Late-Round QBs With Upside and Safe QBs to Avoid

June 7, 2020

Michael Florio gives fantasy football owners the players that fit his draft strategy of avoiding safe, low-ceiling players in the later rounds, this time focusing on quarterbacks.

I will be exploring a new strategy in fantasy football this season. I will be looking to build a safe base in the early rounds and then looking to avoid safe floor players who offer little upside afterwars. I recently broke down the strategy and both why/how I will be implementing it this fantasy football season.

For those who want a Cliff Notes version here it is: those “safe” floor players that you draft in the middle or later rounds are usually players that you hold onto all year in case a player in your lineup gets hurt or to use them as a bye week replacement. But having to slide these players in for one of your starters is already making your team worse. Suddenly, your lineup’s upside is capped, and you need teams to not have a big week against you in order for you to win. At the same time, you are using a draft pick on those players and then holding them all season. That is a valuable draft pick that could have been used on a player with difference making upside. The bench spots you use to stash them could be used to take shots off the waiver wire. These “safe” players may win you a week, but they won't win you a championship.

But a strategy is just the first step. The next step is identifying the players that best fits your strategy. And that is what I am going to do here! I will be rolling out players that fit the ‘upside’ I am chasing by each position. The upside guys will all be players with an ADP of round six or later. I will also give ‘safe’ players that should be avoided in that range!

Quarterbacks with Upside

The popular approach with QBs in recent years has been to wait and grab one in the later rounds. That was because QB was as deep as it is now, with only a select few standing out from the rest. But that has changed in recent seasons.

There are now seven QBs that I consider to be true difference makers since they have shown the ability to add value with their arms and legs. These QBs have a safe floor each week with the highest ceilings. They are Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson, Kyler Murray, Deshaun Watson and Josh Allen. They are also the first seven QBs off the board. But, the Prescott through Allen crew have been going in the fifth through seventh rounds of FFPC drafts.

There comes a point where the market goes too far in one direction and I think we are finally seeing that with the QBs. These QBs have already finished amongst the best in the league before, many have upgraded weapons, and you already have a good part of your lineup built by the time you have to grab one. These QBs are values. If I miss out on one, then I will likely wait for the names you see below.

Matthew Stafford - Detroit Lions

Matthew Stafford is my favorite QB value this season. He is going off the board in the middle of the 10th round as the QB13 according to FFPC ADP. Stafford only played eight games before a back injury derailed his season, but what a beauty those eight games were. Stafford averaged 10.6 air yards per pass attempt, which was the most in the NFL. Stafford went from being one of the most conservative QBs in the league, when his offense was built around throwing short passes to Golden Tate and Theo Riddick. He became one of the most aggressive, airing the ball out to Marvin Jones Jr. and Kenny Golladay. In fact, he completed 23 passes of 20+ air yards in those eight starts. This highlights how different he played, as he had 23 completions or less of 20+ air yards in five of his previous six seasons (he played 16 games in each).

People may not also realize that Stafford finished as a top five QB in four of the eight games he played last season. He scored 23 or more fantasy points in five of his eight games, although the other three were 15.1 or less. He was the QB4 in fantasy PPG last season. With a new offensive coordinator, we saw a new Stafford. The upside is that those progressions made last year carry over. The risk is the back injury or if last season was just a small sample size (I don’t buy into that). But at his ADP, the upside heavily outweighs the risk.

Daniel Jones - New York Giants

Daniel Jones was extremely up and down last season, but he did flash the ability to have some huge fantasy weeks. He topped 30 fantasy points three times last season, the only QB to do so more was Jackson (7). He also had a 28-point game. He did so by showing the ability to pick on weaker defenses and pick up fantasy points with his legs. The four games he had 28+ fantasy points were against the Redskins, Bucs, Jets and Lions, all four defenses that struggled in 2019. He had less than 15 fantasy points in every game. But, as a young QB, having him take advantage of easier matchups is a positive.

There is something for him to build off of here. He also had three games with at least 30 rushing yards. And, he has some of the best weapons around him. Jones can go one of two ways this season. He can build off of what he did last year and get boosted by the weapons around him and become a weekly starter, or he can remain an up and down QB worth streaming against bad matchups. Either way, with him going in the 10th round as the 14th QB off the board, you do not need to pay for the ceiling. He is a worthy gamble for those who wait on QB.

Ryan Tannehill - Tennessee Titans

Ryan Tannehill went from an afterthought in Miami to a must-start fantasy QB with the Titans. Last year Tannehill 22 fantasy PPG as a starter and scored 19+ fantasy points in seven of his 10 starts. He scored less than 17 fantasy points just once as a starter. Like Stafford, Tannehill was a more aggressive QB last year. He began throwing down the field more, as his 9.5 air yards per attempt was a career high. He averaged a league high 9.3 passing yards per attempt and his 10.4 aDOT was third in the NFL. He also ran more than before, rushing for 181 yards, the most since his rookie season, and a career high four touchdowns.

We know what the upside is - we saw it last year. The downside is he becomes victim to the slow-paced, run-heavy, Titans offense. The Titans offense did not suddenly begin running more plays, or throwing the ball more, they just became much more efficient with the passes. The downside is he becomes inconsistent week-to-week. But as the QB18 in the 12th round, why pass on that upside?

