X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Recent Velocity Decliners - Arms To Abandon

Jon Anderson identifies starting pitchers whose pitch velocity is declining late in the 2021 season. These SP can be dropped or benched in fantasy baseball leagues.

We are about to turn the calendar to September, which means that a lot of the league's starting pitchers have gone through a five-month slog putting a ton of work on their throwing arms. This was possibly even a tougher challenge in 2021 after the shortened 2020 season severely reduced the requested workloads that these pitchers had.

If you're still reading this right now, you are probably headed for the fantasy baseball playoffs. That means every week from here on out will be the most important week of the year. We want to look for any advantage we can find.

In this piece, I looked at every pitcher's fastball velocity month-by-month to try to pick up on the guys that have been losing (and gaining) velocity as of late. Let's highlight some names.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Freddy Peralta, Milwaukee Brewers

We'll knock this one off the list quickly because this is what we would call a "known issue." Prior to this month, Peralta's four-seam fastball averaged right around 93.5 miles per hour. During his first start in August, he threw the pitch at 94.4 miles per hour on average - no problems there. Last time out, however, that pitch came down to 92.2 miles per hour. The righty left that start after just 43 pitches thrown and hit the IL the next day - clearly, there's an injury affecting him here.

He is currently ramping back up to rejoin the rotation soon, so there's a good chance he will pitch for your fantasy team in the playoffs. If the Brewers management thinks he's healthy, then I'm fine with just plugging him right back in the lineup when he returns - but it will definitely be pertinent to check on that fastball velocity when he does return.

 

Shane McClanahan, Tampa Bay Rays

The young names are sure to sting a little bit more when they show up on this list, and that's true with the young Rays' lefty here. McClanahan has been electric this year, posting some really solid numbers and flashing triple-digits on the radar gun. However, in August, he has lost significant fastball velocity:

The first thing your mind goes to is innings count. This guy threw exactly zero professional innings in 2020, and prior to that his career-high in a single year is 120.2 (2019). He has thrown 94.1 innings this year, so he is fast approaching that mark. Not only is the average velocity down, but his maximum values have also been down substantially as well. He hasn't touched 100 miles per hour since June 20th and hasn't touched 99 since July 20th.

The good news is that the results have been fine. His swinging-strike rates have remained pretty steady with the four-seamer, and they've remained really strong overall (meaning looking at all pitch types). His slider is still an elite weapon, and averaging 95 miles per hour is more than enough to be successful with.

I would be lying if I said I don't think there's any reason for concern because the Rays have asked for a lot from this guy and this is a serious drop in velocity. You're not going to want to give up McClanahan in a dynasty format, but in a re-draft league, it might be a pretty nice time to see what you can get from him.

 

Casey Mize, Detroit Tigers

In his first start of the year, Mize opened some eyes by touching 97.9 miles per hour on his four-seamer. That made a lot of fantasy managers excited to give him another shot after he was really disappointing in his short 2020 stint. The velocity has not remained that high, however, here's the plot.

I would imagine the high velocity in April was just a result of some early season jitters and excitement, and then he calmed it down and settled into the 94 miles per hour range in the middle months. However, in August that has come down below 93 now - not a great situation.

In his four August starts, he's averaged 93.9, 92.3, 92.6, and 92.5 on his fastball (chronologically). He has also seen diminishing swinging-strike rates to boot:

Mize hasn't been a guy to feel great about relying on at any point this year, but I would certainly not be wanting to put many chips on him as the 2021 season wraps up.

 

Yusei Kikuchi, Seattle Mariners

It was a really fun time to roster Kikuchi through May and June. He posted a strong 3.38 ERA and a .183 opponent's batting average in May, and then was really great in June with a 1.90 ERA and a .181 batting average against. Things went awry in July with marks of 6.11 and .302, and August didn't start off well either as he sat with marks of 5.50 and .293 before his start on August 26th (I wrote this before that start).

