. 30).
As far as run-scoring environments go, there is a big shift here.
From a strikeouts perspective, the ranks of the stadiums in each of the divisions:
NL Central: Wrigley Field (No. 3), Great American Ballpark (No. 4), American Family Field (No. 11), Busch Stadium (No. 26), PNC Park (No. 27)
AL West: Minute Maid Park (No. 7), T-Mobile Park (No. 9), Globe Life Field (No. 16), Oakland Coliseum (No. 17), Angel Stadium (No. 20)
Castillo moves away from pitching in two top-five stadiums for strikeouts on a regular basis to two stadiums outside the top-five but inside the top-10. On the plus side, the worst stadium he will pitch regularly in from a strikeouts perspective is Angel Stadium at No. 20. I would expect his strikeout numbers to stay the same or even slightly improve from this trade.
Overall, the move from Cincinnati to Seattle will have a neutral or small positive effect on his overall fantasy value. We are hoping that moving to a better team means more wins, but it's a lower-scoring offense in general. He should still be striking out players at a similar rate as before the trade as well. He remains a solid fantasy SP2/SP3 depending on league size going forward.
What About Those Prospects?
Here is a quick breakdown of the prospects and what kind of fantasy impact they could make:
Noelvi Marte: He is the 17th-best prospect overall, according to the MLB's prospect rankings. He is expected to make his major league debut in 2023, but the highest level he has reached in the minors is High-A. Do not be surprised if he does not make his debut until later on, as I am sure Cincinnati would want to see him perform in Double-A and Triple-A before moving him up. He has a .363 OBP, 15 HRs, and 13 SBs in 394 plate appearances this season. He had 30 errors in Rookie Ball in 2019, 30 in Low-A and High-A combined in 2021, and 24 so far this year. He may play a different position due to the fact you can't have a large number of errors from your starting shortstop.
Edwin Arroyo: He is the 92nd ranked prospect on MLB's prospect rankings. Just 18-years-old and was drafted in the second round last year. He has a .385 OBP, 13 HRs, and 21 SBs in 410 plate appearances in Single-A this year. He has cut his strikeout rate down from 30.2% to 22% between 2021 and 2022. He is due for a promotion but is not expected to make his major league debut until 2025. He very well could be the shortstop of the future for the Reds.
Levi Stoudt: He has a 5.28 ERA and 4.75 xFIP in 18 games started in Double-A this year. He is 24-years-old and some were hoping he'd make the jump to the majors this year. He has just a 22% strikeout rate this year but cut his walk rate from 10.8% to 5.9%. Most experts believe he is a low upside play with the potential of being a No. 4 or No. 5 starter. In fantasy baseball, we do not roster many back-end rotation guys, so he may not have much fantasy relevance.
Andrew Moore: He has pitched out of the bullpen in Single-A both in 2021 and 2022. He has a 43.6% strikeout rate, a 1.95 ERA, and a 2.66 xFIP. Bullpen arms aren't of much value unless they are going to pitch over 100 innings or they are going to get saves. With his ETA not until 2025, it's difficult to know. He is not a high-rated prospect overall and any fantasy value would be situational.
Overall of the four prospects, Marte and Arroyo have the best chance at having fantasy relevance with Marte having the most upside at this point. Both are worth a look in Dynasty Leagues. The two pitchers may not make much fantasy impact at all, but that remains to be seen.
Final Thoughts
Luis Castillo has had a great season despite missing a month. He was drafted before the season started on average as the 30th starting pitcher off the board and is performing like a top-30 starting pitcher when healthy. Pitching in Seattle and the AL West is a good thing.
For the Reds, Noelvi Marte becomes the best prospect in their system and could be a significant bat in the future. Edwin Arroyo becomes their sixth-best prospect and could be the SS of the future as his defense is better than Marte's. Also, you'd figure the Reds would want both guys to play when they are ready. Marte, we may see next year in the majors while Arroyo may not be until 2024 or 2025.
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