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Analysis of five fantasy baseball third basemen drafted in the later rounds. Are these 3B undervalued players and potential sleepers to target in 2020 drafts?
Once you reach the middle-to-late rounds of drafts, it would be smart to consider drafting some upside fliers that can provide a great return on value. You can take a risk or two on a variety of different players, including a prospect, forgotten veterans, players returning from injuries or even players with skills but have playing time concerns. It is important to know the player pool so you can take a chance at a spot in the draft that you're comfortable without deviating from your overall strategy.
Today we are looking at some late-round third basemen who need to be considered. Do we think they are draft targets or players to avoid? Are their ADPs undervalued? Will they make significant fantasy contributions and be one of your later-round draft sleepers? Read on to see our take.
Our editors have hand-picked these specific MLB players for your draft prep enjoyment. Normally only available to Premium subscribers, the five outlooks below are meant to give you a taste of the in-depth analysis you receive with our industry-leading 2020 Draft Kit. Be sure to subscribe today and start reading all 400+ of our 2020 player outlooks, and many other premium articles and tools, available exclusively in our 2020 Draft Kit.
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Tommy Edman - 2B/3B, St. Louis Cardinals
Tommy Edman emerged as another St. Louis middle infielder to seemingly come out of nowhere. Edman’s rookie season featured a .304 batting average, 11 home runs, 59 R, 36 RBI, and 15 steals. While his walk rate (4.6%) might have been lower than ideal, Edman features a 60-grade hit tool, and has the potential to swipe 25 bags this summer. Those attributes make Edman an interesting mid-round option at second and third despite the small sample size, a lack of pedigree, and modest power.
Edman may offer more pop than his scouting report suggests. In 141 games between AAA and MLB, Edman slugged 18 HR. The new ball certainly had something to do with that power output, but if Edman is an everyday starter for the Cardinals his ISO projection would make him a 14-homer player. That along with his batting average, run production, and steals could make him a player with top-125 potential. However, Edman’s 137 ADP only partially reflects the uncertainty around him.
The ceiling is probably top-100, but the floor is a player who needs to be dropped. To his credit, Edman was a consistent performer through the minors, and the Cardinals believe he’s an everyday MLB player. Look for a season with a .290 BA, 14 HR, 85 R, 75 RBI, and 19 SB.
Ryan McMahon - 2B/3B, Colorado Rockies
Ryan McMahon finished the 2019 season with a .250/.329/.450 slash line, adding 24 homers, 83 RBI, 70 runs scored and five steals over 539 at-bats. He set the franchise record for homers by a primary second baseman. The Rockies' 25-year-old slugger was a second-half monster, bashing 17 of his bombs following the All-Star break.
McMahon certainly impressed at the plate in his first year with regular playing time, sporting a 47.7% hard-hit rate (28th in MLB), 27% HR/FB rate, .342 wOBA, .200 ISO, and a 10.4% walk rate. On the negative side, he ranked very low with a 9% barrels per batted ball event rate and his 29.7% strikeout rate is a bit alarming.
He projects to serve as the team's primary second baseman again this season, though he can play (and is eligible at) first base and third base as well. Speedster Garrett Hampson looms as a threat to steal some playing time, but projection sites all have McMahon tallying right around the same number of at-bats as he did in 2019. McMahon is currently being drafted at an ADP of 186.86, but his power profile combined with playing half his games in the #1 park for run (and home run) production are reasons to target him a few rounds earlier.
J.D. Davis - 3B, New York Mets
J.D. Davis did everything the Mets and fantasy owners could have asked of him in 2019: He hit .307 with 22 home runs, scored 65 runs, drove in 57 RBI, and even threw in three bases without being caught. While Davis started 2019 without a consistent role, he clearly earned his spot as an everyday starter, and there’s no reason to believe he won’t be given that opportunity in 2020.
Beyond the fantasy stat line, Davis improved almost every single one of his peripheral stats. He was more selective at the plate as he dropped his O-Swing rate from a below-average 32.4% to an above-average 27.9% and his overall swing rate from 50.1% to 48.8%. Likewise, when Davis decided to swing, he made contact more consistently by dropping his Swinging Strike rate to 12.4%. The batted-ball data shows a number of other improvements as well.
Davis improved his GB/FB ratio and hit more balls with authority while relying on pull power less often. The result was a .383 xwOBA that was good enough for 23rd on the leaderboard. Among full-time starters, Davis will have the best xwOBA versus ADP (173) of any player in the draft. Given the Mets’ current roster construction, expect Davis to get 150 starts while providing a .285 BA, 28 HR, 85 R, 95 RBI, and 4 SB.
Gio Urshela - 3B, New York Yankees
Urshela erupted in 2019 after previously mediocre production with Cleveland and Toronto. He delivered 21 home runs, 74 RBI, 73 runs and a .314 batting average in a career-high 442 at-bats last season. The question now is how much of that increased production is real?
The 28-year-old had a HR/FB rate of 17.5% and a .349 BABIP, both of which were far-and-away career bests. Some of that improvement can be traced to a hard-hit rate (44.0%) nearly twice his previous career average, and to an increase in his contact rate (79.6%). Though he has a quality strikeout rate (18.3%), one thing to keep an eye on is his tendency to chase pitches (41.8%).
When looking ahead to 2020, it would be unreasonably optimistic to expect Urshela to maintain the same rates in a full-time role. Nonetheless, Urshela has an opportunity to start the season as the regular third baseman. The Yankees will look toward different avenues to play Miguel Andujar. Even with similar production as 2019, Urshela could provide value in a corner infield slot worthy of his current 233 ADP.
Brian Anderson - 3B, Miami Marlins
Brian Anderson didn't quite take the step forward that many in the organization hoped he would in his third season. Anderson finished 2019 with a .261/.342/.468 slash line that represented a step back in average and on-base percentage. His slugging did rise along with his hard-hit rate of 45.7% which was a three-point jump from the previous year.
The fact that Anderson reached the 20-homer mark in 126 games should give hope that he could jump to 25 or more taters if he can stay healthy. Of course, much of the concern surrounding Anderson's fantasy value is tied to his team context. The Marlins finished 29th in runs scored, which hurts the R+RBI potential of any player in the lineup.
If new additions Jonathan Villar, Corey Dickerson, and Jesus Aguilar can inject life into the offense, Anderson could increase his value. As it stands, his solid but unspectacular counting stats make him slightly above replacement level in roto leagues. He is more appealing in points leagues for the fact he's hit 67 doubles and taken 30 HBP over the last two seasons. There's no need to reach on Anderson though, as he is currently going 245th in NFBC drafts, after other options at the hot corner like Gio Urshela and Yandy Diaz.
