Later-Round Zero RB Fantasy Football Draft Values

August 29, 2024

Corbin's later-round Zero-RB fantasy football draft sleepers for 2024. His overview of Zero RB fantasy football strategies and running back draft value picks.

Draft strategies like zero running back (Zero RB) can generate uncomfortable conversations and implicit biases. Like any draft strategy, we should consider scoring and roster formats. The idea behind it relates to being anti-fragile when drafting a team. Shawn Siegele referenced the anti-fragile framework and Zero RB as something beyond resilience and improves or grows with volatility.

That sounds like fantasy football, where injuries and other factors make the environment random and volatile, even after analyzing many possible scenarios and outcomes. This is especially true in best ball leagues or deeper formats where it becomes harder to replace the starter at a given position, specifically at running back.

We'll discuss the Zero RB strategy and when might be the best time to deploy the strategy. Plus, a look at seven late-round Zero RB targets using FFPC ADP.

What is Zero RB for Fantasy Football?

Zero RB and antifragility should be synonymous at this point, but drafting a Zero RB team can make drafters uncomfortable. We could argue all day on defining Zero RB, but we'll focus on drafting wide receivers, an elite tight end, and an elite quarterback in the first handful of rounds. RotoViz coined the phrase "win the flex," suggesting we want to dominate the flex positions, which typically include wide receivers.

While we could mine for value in the running back dead zone, it's typically more profitable to draft receivers. We'll preferably use the Zero RB strategy with 0.5 PPR and PPR scoring and rosters with three wide receivers and multiple flex spots. Running backs with projected volume provide the floor, but receivers have the floor and ceiling in PPR formats.

It doesn't mean avoiding all running backs in the first few rounds. Like any strategy, Zero RB should be fluid, meaning we want flexibility with our drafting and rosters because one or two players shouldn't make or break our fantasy squads. For example, several running backs had high hit rates after the first two rounds, including Breece Hall, Jahmyr Gibbs, Travis Etienne, Joe Mixon, and Rachaad White.

The Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC) best ball data shows us the top win rates by position. For context, the FFPC best ball format uses two receivers and two flex spots, which is ideal for the Zero RB strategy.

When using the data from 2017 to 2023, many running backs in the first two rounds highlighted the players with the top win rates. Those names included Todd Gurley, Christian McCaffrey (three times), Alvin Kamara, and Jonathan Taylor.

Nine running backs out of the top 50 players had the highest win rates with an ADP inside the top two rounds. Meanwhile, 14 running backs out of the top 100 players in win rates had an ADP inside the top 24 picks from 2017 to 2023.

Times have changed in the past three seasons (2021-2023), with six out of the top 100 players in win rates being running backs drafted in the top two rounds; all came among the top 50 in win rate. The running backs with the top win rates mostly came from the later rounds, besides McCaffrey in 2023. It's rare to find early-round running backs payoff like McCaffrey.

The only other first-round running backs with high win rates over the past three seasons include Taylor (2021) and Austin Ekeler (2021). Meanwhile, mostly receivers, late-round running backs, and a few tight ends top the win-rate leaderboard.

The recent data aligns with using the Zero RB strategy if fantasy managers feel comfortable building an anti-fragile squad. We'll touch on a few Zero RB targets. For reference, we'll use FFPC ADP since it's a robust group of managers drafting all year round, with the scoring hinting at a Zero RB approach.

We'll use pick 150 as a cutoff point since, theoretically, those might be the later rounds in most redraft formats. Again, it's not meant to be inflexible, but we'll use that as an ADP marker to consider seven late-round Zero RB targets.

Tyler Allgeier, Atlanta Falcons

FFPC ADP 148.2 - RB48

We love Bijan Robinson and his RB1 upside with the rushing and receiving profile. Robinson ranked 14th in EP/G, with a balanced rushing (6.8 ruEP/G) and receiving (7.7 reEP/G). That's typically the profile we target, but we may want to target the backup as a late-round option when a starting running back is going this high in the draft.

Though Tyler Allgeier lacks the receiving profile like Robinson, he flashed some impressive numbers, mainly as a rusher.

When we look at the RotoViz Screener, Allgeier's top comparisons in rushing and receiving EP/G include Brian Robinson Jr., Alfred Blue, and Chris Carson in their first two seasons. Leonard Fournette had a massive output as a rusher and receiver, plus the first-round draft capital, so that's not a fair comparison.

Carson peaked in Year 3 with a career-high in total PPR (240.3), PPR/G (16.1), and EP/G (15.3), ranking 12th-13th in each category. It's worth noting that Russell Wilson and Rashaad Penny ate into Carson's rushing workload, yet Carson handled most of the work. That's the main difference with projecting Allgeier with the Falcons since they have an elite talent as the starter.