Some of this reduced performance may have to do with the velocity, which has been down since June.

He is not a guy that really relies on his four-seamer as much as some of the other guys on the list, with his cutter being his most-used pitch and also throwing a lot of sliders and some changeups. Velocity isn't as important on the cutter, but it's down a little bit too. More positive news in all of this is that his ground-ball rates have stayed high, which is really where he generates most of his success from. He has also went through a brutal July and August schedule, which could also be playing into the numbers.

I'm not giving up on Kikuchi yet, but any time you see the ERA climb while the velocity dips you have to be a little bit less confident.

 

Robbie Ray, Toronto Blue Jays

I'll make this quick. Robbie Ray has lost a mile per hour on his fastball velocity, but it hasn't mattered whatsoever. He did have two somewhat non-elite starts at the beginning of the month, striking out just 9 batters over 12 innings, but he only gave up two runs in those starts. In his last two starts he's struck out 25 batters over 15 innings while giving up two earned runs. So yeah, nothing to worry about with Ray here, he will remain a top-ten starter throughout the rest of the year as long as he's on the mound.

Other (less consequential velocity losers): Jack Flaherty (on IL, his season may be over), Dylan Bundy, Brett Anderson, Patrick Sandoval (IL), Drew Smyly, Trevor Williams, Mike Foltynewicz, Rich Hill, Madison Bumgarner

 

Velocity Gainers

Not many pitchers have gained velocity in August (unsurprising), and the ones that have aren't really all that fantasy-relevant right now. Let's just hit them quickly.

Patrick Corbin, Washington Nationals

His sinker has averaged 93.6 miles per hour in August, his highest mark of the year by nearly a full mile per hour. He still hasn't pitched well, however, and he can be safely left on the waiver wire.

Triston McKenzie, Cleveland Indians

Things were getting really exciting for McKenzie there as he had ripped off four really strong starts in a row. However, he surprisingly hit the IL this week, so fantasy managers will be without his services for at least two weeks if not more here. That's a real shame because he had found his 2020 stride again. His four-seamer was averaging 92.8 miles per hour, a solid 1.4 miles per hour better than his season average from the prior months.

Garrett Richards, Boston Red Sox

Another guy that's added a mile per hour to his fastball, but hasn't done much this year to prove his fantasy worth. Leave him alone.

Taijuan Walker, New York Mets

Things are looking up again for Taijuan after he had a really brutal July. Over his last four starts, he's given up ten runs in 24.2 innings, which isn't that exciting but he has faced the Dodgers twice and the Giants once over that time. He was definitely a guy we worried about the workload on, as he has notoriously been a guy that just can't stay healthy. He's already thrown significantly more innings than he has in any season since 2017, so the worry about the arm breaking down was real.

For now, he seems okay and maybe this improved velocity will give some added validation to your decision to continue to plug him in your lineup, especially as that schedule gets a little easier.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Gunnar Henderson18 mins ago

Hits Solo Homer In Triple-A Rehab Game Tuesday
Marcelo Mayer30 mins ago

Hits First Home Run At Triple-A
Caleb Williams40 mins ago

To Spend More Time Working Under Center
Tom Hoge45 mins ago

Looking To Build Off Strong Performance At The PLAYERS Championship
Zebby Matthews50 mins ago

Twirls Five Shutout Innings At Triple-A
Daniel Jones54 mins ago

Anthony Richardson, Daniel Jones To Split First-Team Reps This Offseason
Terry McLaurin1 hour ago

Commanders Interested In Extending Terry McLaurin
Rashee Rice1 hour ago

Expected To Be Ready For Training Camp
Hurston Waldrep1 hour ago

Fans Seven In Win At Triple-A
Garrett Wilson1 hour ago

Jets Plan To Get Garrett Wilson The Ball "As Much As Possible"
Keaton Mitchell1 hour ago

