Late Round Fantasy Football Draft Picks Who Will Outperform Their ADP - Khalil Herbert, Jaylen Warren, Kenneth Gainwell, more

Ryan's must-have potential breakout players for 2023. Later-round sleepers and ADP value picks for 2023 fantasy football drafts.

We're now knee-deep in fantasy draft season and that means it's time to cram in some player research the night before the draft. Similar to what I was doing in college half the time before an exam. Though I'm not here to instruct you to draft Patrick Mahomes first overall in a Superflex league, or that Christian McCaffery is good value at No. 5 in PPR. This is about finding value in the latter half of the draft. The rounds where the shine of the Justin Jeffersons, Chris Olaves, and Nick Chubbs has fully worn off.

If your early-round picks don't pan out then it's tougher to compete with the best, but finding some of the late-round gems that bust out every year makes it achievable. Of course, you can always do both and dominate your league, but a lot of the time fantasy football comes down to depth and keeping yourself afloat through strategic decisions.

Finding those diamonds in the rough on draft night can give you an early advantage over your fellow league mates. Last year it was Christian Kirk in the ninth or Justin Fields in the 13th. The year before it was Jalen Hurts in the tenth and Tony Pollard in the 12th. Here are a few of my favorite later-round targets for the 2023 season. (ADPs referenced in this article are based on draft data from FFPC).

Khalil Herbert, RB, Chicago Bears

ADP: 97.2

It’s no secret that the Bears have a crowded backfield. They just signed D’Onta Foreman this offseason, who is amid a career resurgence after successful stints in Tennessee and Carolina. Chicago also selected versatile bruiser Roschon Johnson in the fourth round of the 2023 NFL draft. He has been receiving the usual rookie camp praise. Travis Homer comes over from Seattle where he spent the last three seasons used almost exclusively on third-downs and special teams. 

The best of the bunch is third-year back Khalil Herbert, who will start the season as the RB1 in Chicago. He's going in the ninth round of drafts. Herbert has been far and away the Bears' most effective rusher over the past two years, and finally gets his shot at being “the guy.”

At 5’9”, 212 lbs., he’s neither an extreme punisher nor a burner (4.55 40-yard dash). He’s shifty for his frame and incredibly hard to bring down. It was a disservice to keep feeding David Montgomery last season when Herbert was clearly the more productive back, yet the Bears coaching staff still opted to give their third-round pick the bulk of the work.

The former Virginia Tech standout was No. 1 in the NFL amongst running backs in YPC (minimum of at least 100 carries last season) with 5.7. This was over a third of a yard greater than the next closest (Aaron Jones - 5.3) and almost two whole yards above Montgomery (4.0).

Herbert had 72 fewer rushes but only 70 fewer yards on the ground than Montgomery last season. He ranked ahead of him in several other metrics - juke rate, true yards per carry, and fantasy points per opportunity. He was also second league-wide in rushing yards after contact per attempt, according to Fantasy Points Data. 

The big knock on Herbert is that he doesn’t add a ton of value as a receiver.  A fair argument to make for those in full-PPR formats, but Herbert also hasn’t been given a legitimate shot at being the alpha back in this offense. If the preseason is any indication, he is going to get plenty of third-down work.

The only thing I would modify here is that he has legitimate RB1 upside. I absolutely love the talent of Herbert and believe he can excel as the leading man in one of the most run-heavy offenses in the NFL. Sure Justin Fields will steal some work with his designed runs, but there will still be plenty on the table for Herbert to feast. If he stays healthy, Herbert should decimate his 9th-round ADP and could flirt with top-12 RB numbers by season’s end. Don’t be afraid to snag him in the 6th or 7th round. He's my favorite value pick in 2023 drafts.

Jaylen Warren, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers

ADP: 122.9

Warren was one of the lone bright spots in a disappointing offense for Pittsburgh last season. As an undrafted free agent, the Oklahoma State product was able to grind out a roster spot and was extremely productive when he saw game action. He was only given 77 carries but turned those into 379 rushing yards and one touchdown, while also bringing in 28 of 33 balls for an additional 214 yards.

While Warren is stuck behind one of the NFL’s most durable young players in Najee Harris – a former first-round pick who has not missed a full collegiate or professional game – he did more with less. Warren averaged 0.85 fantasy points per opportunity, which ranked #18 overall amongst running backs.