Allgeier profiles as an early-down rusher, averaging 2.7 yards after contact per attempt, tied with Robinson. That's a slight dip from his rookie season with 3.4 YAC/Att for Allgeier.

He struggled to evade tacklers at a high rate as in his rookie year, with a 21 percent evasion rate (2022), down to 10 percent (2023). We're not expecting him to force tons of missed tackles because he's more of a tackle breaker, evidenced by his 15.3 percent broken tackle rate (2022), dipping to eight percent (2023).

If Robinson misses time, Allgeier should garner most of the opportunities. The wild card involves whether Allgeier will add receiving work since he peaked at three targets per game throughout his brief career if he becomes the lead back. That's especially notable for Robinson's upside since the Falcons should pass more with Zac Robinson as the new offensive coordinator and Kirk Cousins leading the offense.

Allgeier should be one of the top priorities as a late-round ZeroRB option because the Rams gave 86 percent of their team's high-value touches to Kyren Williams last year. However, the Rams ranked toward the bottom (61st) in team high-value touches since they targeted their receivers at the league's highest rate (68.3 percent).

Jaylen Wright, Miami Dolphins

FFPC ADP 151.1 - RB49

Last season, the Dolphins led the league in running back EP/G, with Raheem Mostert (13.3) and De'Von Achane (11.3) sharing the load. The Miami backfield had the most efficient season in FPOE/G at 8.2 from 2010-2023. The Saints in 2017 had the second most efficient backfield at 8.0 FPOE/G, which was Alvin Kamara's rookie season.

The explosive Jaylen Wright landed into one of the best situations, meaning we want to invest in this backfield, especially when the talent aligns. Wright boasts an elite 92 percentile Speed Score and 98th percentile Explosion Score, comparing similarly to David Wilson, Jerick McKinnon, and Joseph Addai from an athleticism standpoint.

Wright peaked in 2023 with a 30 percent RB Dominator and a five percent receiving yardage market share. While his production profile doesn't pop off the page, he compares closely to Devonta Freeman, Kendre Miller, Zamir White, Darrynton Evans, and Miles Sanders.

However, Wright is an advanced metric darling. That's evident in Wright ranking second in YAC/Att (4.35) and eighth in missed tackles forced per attempt (31.6 percent). Wright ranked third in breakaway rush rate, meaning 52.1 percent of his carries went for 15+ yards, with the fourth-highest yards per route run among the 30 running back prospects in 2024.

Mostert or Achane have battled injuries in the past, meaning Wright could step into a fantasy-viable role since the Dolphins used a shared backfield. That's evident in Mostert's 57 percent snap share and Achane at 43 percent. We'll want to invest in the Dolphins' backfield, and Wright is the cheapest option with Achane-level explosiveness and upside. Make sure he's a draft priority as a late-round ZeroRB option.

MarShawn Lloyd, Green Bay Packers

UPDATE 8/27: AJ Dillon has been placed on IR and is out for the season, elevating Lloyd on the depth chart.

FFPC ADP 161.3 - RB52

The hamstring injury in the pre-season caused MarShawn Lloyd's ADP to dip about eight picks, though we know there's upside in his profile. Does personnel or coaching drive decision-making and play-calling?

Over the past three seasons, Aaron Jones garnered 27 percent of the team's opportunities, with A.J. Dillon at 23 percent. Jones had a 45 percent rush percentage with a 13 percent target share compared to Dillon having a 43 percent rush rate and a seven percent target share.

That's notable because Josh Jacobs joins the Packers, and he combined for 38 percent of the Raiders' opportunities. Jacobs had a whopping 73 percent rush share and a 12 percent target share with the Raiders, which is unlikely with the Packers.

If we're projecting a Matt LaFleur-led team to continue the shared backfield, Lloyd could make an impact as a rookie. Lloyd peaked with a 47 percent RB Dominator and six percent receiving yardage market share in his final college season. He possesses the athleticism we want, evidenced in his 88th percentile Speed Score, though he showed mediocre levels of explosiveness, with a 55th percentile Explosion Score.

Lloyd has juicy underlying metrics, with 3.97 YAC/Att, ranking seventh, and the highest forced missed tackle rate at 40.9 (when we toss out Keilan Robinson's small sample of 12 carries in 2023). He made big plays, with the fourth-highest breakaway rush rate in 2023, meaning over 56 percent of his carries went for 15-plus yards.