Ravens Have High Hopes For Keaton Mitchell
Angel Genao2 hours ago

Dealing With Shoulder Injury
Derrick Henry2 hours ago

John Harbaugh Wants Ravens To Extend Derrick Henry
Christian McCaffrey2 hours ago

Is Healthy
Clarke Schmidt2 hours ago

To Return April 15 Or 16
Shane Baz2 hours ago

Strikes Out 10
Mike Tauchman3 hours ago

Begins Rehab Assignment
Wyatt Langford3 hours ago

Launches Another Homer
Nathan Eovaldi3 hours ago

Throws Complete Game Shutout
Michael Petersen3 hours ago

Traded To Atlanta
Matt Fitzpatrick3 hours ago

Looking For Consistency At Valero Texas Open
Corey Conners4 hours ago

Continues Strong Form Ahead Of Valero Texas Open
Patrick Cantlay4 hours ago

Eyeing Victory At Valero Texas Open
Reynaldo López4 hours ago

Reynaldo Lopez To Undergo Right-Shoulder Surgery
Gary Woodland4 hours ago

Showing Great Form Ahead Of Valero Texas Open
Akshay Bhatia4 hours ago

Aiming For Repeat At Valero Texas Open
Alejandro Tosti4 hours ago

A Volatile Choice At TPC San Antonio
NFL4 hours ago

Tush Push Unlikely To Be Banned For 2025 Season
Xavier Legette4 hours ago

Dave Canales Compares Xavier Legette To DK Metcalf
Brett de Geus5 hours ago

Phillies Claim Brett de Geus Off Waivers From Marlins
New York Giants5 hours ago

Ty Summers Re-Signs With New York
Nick Mears5 hours ago

Beginning Rehab Assignment At Triple-A
Aaron Civale5 hours ago

Plays Catch On Tuesday
Masataka Yoshida5 hours ago

Resumes Swinging
Sam Ehlinger5 hours ago

Signs One-Year Deal With Denver
Liam Hendriks5 hours ago

Resumes Throwing
Guerschon Yabusele5 hours ago

Out Against Knicks
Kutter Crawford5 hours ago

Hasn't Faced Hitters
Karl-Anthony Towns5 hours ago

Sits Out Tuesday's Game
Arizona Cardinals5 hours ago

Calais Campbell Returns To Arizona
Lucas Giolito5 hours ago

To Make A Rehab Start On Wednesday
Jevon Carter5 hours ago

Ruled Out Tuesday
Dalen Terry5 hours ago

Unavailable Against Raptors
Brayan Bello5 hours ago

To Make Rehab Start On Tuesday
Julian Phillips6 hours ago

Out On Tuesday
Alexis Díaz6 hours ago

Alexis Diaz Throws Live BP On Tuesday
Jalen Smith6 hours ago

Available Against Raptors
Lonzo Ball6 hours ago

Still Out On Tuesday
Kevin Huerter6 hours ago

Cleared For Tuesday's Matchup
Josh Giddey6 hours ago

Will Play On Tuesday
Dalano Banton6 hours ago

Starting Against The Hawks
Royce O'Neale6 hours ago

Unavailable Against Bucks
Jerami Grant6 hours ago

Out Again On Tuesday
Bradley Beal6 hours ago

Out On Tuesday
Ron Holland II6 hours ago

Tagged With A One-Game Suspension Tuesday
Anfernee Simons6 hours ago

Ruled Out Versus The Hawks
Trae Young6 hours ago

Officially Available Tuesday
Marcus Sasser6 hours ago

Suspended For One Game On Tuesday
Giannis Antetokounmpo6 hours ago

Will Play On Tuesday
Jimmy Snuggerud6 hours ago

Ready For NHL Debut Tuesday
Isaiah Stewart7 hours ago

Suspended For Two Games On Tuesday
Jacob Trouba7 hours ago

Set To Rejoin Ducks Lineup Tuesday
Jonathan Kuminga7 hours ago

