Late-Round Starting Pitchers - Fantasy Baseball Draft Values and Targets

March 27, 2022

Analysis of five fantasy baseball starting pitchers to draft in the late rounds. Potential 2022 fantasy baseball sleepers and undervalued SP to target in drafts.

Welcome officially to the 2022 fantasy baseball season! Now that an MLB deal is in place, a lot more fantasy drafts will be taking place -- and we're here as always to guide you through it. Once you reach the late rounds of drafts, everyone is looking to draft players with upside that can provide a great return on value. You can afford to start taking a risk or two on a variety of different players, including emerging prospects, overlooked veterans, players returning from injury, or even talented players who may have some playing time concerns. The early rounds are critical and the middle rounds shape the core of your starting squad, but the late rounds are where you have the opportunity to select hidden gems who can play a huge role for your fantasy team.

Today, we're looking at some late-round starting pitchers for you to consider drafting in your season-long leagues this season. Are their ADPs undervalued? Will they make significant fantasy contributions and become a late-round sleeper draft target that you're going to want to prioritize? Read on to see our take.

Our editors have hand-picked these specific MLB players for your draft prep enjoyment. Normally only available to Premium subscribers, the five outlooks below are meant to give you a taste of the in-depth analysis you receive with our industry-leading 2022 Draft Kit. Be sure to subscribe today and start reading all of our in-depth 2022 player outlooks, and many other premium articles and tools, available exclusively in our 2022 Draft Kit.

Jose Urquidy, Houston Astros

Houston Astros pitcher Jose Urquidy was efficient despite being limited with shoulder discomfort in 2021. He posted an 8-3 record with a 3.62 ERA, 4.01 xERA,0.99 WHIP, 4.14 FIP, and 90 strikeouts over 107 innings. The 26-year-old isn't an elite strikeout pitcher (32nd percentile in K%) but has excellent command, as evidenced by last year's 96th percentile walk rate. He should limit any self-damage by using his four-pitch arsenal, led by his great changeup.

The right-hander's lack of durability is concerning, as he's only thrown for 100-plus innings just once in his career. ATC projects Urquidy with a 9-7 record, 10 quality starts, 4.25 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and 120 strikeouts over 137 innings in 2022. According to Rotoballer's Expected Draft Values, ATC's projections have Urquidy roughly fair value at his ADP of 214. Urquidy will provide good ratios and is solid SP 4/5 in upcoming fantasy drafts despite the lack of durability.

--Brad Camara - RotoBaller

John Means, Baltimore Orioles

Few pitchers started the 2021 season as hot as John Means did. Through his first 71 innings, Means posted a 2.28 ERA with a 0.85 WHIP, and he did that while striking out nearly a batter per inning (69 strikeouts in those innings). After that, an injury cost him some time and he never recovered. He sputtered to the finish line and his season line ended with a worse but still solid 3.62 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 22.7% K% and a 4.4% BB%. For his career, he has been decent at best for fantasy purposes with a 3.82 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and a 21.2% K%.

The knock has been that low strikeout rate, which can really hurt in certain league setups. One thing really working in his favor for 2022 is the fact that Camden Yards moved the left-field fences back as much as 30 feet and raised the height of them five feet as well. This should reduce the home runs allowed for Means, which is a big deal because that has been an issue for him in his career (1.70 HR/9). Means seems like a pretty good investment for 2022 at his cheap current price of 219, as his elite walk rate keeps the WHIP down, and the movement of the fences may help significantly improve the ERA.

-- Jon Anderson - RotoBaller

Patrick Sandoval, Los Angeles Angels

Los Angeles pitcher Patrick Sandoval (back) started last season in the minors and was called up to the big leagues in early May. He was initially used as a swingman then eventually was promoted to the starting rotation. In August, Sandoval's season was cut short after sustaining a left lumbar spine stress reaction. The 25-year-old has electric stuff, posting a 3.62 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 15.5and 94 strikeouts over 87 innings in 2021. He limited the damage with a 51% ground ball rate and owned a career-high 25.9 K%.

Sandoval is expected to fully recover from his back issue and projects to be the team's third starter in a six-man rotation behind Shohei Ohtani and Noah Syndergaard. The Angels right-hander can rack up the strikeouts, and Cutter's projections are on board, predicting 166 punch-outs over 151 innings. According to Rotoballer's Expected Draft Values, Sandoval is roughly fair value at 212 ADP. With an elite 15.2% swinging-strike rate and the ability to shut down hitters, there's some injury risk, but Sandoval could smash value at his current ADP.

--Brad Camara - RotoBaller

Alex Wood, San Francisco Giants

After failing to exceed 50 innings pitched in 2019 and 2020 combined thanks to a litany of back problems, the 2021 version of San Francisco Giants left-hander Alex Wood reminded us all of the pitcher who posted a sub-3.90 ERA in 6 straight seasons from 2013 to 2018. His 2021 featured a better-than-average 26 K%, 6.7 BB%, a worm-burning 50.8% ground ball rate, 3.83 ERA, and 3.90 xERA over 138 2/3 inning in 2021. Wood is a risk/reward option as the biggest concern with the southpaw has always been health.

San Francisco rewarded him with a two-year, $10 million contract and ATC/Cutter projection systems generally expect more of the same in 2022, with both projecting him for an ERA slightly under 4.00. ATC projects the 31-year-old with a 3.91 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and 135 strikeouts over 138 innings in 2022. According to Rotoballer's Expected Draft Values, the 31-year-old is excellent value at his current ADP 0f 236, making him a solid selection after pick 200 in upcoming fantasy drafts.

-- Jordan Rosenblum - RotoBaller

Joe Ryan, Minnesota Twins

Starting pitcher Joe Ryan made his Major League debut in September for the Twins after coming up as a pre-2020 top-100 prospect for the Rays according to Baseball America. His first four starts were solid but he ended on a sour note, allowing six runs to the Tigers in his final outing. That led to a slightly inflated 4.05 ERA that masked an excellent 0.79 WHIP and 30-5 K-BB line. On the other hand, it should be noted that his other starts included two against Cleveland and two against the Cubs, both bottom-10 offenses in terms of team average on the season. Rather than dissecting Ryan's small MLB data sample, it's more important to project his role and team context. Ryan was stuck behind multiple pitching prospects in Tampa, a team notorious for using pitchers in non-traditional roles and shortening their usage.

Now, on a rebuilding Twins club that no longer has Jose Berrios or Michael Pineda, 25-year-old Ryan has a chance to establish himself near the top of the rotation. The offense didn't lose any key pieces beyond Nelson Cruz at last year's trade deadline but it was mediocre and may remain so. Early Steamer projections have him winning nine games and posting a 4.36 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and 148 K in 142 IP. He will be a later-round pick with upside that can be found just inside the top 200 overall players.

-- Pierre Camus - RotoBaller

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