Dillon has been brutally inefficient the past two seasons, with -0.4 FPOE/G (No. 113) in 2022 and -1.9 (No. 143) in 2023. Lloyd gives the Packers some untapped upside and explosiveness they're lacking. Keep tabs on Lloyd's hamstring injury because he might be more of an injured reserve stash. At worst, it's a low-risk, big-win move based on Lloyd's profile, given the ADP cost.

Ray Davis, Buffalo Bills

FFPC ADP 161 - RB51

When we toss out age, Ray Davis would arguably be one of the most dominant prospects in this class, especially from a production standpoint. Davis rocks the second-highest career RB Dominator (77 percent) behind Dylan Laube at 86 percent. He tied with Laube for the second-best RB Dominator in 2023 at 82 percent.

Davis was one of five running backs in the 2024 class with a double-digit receiving yardage market share and a 60-plus percent RB Dominator.

The other running back prospects include Laube, Blake Watson, Jonathon Brooks, and Frank Gore Jr. That indicates those running backs were the focal points of their college offenses, soaking up tons of production as a rusher and a receiver, giving them some upside in the NFL.

The visual below shows the team-level rush rate leaders from Weeks 11-18.

The team became more run-heavy when Joe Brady took over as interim offensive coordinator with the Bills in Week 11. From Week 11-18, the Bills ranked first in rush rate (51 percent), tying them with the Steelers. They also ran the most plays per game (71), with the seventh-best offensive EPA/G from Week 11-18.

James Cook accounted for 45 percent of the team's rush attempts, with Josh Allen at 24 percent from Weeks 11-18. The Bills tried to mix in Fournette (18 percent rush share in two games), Latavius Murray (13 percent rush share in six games), and Ty Johnson (13 percent rush share in six games).

Given Cook's 53 percent snap share since Week 11 and 55 percent in 2023, there's a good chance the Bills plan to mix in another running back on their depth chart. Davis might be their best bet, especially since he flashed the fourth-best forced missed tackle rate (30.8 percent) and eighth-best YAC/Att (3.46) through two preseason games.

During the off-season, the team lost Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis while adding Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel, and Davis. That suggests the team may continue to establish the run in 2024, with Allen being one of the best rushing quarterbacks in the league. Since Week 11, the Bills ranked first in rushing EP/G (165.2) among quarterbacks and running backs combined.

However, the Bills running backs ranked 10th in rushing EP/G since Week 11. Cook looks like a solid value at his ADP, and we'll want to invest in the Bills backfield. Take a shot on Davis as one of your later-round running back stashes since he can fill a similar role to Cook as a rusher and a pass catcher.

Khalil Herbert, Chicago Bears

FFPC ADP 176.2 - RB55

D'Andre Swift landed in my middle-round ZeroRB target column earlier in the off-season. However, I may not have weighed enough of the team context and personnel changes.

The Bears added Shane Waldron as their offensive coordinator. Last season with the Seahawks, Waldron's offense ranked fifth in pass rate (63 percent) and the second-lowest seconds per snap, indicating more passing and a higher pace of play in 2024.

That's much different than Luke Getsy's offense, ranking second to last in pass rate (52 percent) with the third-slowest seconds per snap. The team lost Justin Fields while adding Caleb Williams, Swift, Keenan Allen, and Rome Odunze. Though Williams is a target at the quarterback position because he's undervalued, it appears the Bears will lean more pass-heavy in 2024.

Interestingly, Herbert led the team in carries and ranked second in team rush share at 36 percent. Herbert was behind D'Onta Foreman's rush share (37 percent) and ahead of Fields (30 percent).

Williams can provide value as a rusher, but it's probably a good bet that he won't account for the massive team rush share like Fields. That suggests more running back rushing attempts for Swift and Herbert, though the latter lacks the receiving skills like Swift.

Herbert sneakily flashes Swift-like data since he boasts yards before and after contact. That's evident in Herbert's 2.0 yards before contact per attempt (YBC/Att) and 2.7 YAC/Att. Roschon Johnson posted a balanced 2.1 YBC/att, yet only 2.2 YAC/Att, with an eight percent evasion rate. However, it's worth noting that Herbert's 13 percent evasion rate isn't eye-popping.

When we project fewer rushing attempts and a lower team rush share for Williams at quarterback, there's a chance the running back's receiving EP/G improves. Johnson led the backfield with 4.2 receiving EP/G, with Hebert at 3.9.

Meanwhile, Herbert has been the most efficient rusher on the team over the past two seasons, with 0.8 rushing FPOE/G. He averaged 0.29 rushing yards over expected per attempt (No. 18), with the 10th-highest percentage of rushing yards over expected at 41.8 percent. There's an upside scenario where Herbert pops off a few games like Penny, where he mostly relied on the rushing efficiency.