Ruled Out On Tuesday
Troy Terry7 hours ago

On Track To Play Tuesday
Jaylen Brown7 hours ago

Questionable Versus Miami
Jonathan Marchessault7 hours ago

Remains Out Against Blue Jackets
Alex Laferriere7 hours ago

Expected To Return On Tuesday
Luke Schenn7 hours ago

A Game-Time Decision Tuesday
Dante Fabbro7 hours ago

Returns Against Predators
Detroit Lions9 hours ago

Alim McNeill Could Miss Start Of Regular Season
Tennessee Titans10 hours ago

Justin Hardee Sr. Returning To Titans
Washington Commanders10 hours ago

Brandon Coleman Moving To Right Tackle For Commanders
Raheem Blackshear10 hours ago

Returning To Carolina
Kirk Cousins10 hours ago

Not Expected To Attend Voluntary Offseason Training
NFL10 hours ago

NFL Ownership Votes To Move Kickoff Touchbacks To 35-Yard Line
Olli Määttä10 hours ago

Olli Maatta A Game-Time Call On Tuesday
Jordan Greenway10 hours ago

Remains Sidelined On Tuesday
Dallas Cowboys11 hours ago

Cowboys Willing To Make Micah Parsons The Highest-Paid Non-QB
Jordan Staal11 hours ago

Doubtful For Wednesday
Matt Roy11 hours ago

Not Traveling With Team
Geno Smith11 hours ago

Raiders Working On Extension With Geno Smith
Josh Norris11 hours ago

Not Traveling With The Team On Tuesday
Brady Tkachuk11 hours ago

Not Playing On Tuesday
Jordan Spieth13 hours ago

Needs To Find Consistency At TPC San Antonio
Jake Knapp13 hours ago

Making First Appearance At Valero Texas Open
Michael Kim13 hours ago

Looking To Find The Magic Again In San Antonio
Tommy Fleetwood13 hours ago

Is Nearly A Must-Play At Valero Texas Open
Tony Finau13 hours ago

Hoping For Better Approach Play In San Antonio
Eric Cole14 hours ago

Trending In Right Direction Ahead Of Valero
Casey DeSmith17 hours ago

Sharp In Monday's Victory
Mason Marchment17 hours ago

Tallies Two Helpers On Monday
Adam Klapka17 hours ago

Tallies Two Points In Shootout Victory
Ivan Fedotov18 hours ago

Sharp Against Nashville
Matvei Michkov18 hours ago

Continues Hot Stretch On Monday
Luke Hughes18 hours ago

Scores Goal, Adds Assist In Victory
Sam Stevens1 day ago

Enjoys Nice Result In Houston
PGA1 day ago

J.T. Poston Seeks To Contend At Valero Texas Open
Denny McCarthy1 day ago

Keeps Making Cuts But Needs To Make More Putts
Brian Harman1 day ago

Off To A Subpar 2025 So Far
Ilya Samsonov1 day ago

Nursing An Upper-Body Injury
Tomas Hertl1 day ago

To Sit Out At Least One More Week
Ryan Preece1 day ago

Has Three Straight Top-10 Finishes For First Time In His Career
NASCAR1 day ago

Bubba Wallace After Third-Place Finish At Martinsville: "What a Great Day"
Todd Gilliland1 day ago

Has Mistake-Free Day At Martinsville, Grabs Another Top-10 Finish
Brandon Moreno1 day ago

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Steve Erceg1 day ago

Losses Third Consecutive Fight
Drew Dober1 day ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Mexico City
Manuel Torres1 day ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Harry Hall1 day ago