Gardner Minshew II - Jacksonville Jaguars

Gardner Minshew II may get a ton of love cause of the 'stache and the way he dresses, but he should get more love for being a fantasy contributor. Last season he rushed for 25+ yards in eight games, the fifth most of all QBs. He scored 16 fantasy points in eight of his 12 starts. But that is not why I am excited about Minshew. It is the fact that he can run the ball, that he plays on a team that is projected to be one of the worst in the NFL with a bad defense, meaning he will be throwing more from behind. But, he also gets to play in Jay Gruden’s system now. Why is that important? Andy Dalton and Kirk Cousins both had their best fantasy seasons under Gruden. Dalton finished as QB12 and QB5 under Gruden, while Cousins finished QB8 and QB5.

There is a perfect upside storm brewing with Minshew and all he costs is a 14th-round pick as the QB26 in FFPC drafts.

Quick Hits

QB is so deep I wanted to give you some more of the later round QBs that possess upside. Ben Roethlisberger was forced to miss most of the season after suffering an elbow injury. We have seen him throwing again and the healthier he appears, the higher I expect his ADP to climb. Don’t forget that in 2018, Roethlisberger led the league with 5,129 yards and finished as the QB3 in fantasy.

Joe Burrow looks like the prospect of a generation. He set the college football world on fire and any criticisms of him last year seem knit picky. He is also surrounded by talented weapons and is on a team that could be trailing often. I really like Burrow at his price of QB19.

Drew Lock is like a less talented Burrow in a sense for me. I am not nearly as confident in his abilities as I am Burrow, but the weapons around him makes him hard to ignore. There is a lot of talent on the Broncos offense now, which means they should only elevate Lock weekly. He is the QB22 in FFPC drafts.

Teddy Bridgewater is a QB that I was definitely too low on in my initial takes. I am not a huge fan of Bridgewater as a QB, as he has never really shown the ability to throw downfield or put up big passing game numbers. Basically, I think of him like I would Alex Smith. A game manager who can’t carry a team on his own. But, look at the weapons around him. Not only does he have wide receivers that can be deep threats, he has a ton of speed around him and we could be looking at an offense where the bulk of passing yards comes after the catch. He has more upside than expected because of the offense he plays in. It doesn’t hurt that the Panthers Defense is still in rebuild mode too, which could lead to the Panthers playing from behind more often.

Tyrod Taylor is going off the board as the QB31 in the 18th round. That means he is not going to be drafted in many leagues. The reason is because we do not know how long he will remain the starter with the Chargers, as Justin Herbert is breathing down his neck. But, due to his legs, Taylor will be a value every week that he is the starter. He did average 18.1 and 19.4 fantasy PPG in his first two seasons as a starter with the Bills.

‘Safe’ QBs to Avoid

QBs are more predictable than other positions, so many of the QBs with little upside are already going really late in drafts. But, I will go out on a ledge here with some names that may surprise you.

Aaron Rodgers was once a mainstay as the top QB in fantasy. For years it felt like the Top QB spot was a debate between a revolving door of different QBs or Aaron Rodgers. Remember when it was Cam Newton vs Aaron Rodgers, or Peyton Manning, or Matt Ryan, or Andrew Luck and so on. But now, Rodgers is more of a QB2 for fantasy (although I expect he will be a Qb1 come August). And could Rodgers turn back the block and prove he is his old dominant self? Sure, but he didn’t look like it last year.

Rodgers has averaged 250 passing yards per game or less in three of the last five seasons. He hasn’t reached 30 touchdown passes in a season since 2016. He finished as a Top 5 QB four times last season, but he also finished outside the Top 20 scoring fantasy QBs eight times. That is literally half the games he played. He is on a team that has been building around the run game and added only Devin Funchess to the passing game. Last year, Rodgers threw more to RBs than ever before (8.3 pass attempts per game). He is in an offense that threw just 59.7 percent of the time, the 17th most in the NFL. At 36 years old, coming off of a down season in an offense that likes to pound the rock, I have concerns about Rodgers being more a name than a top end QB at this point.

Philip Rivers will be playing for a team other than the Chargers for the first time in his career. For years Rivers was being overlooked as a fantasy asset, but that changed last year. Rivers averaged 14.72 fantasy PPG last season, the lowest in any season for him since 2012. He threw 20 interceptions, the second most of his career. For most of last season, Rivers looked washed. I know this, because I have been riding him in a superflex draft for years and last year… was not good. He scored less than 15 fantasy points nine times and less than 13 fantasy points in eight games. That is an extremely low floor for a QB. It doesn’t help that the ceiling is pretty low too.

He topped 20 fantasy points just four times last year and never reached 25. Maybe the Colts offensive line can keep him upright and maybe Frank Reich can make him fantasy relevant again. But to me, the risk out weights the reward. Add in that he is 38 and gives you nothing with his legs, he is nothing more than a back-end QB2 to me.

Jimmy Garoppolo is someone I just cannot get excited about in fantasy football. First of all, he plays for a team that wants to run the ball and rely on their elite defense. Last year, the Niners threw the ball on just 50.8 percent of their plays. The only team with less, was the Ravens. Jimmy G had a stretch from Week 9 through 14 where he had three games with 28+ fantasy points. But, he had just two games with more than 15 fantasy points the rest of the season. He had 13 fantasy points or less in 10 games. Half of his games played he did not finish as a top-20 QB.

Oh and wait, there’s more. Last season, 55.1 percent of Garoppolo’s passing yards came after the catch. That was the most in the NFL and only seven QBs had at least 50 percent of their yards come after the catch. That number will be high again this year given the Niners offense, but I am not really interested in a QB that does not air the ball out, does not run, and has a super low floor most weeks. This is not a knock on Jimmy G as a QB (some people take that very seriously!) but more a knock on him as a fantasy asset.

If you have any questions, make sure to follow me on Twitter, @MichaelFFlorio.

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