While I prefer Swift in the Bears backfield, Herbert likely shares some of the running back snaps and touches, meaning there's a floor of production as a rusher. Herbert has been an efficient rusher that could earn opportunities if Swift misses time. Johnson would fit in this group, too, as a discounted version of Herbert since he goes about 20 picks after Herbert if you miss out.

Braelon Allen, New York Jets

FFPC ADP 187.6 - RB59

Last season, Israel Abanikanda's profile intrigued us with over 1,400 rushing yards and 20 touchdowns. That led to a 73 percent RB Dominator but a mixed bag of comparisons, including Wayne Gallman, Kendre Miller, Alexander Mattison, and Alex Collins. Hall dominates the backfield with a juicy fantasy workload (54 percent rush share and 17 percent target share).

With Michael Carter gone, Abanikanda looked like the preferred backup to Hall before they drafted Braelon Allen. Besides the early collegiate production, Allen's career RB Dominator of 41 percent and four percent receiving yardage market share does not scream breakout prospect.

In college, Allen averaged a 3.77 YAC/Att (No. 10) in the 2024 class, with a mediocre 24.3 percent forced missed tackles rate (No. 22 out of 30). However, Allen had the ninth-highest breakaway rush rate, meaning 43.1 percent of his carries went for 15+ yards. That sometimes hints at explosiveness in Allen's profile. In the small sample of 14 preseason carries, Allen forced zero missed tackles while averaging 2.64 YAC/Att.

Hall is a tough runner who can make big plays, which might be more evident on film than via the underlying numbers. While the rushing advanced metrics may not blow us away, the team context might. Last season, Hall ranked fourth in high-value touches, meaning there's a good chance Allen could garner a high expected point total if Hall misses time.

The Jets ranked 11th in running back EP/G, mainly from the running backs garnering the second-highest target share at 26.5 percent. Since the Jets don't have a mobile quarterback, there's a good chance we'll see a similar trend again in 2024, with an uptick in efficiency. Allen should be a priority backup, especially considering how the team used Hall, and we can envision a discounted version of that being valuable.

Will Shipley, Philadelphia Eagles

FFPC ADP 233.4 - RB65

The Eagles lost Swift but added Saquon Barkley and Will Shipley. While one could argue Barkley might be the best running back for the Eagles over the past handful of seasons, he may not have the elite workload with the Giants. Over the past two seasons, Barkley averaged 16.8 EP/G, ranking fourth behind McCaffrey, Ekeler, and Mixon. 

Barkley ranked fourth in EP/G (17.4) in 2022 and seventh (16) in 2023. Efficiency has been an issue, with 0.3 FPOE/G (No. 58) in 2022 and 0.4 FPOE/G (No. 38) in 2023. However, running backs often receive fewer targets on teams with mobile quarterbacks.

Last season, the Eagles ranked 16th in running back target share, with the Ravens ranking 20th, the Bills 23rd, and the Cardinals 25th.

Sometimes, it's a mixture of personnel and coaching decisions because the Eagles had Swift (historically a pass catcher), and the Bills had Cook (another effective pass catcher). However, the flip side is true, with the Ravens lacking a running back to garner receiving opportunities given their injuries and personnel.

The visual below shows the running back rush and target shares on teams with rushing quarterbacks that posted a rush share of 15 percent or higher in 2023.

There's an argument to be made that Barkley may have better receiving skills than Swift. That's where rookie Shipley thrived as a rusher and receiver, evidenced by his career RB Dominator of 56 percent, with an eight percent receiving yardage market share. In 2023, Shipley had the eighth-best receiving yardage market share among the running back prospects.

We've seen the receiving skills for Shipley, ranking 10th in yards per route run among running backs with five rush attempts and three targets through the first two weeks of the preseason. Though Shipley's rushing advanced metrics didn't pop in college, with 2.92 YAC/Att and 21.2 percent missed tackles forced in his career, he posted a decent avoided tackle rate on 24.1 percent of his receptions.

We'll want to keep tabs on Barkley's usage, especially since he accounted for 100 percent of the Giants' rush attempts inside the five-yard line, with Swift down at 41 percent (No. 31) due to Jalen Hurts stealing tons of touchdowns.

Last season, the Eagles mixed in Kenneth Gainwell for a 42 percent snap share, though only accounting for an 18 percent rush share and eight percent target share. Gainwell is still around and could be the backup to stash over Shipley. However, we prefer Shipley as the late-round ZeroRB option on the Eagles' offense.

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