Bounces Back In Houston Last Week
CJ Vergara1 day ago

Gets Submitted
Ryan Fox1 day ago

Showing Improvement Heading Into The Valero Texas Open
Édgar Cháirez1 day ago

Edgar Chairez Gets Submission Win At UFC Mexico City
Vince Morales1 day ago

Drops Decision At UFC Mexico City
Raul Rosas Jr.1 day ago

Gets Decision Win At UFC Mexico City
Saimon Oliveira1 day ago

Still Winless In The UFC
David Martinez1 day ago

Wins His UFC Debut
Kevin Borjas1 day ago

Earns His First UFC Win
Ronaldo Rodríguez1 day ago

Ronaldo Rodriguez Suffers His First UFC Loss
Joel Dahmen1 day ago

Scores Top-20 Finish At Texas Children's Houston Open
Jacob Bridgeman1 day ago

Had Some Rest Heading Into The Valero
Christopher Bell2 days ago

Powers His Way To A Second-Place Finish At Martinsville
Chase Elliott2 days ago

Strong Martinsville Performance Ends With A Top-Five Finish
Kyle Larson2 days ago

Collects A Top-Five Finish At Martinsville
William Byron2 days ago

Places 22nd After Struggles At Martinsville
Joey Logano2 days ago

Claims His First 2025 Top-10 Finish After Up-And-Down Performance
Tyler Reddick2 days ago

Fails To Place In The Top 10 At Martinsville
Denny Hamlin2 days ago

Silences Doubters After Crew-Chief Change
Ty Gibbs2 days ago

Earns Best 2025 Finish At Martinsville Despite Failing Cool Suit
Ross Chastain2 days ago

Has A Great Day At Martinsville
Chase Briscoe2 days ago

Has Solid Run At Martinsville
Erik Jones2 days ago

Disqualified At Martinsville For Weight Violation
Josh Berry3 days ago

Has Top-10 Upside At Martinsville
Joey Logano3 days ago

Don't Overlook Joey Logano This Weekend
Ryan Preece3 days ago

Could Get First Three-Race Top-10 Streak Of His Career
Chase Elliott3 days ago

Looking To Continue Great Runs At Martinsville
Christopher Bell3 days ago

Wins Pole At Martinsville, But Can He Stay Up There?
Ryan Blaney3 days ago

Fast In Practice But Skeptical About Car
Denny Hamlin3 days ago

New Crew Chief Has Terrible Martinsville Record
Steve Erceg4 days ago

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Brandon Moreno4 days ago

A Favorite At UFC Mexico City
Manuel Torres4 days ago

Set For Co-Main Event
Drew Dober4 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Mexico City
Joe Pyfer4 days ago

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Kelvin Gastelum5 days ago

Set For Middleweight Matchup
Vince Morales5 days ago

In Dire Need Of Victory
Raul Rosas Jr.5 days ago

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Saimon Oliveira5 days ago

Looks For His First UFC Win
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
Tyreek Hill - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Three Aging Fantasy Football Players To Sell In Dynasty Leagues

It's hard to always know when to sell off your aging fantasy football players. Often, it's also difficult to accept that it's better to move on from a player when he's coming off a productive season and still has a lot left in the tank. But I believe it's better to be a year early […]


J.J. McCarthy - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Draft Sleepers

Five Fantasy Football Superflex Quarterback Breakouts, Draft Targets (2025)

If you’ve ever played in a Superflex fantasy football league, then you know how important quarterbacks are in this format. The ability to start multiple stud quarterbacks can carry you to a Superflex title. Unfortunately, finding two such players isn’t so easy. All the top signal-callers come off draft boards first, and that makes it […]


Omarion Hampton - College Football Rankings, NCAA CFB DFS Lineup Picks - NFL Draft

Ideal Landing Spots For The Top 12 Fantasy Football Rookies - 2025 NFL Draft

Then, the NFL Draft continues to inch closer and closer. This is a very interesting class, with a handful of players who could be stars in the NFL and reshape fantasy football leagues going forward. Here are the ideal landing spots for the top 12 fantasy football rookies. These picks exist in conversation with each […]


Jalen Coker - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Eight Best Ball Late Round Value Fantasy Football Players To Target For 2025

