Low-Usage Running Backs Bound For A Explosion

October 11, 2020

Antonio Losada analyzes the performance levels of five players through Week 4 on a snap-level basis, trying to find potential breakout candidates worth targeting in trades or as WW additions.

If you're not familiar with Expected Points (EP), here's a quick definition per RotoViz: EP are the number of fantasy points that a target or carry should score based on game situation (down, distance, and field position, based on similar past plays). They transform raw opportunities (carries and targets) directly into fantasy points. As we know what players actually did on the field, we can calculate how they performed with their opportunities and get their Fantasy Points Over Expectation (FPOE). FPOE accounts for both yards and touchdowns in a single, catch-all number.

Adding EP (opportunity) and FPOE (efficiency) together, we arrive at the player's actual fantasy-point outcome.

Today, I'm taking a look at some running backs that are currently being underutilized by their teams (that doesn't mean they should be giving them more opportunities, though), and exploring both the EP and FPOE they are being given and generating, trying to spot potential breakdowns bound to happen during the next few weeks. Let's go analyze!

Running Backs Bound For A Explosion

To write this article I have fetched all data from the first four weeks of the 2020 season, including the last TNF game between Chicago and Tampa Bay. After I got all of those season-stats, I filtered them in order to find interesting players that:

1. Have not played a super-low volume of snaps through the first four weeks of the season, combined (so we get rid of injured players, players with just a few snaps on a single game, etc.)
2. Are not logging a lot of snaps per game (player on secondary or tertiary roles, not heavily used)
3. Rostered in at least one of 20 Yahoo! leagues (avoiding mostly-irrelevant fantasy players)

Even without applying a positional filter, you can clearly see how running backs populate the chart above. All of them except one (WR Cordarrelle Patterson) are tailbacks, and even Patterson can be considered a rusher as he's used as an RB/WR hybrid by the Bears.

All of the players within the applied filters have also featured on snaps that were expected to generate 0.21+ EP each. Just for context, every fantasy player generating 0.2+ EP (including those heavily used and with high snaps per game amounts) is generating 11+ PPR points and the whole group is averaging 17+ PPR points per game. In other words, give the players above more snaps and opportunities, and they will most probably thrive.

Let's break down some names with the potential to break out during the next few weeks if they find a way to get more reps.

Cordarrelle Patterson (CHI) - 7% Rostered

Patterson entered the waiver wire conversation a couple of games ago when Tarik Cohen fell injured and was lost for the season. His usage hasn't changed a lot, truth be told, but he should see more opportunities as the season advances if Chicago doesn't add any player to its backfield.

While the snaps have been limited (10, 14, 11, 11, and 15), the EP that Cordarrelle has been given have been the most among the players highlighted above. The problem with Patterson, and his potential breakout, is that he has played way below expectations with a negative -0.16 FPOE per snap this season, which means he's generating 0.42 PPR points per snap instead of his expected 0.59.

Don't get that wrong, though. Those 0.42 rank as the third-highest mark among the players above even widely underperforming. If Patterson keeps getting opportunities as valuable as those he's seen so far through his five games, odds are he positive regresses and puts even more PPR points on the board weekly.

Alexander Mattison (MIN) - 37% Rostered

Alexander Mattison (along with Tony Pollard) was one of the top rushers targeted by fantasy GMs to attach to their RB1 counterparts (Dalvin Cook and Ezekiel Elliott). This has stayed the same for the 2020 season, and in Mattison's case, the rostership has even gone higher than expected sitting at 37% in Yahoo! leagues at the time of this writing.

Obviously, Mattison's upside is entirely tied to Cook's health. As long as the RB1 of the Vikings keeps healthy and is able to play, Mattison won't put up big fantasy points. That being said, though, his average EP per game have gone up from last season and he's playing more snaps per game given his efficiency. Mattison is averaging 0.04 FPOE points per snap, and an average 0.41 PPR points each play he's on the field. That average ranks fourth-highest among the players in the chart above only behind Fournette, Michel, and Patterson.

