Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco to Mets - Fantasy Impact

The MLB Hot Stove has been far too quiet this offseason, outside of the Padres’ couple of days of fun, but the Mets helped heat things up on Thursday trading for Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco. Rumors of the Indians shopping Lindor had been discussed for quite some time, and the Mets have been potential suitors, but Thursday's trade also involving Carlos Carrasco was quite a surprise.

The total trade involved six players featuring Lindor and Carrasco joining the Mets while Amed Rosario, Andres Gimenez, Josh Wolf, and Isaiah Greene join the Indians. The Mets are taking on some money as Lindor will make $17M-$21.5M through arbitration and Carrasco’s $27M for the next two seasons. 

The Mets and new owner Steve Cohen are not messing around this offseason as they have signed James McCann, Trevor May, Marcus Stroman, who have now traded for Lindor and Carrasco. Cohen and Company are still rumored to be looking to spend another $20-$25M as well. From a real-life perspective, the Mets are all of a sudden legit contenders in the NL East, but let’s look at the fantasy impact of Thursday’s big trade between the Mets and the Indians. 

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Lindor to the Big Apple

2020 was not a typical “Lindor Season” when it came to his overall stat line. He had career worsts in average (.258), slugging (.415), wOBA (.324), and wRC+ (100). The 100 wRC+ says Lindor was league average, and we all know that he is far from league average when he is playing at his full capability. So what went wrong?

The simple answer was: not much. When digging deeper, Lindor had a similar hard-hit rate of (41%) to previous seasons, his contact rates were relatively the same (a small drop in chase contact), and his walk rate went up to 9%. It may be a little tweak, but his barrel rate dropped to 5.6% compared to his usual 7-9%, while his stable contact rate rose to 9.1% after a 4.7% regular rate in 2019. As Rotoballer's own Mike Kurland even tweeted, a full 2020 may have looked like a regular "Lindor Season."

If Lindor gets back to his standard barrel ways, there is a great chance we see the Lindor we are used to in 2021. What about the move to Citi Field, which would likely concern many? The 2020 park factors show Citi Field as the 17th-most hitter-friendly ballpark (basically neutral), while Progressive Field in Cleveland was the eighth-most hitter-friendly ballpark. Most see that and immediately think this is not good for Lindor, but there could be some fantasy goodness when we dig deeper.

While Progressive Field was a great ballpark for doubles, triples, and overall hits, Citi Field was much better in home runs. When looking specifically at right field home runs, where Lindor hits most of his home runs, we can use Max Freeze’s HRPF+ to RF, and CLE rated at 112 while NYM at 105, so pretty close overall. When it comes to fantasy and Lindor likely hitting in the middle of the Mets order, we want the home runs. Here is an example of all of Lindor’s balls in play in 2020 and the results in Citi Field

The other significant shift besides the ballpark for Lindor is the shift from American League to National League and the shift from the AL Central to the NL East. The AL Central has a few strong arms, but the majority of those arms were teammates of Lindor, so that move does not mean much to me heading into 2021.

Moving to the NL East is pretty significant in terms of the opponent's pitchers. He enters a new division with the Marlins and their young arms, the Braves and their revamped rotation, the Nationals who still have their Big 3, and the Phillies who have a couple of studs in Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler. It may be a bit tougher entering the intensely competitive NL East.

Lastly, how does this affect the Mets lineup? The lineup is sneaky good heading into 2021.

image from RosterResource

Lindor is projected to hit third for the Mets and should have plenty of RBI chances with Brandon Nimmo and Jeff McNeil hitting in front of him. Behind Lindor would be Michael Conforto, Big Pete Alonso, Dominic Smith off a career season, J.D. Davis, and new Met James McCann. This lineup is no joke and is not the struggling Mets offense we have seen in recent seasons. There should be plenty of chances for RBI, runs, and even stolen bases in 2021 for Lindor. Steamer has him projected for .277-33-102-92-19, and that would be pretty awesome at his current NFBC Draft Champions ADP of 16 overall. 

Carrasco Completes the Three-Headed Rotation Monster

The Mets adding Carrasco to the trade was the shocker of shocks and maybe the more critical trade for fantasy. The 11-year veteran leaves a Cleveland team in rebuild mode and heads to a team in the Mets that are going for it all under new ownership. 

Carrasco is coming off a 2020 season where he returned to ace-like form after missing part of 2019 battling Leukemia. He was back and healthy in 2020, making 12 starts with a 2.91 ERA, 3.65 xFIP, and a 29.3% strikeout rate. Carrasco did see his walk rate rise to 9.6%, which correlated with a drop in the chase rate and chase contact.

Carrasco brings a five-pitch arsenal to New York but mainly focuses on three pitches: his four-seam fastball, slider, and changeup. These three pitches were filthy in 2020 as they all had CSW rates over 30%, and all had putaway rates over 50%. By far, the slider is his best pitch, as it had a dERA of 1.33, a barrel FIP of 2.85, and a strikeout rate of 37.1%. The changeup also has a 28.7% deserved K-rate, a 5.3% barrel rate, and a really nice 53.2% groundball rate, which helps Carrasco with his yearly low home runs rates. If he continues to utilize these three pitches and uses the slider or changeup more, he can continue to dominate. Steamer believes he can continue to dominate with 174 innings, a 3.66 ERA, and a 27.2% strikeout rate. 

He will join a Mets rotation as the likely number two between Jacob deGrom and Marcus Stroman. Rounding out the rotation, for now, appears to be David Peterson and Steven Matz, but Noah Syndergaard should be ready early in the season to hopefully form a fearsome foursome for the Mets. 

Overall Fantasy Impact

Both Lindor and Carrasco going to the Mets is a much bigger real-life trade than a fantasy impact trade. Lindor is still going to be an absolute stud, and if his second-half improvements in 2020 carryover, then watch out. If he stays healthy, Carrasco should continue to be a strong SP3 or, depending on the draft strategy, SP2 for a fantasy team. The strikeout rate should continue to stay high for Carrasco, especially if the NL does not have the DH in 2021, and there should also be more run supports when looking at the 2021 Mets versus the 2021 Indians rosters. 

Quick Notes for the Indians

Andres Gimenez should start every day for the Indians at shortstop or second base. He is a plus defender, and if he continues to improve at the plate could be a sneaky run producer with significant steals upside. He has 2B/3B/SS eligibility for the 2021 season and has an ADP around 180. His draft price should continue to rise with the guaranteed role, and he will be a total risk/roster needs pick at that point in the draft.

Amed Rosario took a step back in 2020, but Steamer is a believer as they have him with a stat line of .281-14-66-64-15. He should play every day for the Indians; it depends on where to help with multi-position eligibility. He is only 25, so there is still time for improvement, and with an ADP of 343, he should be heavily considered late in drafts.

Josh Wolf is a young right-handed pitcher that has not pitched above rookie ball. He was a second-round pick in 2019 with a mid-90’s fastball and a couple of excellent offspeed pitches. Time will tell.

Isaiah Greene was a second-round pick in 2020, and we have not seen him play since he was drafted. He is in centerfield now, but all reports expect him to settle into a corner outfield role. He is a solid average bat with some pop, but still only 20 years old, so time will tell. 

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