Fantasy football is the most popular game in all of sports. It has gone from a paper-and-pen game to a multi-million dollar-a-year one. While redraft leagues are the most popular form of fantasy football, best ball leagues are quickly gaining steam. The best part of best ball leagues is the ability to draft thousands of […]


Abdul Carter - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2025 NFL Draft Rankings: Top 10 Fantasy Football Edge Rusher Prospects

Edge rusher is the most important, most coveted, and most highly-paid position on defense in the NFL. It stands to reason that the most important position in the entire game being quarterback, and by a wide margin, means the most important position on defense are the players that are tasked with disrupting opposing QBs as […]


Brock Purdy - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Picks

Brock Purdy Dynasty Fantasy Football Outlook and Trade Value

Despite becoming the all-time leading passer for the Iowa State Cyclones, Brock Purdy wasn't a highly touted prospect due to his perceived lack of athleticism. The 49ers picked him with the final pick of the 2022 NFL Draft, but Mr. Irrelevant quickly proved everyone wrong. In his first two years, he started in back-to-back NFC […]


Michael Florio's Football Show - Podcast RotoBaller Network

Florio's Football Show: Scouting NFL Draft Prospects!

Michael F Florio goes over some of the top prospects from this years NFL Draft. Florio talks about what he looks for when watching prospect tape and explains what traits translate best to the NFL level. Be sure to also tune into RotoBaller Radio on SiriusXM (SiriusXM channel 87) on Sundays from 6-7 am. You can […]


Najee Harris - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Dynasty Fantasy Football Buy or Sell: Najee Harris, Rico Dowdle, Jordan Mason

One year ago, we discussed the futures of Josh Jacobs, Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, and Aaron Jones as those free agents found new homes. This year's headliners are Najee Harris, Rico Dowdle, and Jordan Mason. Not quite the same. Still, with every transaction come implications for dynasty fantasy football rosters across the globe. Below, we […]


Romeo Doubs - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Early 2025 Fantasy Football Sleepers: Undervalued NFC Draft Targets

While the 2025 fantasy football redraft season is still several months away, there is no such thing as being too prepared for your fantasy draft. Fantasy football is year-round, even for those who only play in redraft leagues. The landscape of fantasy football will change between today and the start of redraft season, with the […]


Detroit Lions Defense, Aidan Hutchinson - Fantasy Football DST Rankings, Streamers, IDP Sleepers

2025 Fantasy Football IDP Sleepers: Five Draft Targets

It's notably difficult to identify sleepers in fantasy football IDP leagues. The skill of the players in question is very important, but situation also plays a large factor, as does a recent history of injuries. Rather than bucketing them into groups, it's better to analyze each one individually, look at where they are in terms […]


Ashton Jeanty - College Football Rankings, NCAA CFB DFS Lineup Picks

Ashton Jeanty's Top Potential Landing Spots For 2025: Fantasy Football NFL Draft Outlook

Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty will enter the 2025 NFL Draft as one of the best prospects in the class. Jeanty just ran for 2,601 yards and 29 touchdowns across 14 games this past college season. Those 2,601 rush yards were the second-most of all-time in FBS history, only behind Barry Sanders's 2,628 rush yards […]


Bhaysul Tuten - NFL Draft Prospects, Rookie Rankings

2025 Fantasy Football Rookie Mock Draft: 12-Team, Single QB

The 2025 NFL Combine has now been completed, so it's worth doing another mock draft to see where everyone stands after the league's pre-draft testing event. Overall, there were a few surprises, but the order of many players will remain the same. The mental domain of the original rankings, which have been fairly set in […]


Rashid Shaheed - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2025 Fantasy Football Sleepers: Later-Career Breakout Candidates

Typically, most NFL players break out in the early parts of their careers. Between the ages of 20 and 25 is when you expect to see the majority of players have their first big season. Some waste no time and put together excellent years while they're rookies, while some need more time to develop. These […]