Mattison shouldn't be a starter in any shallow league, but if you're part of a deeper (16+ teams) league, definitely consider Mattison a weekly starter at your FLEX position as one of the best RB2 in the league.

Mark Ingram II (BAL) - 94% Rostered

Ingram is, simply put, stuck in backfield-hell. The Ravens are deploying a three-headed backfield these days playing all three of Ingram, Gus Edwards, and J.K. Dobbins between 17 and 22 snaps per game. None of the three rushers has topped 88 snaps through Week 4, and Edwards has the fewest at 70. The share is absolutely balanced, which kills the upside of the three.

While Ingram is probably past his heyday and peak-years, he's still a very valuable player, and the moment either Edwards or Dobbins goes down injured (if that happens) he will get that RB1 role probably all by himself as he's the player with most rushing attempts in that backfield at this point and is just two targets short of Dobbins' (5 to 7).

His rostership percentage tells you all you need to know. At a massive 94%, it is going to be hard to get Ingram, but if you should target him in trades as a secondary piece to add in a bigger deal. Ingram is only one of five players in the chart above averaging more than 0.4 PPR points per snap, and one of six overperforming the expectations by at least 0.05 PPR points per snap.

Brian Hill (ATL) - 21% Rostered

The Falcons signed Todd Gurley II this past offseason bringing him back home to Georgia. So far, though, Gurley has more than disappointed by averaging just 13.6 PPR points per game and 54.3 total through four weeks in 157 snaps (fourth-most among teammates). That averages to 0.34 PPR points per snap. RB2 Brian Hill, on half his usage (75 snaps) is generating more PPR per snap at 0.37, overperforming the expectations by 0.05 FPOE per snap, and having a heavier role on the passing game (9 targets to Gurley's 8; 54 receiving yards to Gurley's 9).

It is going to be virtually impossible to see Atlanta drop Gurley from RB1 duties after acquiring him not long ago and making him one of the staples of the offense. His pedigree won't just allow them to do that. But what are the Falcons going to do going forward if they keep losing? For one, pass the ball (advantage Hill). For two, potentially trade their win-now assets (that is, QB Matt Ryan or RB Todd Gurley if there is interest).

Although his usage is still low, Hill's 75 snaps rank as the second-most among the players in the group above, only bested by Ingram's 80, but his 0.37 PPR per snap rank 7th and he's one of only five players with 0.33+ EP/Snap and 0.05+ FPOE/Snap. Make Hill one of your WW targets to acquire next week, and a good FLEX option in deeper leagues with upside to score TDs here and there given his usage near the goal line.

Leonard Fournette (TB) - 81% Rostered

After losing time due to injuries earlier in his career, Fournette proved to be healthy and good last season playing 15 games without any problem. He's missed time in 2020 already, but it doesn't look like too much of a big deal. What is more worrying is the fact that Tampa Bay signed Lenny and then put him in a backfield comprised of LeSean McCoy, Ke'Shawn Vaughn, and Ronald Jones II. That makes it four players for one position. Ugh.

Fournette has only been on the field for 61 plays (18%) while Jones leads all running backs with a 55% snap share (virtually three times as high). On low usage, though, Fournette is averaging 8.7 PPR points per game to Jones' 12.9, but considering the number of snaps played by each of them, Fournette outperforms Jones with an average of 0.57 PPR/Snap against just 0.35 by Jones. That means Fournette is getting 0.12+ PPR points each time he's on the field, and on a similar usage (187 snaps over 5 games) he'd be averaging 21+ PPR per game compared to Jones' 12.9...

I'm a Fournette stan, not going to lie over that. I believe he will end overtaking Jones in the pecking order and taking on the weekly RB1 role for the Bucs. Thanks to his middling start to the season, though, you might still be able to get Fournette for cheap in a trade. Don't forget to check the WW just in case you still find him there, but chances are low at that. Must-add/trade-target in deeper leagues, interesting stash in shallower ones in case Jones falls injured or gets demoted to RB2 in Tampa's offense.

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