In contrast, Harris scored 0.69 points per opportunity behind the same offensive line, which ranked #63. This means that Warren was much more efficient when he got the ball on the ground and through the air. His rushing yards after contact per attempt also bested Najee who is known for his ability to shed tacklers, and was on par with fantasy studs such as Travis Etienne and Dalvin Cook.

In his first season with limited opportunities, a terrible offensive line, and sub-par quarterback play, Warren was efficient when he was called upon and earned himself more touches for this coming season. He’s even drawn comparisons to a young Austin Ekeler, which is lofty but understandable considering the fact that both were UDFAs with the same build and have almost identical early-career situations.

Warren also has little to no competition on his claim to the RB2 spot. Fourth-year pro Anthony McFarland returns, but he is a mere afterthought having received nine carries combined over the past two seasons. The organization also chose not to draft a running back this past spring or make any big free-agent splashy pickups with flashy vets Ezekiel Elliot, Dalvin Cook, and Kareem Hunt on the open market. 

The undrafted sophomore back appears to have picked up where he left off, making splash plays with limited opportunities this preseason. He rushed only six times but turned those into 89 yards and two touchdowns over the three-game stretch. This was highlighted by this 62-yard house call where he made All-Pro safety Jordan Poyer look foolish. 

While it’s unlikely Warren will usurp Harris as the primary ball carrier in Pittsburgh, the former has proven that he more than belongs in his short professional career. He is going to be extremely hard to keep off the field this upcoming season. With a mid-12th round ADP going behind players such as Tank Bigsby and Romeo Doubs, Warren is one of the biggest smashes of 2023. I’m taking him a full two rounds early, especially in keeper leagues. If Harris were to miss time, Warren would immediately be a weekly top 10 play at the position. He’s more than worth that late-round flier. 

David Njoku, TE, Cleveland Browns

ADP: 99.43

If you’re tired of hearing another pitch for Njoku as a fantasy sleeper, that makes two of us. But I’m here to tell you that this is the last one you’re ever going to have to sit through because Njoku’s time has finally arrived. 

A former first-round pick out of Miami back in 2017, Njoku is one of the most physically gifted athletes in the league. He was a former long jump national champion in high school. He boasts a 6’4”, 264 lb frame with 4.6 speed, a combination that scouts fawn over. He can also do this:

Njoku’s lack of production has mostly been a product of his situation rather than his play on the field (free Kyle Pitts!). It’s a travesty that the best quarterback he’s played with is Baker Mayfield, who is now on his fourth team in five seasons. Even with Jacoby Brissett leading the offense for 12 games and an incredibly rusty Deshaun Watson filling the QB position, Njoku reached a career-high 58 receptions in 2022, good for eighth in the league among TEs.

With another offseason under his belt to get more acclimated to the offense, Watson should be a much more effective signal caller this season and Njoku will be a direct beneficiary. I would say 70+ receptions is easily within the realm of possibility. 

If you’re worried that Deshaun Watson hasn’t supported a viable fantasy tight end in his career, don’t be. Here are the tight ends that Deshaun Watson has played with during his time in Houston: Ryan Griffin, Jordan Thomas, Jordan Akins, Darren Fells, and Pharaoh Brown. The best finish of this bunch was Akins who ended 2019 as the TE25. No one on this list holds a candle to Njoku from a talent and athleticism perspective. 

The Browns signed Njoku to a lucrative $54.8M deal a year ago which means they fully believe in his talent. Despite having played six NFL seasons already, Njoku is still only 27 years old, making him a fine dynasty target as well. Camp reports have also been stellar for the seventh-year pro, further suggesting that he is going to be a focal point of this offense in 2023. The duo also showed us a glimpse of what they can be this past weekend.

Time for some trivia. Who had the second most red-zone targets last year among tight ends behind Travis Kelce? Hint: It’s not Mark Andrews. If you guessed David Njoku you would be correct. He finished last year with 20, two higher than third-place T.J. Hockenson. Njoku did only have four touchdowns, but Watson’s red zone targets are more valuable than Brissett’s, and part of that is plain old bad touchdown luck. I expect him to double his scoring output from last year. 

At his almost tenth-round ADP, Njoku is one of my favorite later-round targets. With an above-average quarterback throwing him the ball for the first time in his career, look for Njoku to finally break through and challenge for top-five TE production.

Kenneth Gainwell, RB, Philadelphia Eagles

ADP: 139.36

Every year there are several surprise reports that pop up throughout training camps that fantasy managers can either buy or sell. One of the most intriguing stories over the past month or so has been the ascension of Philadelphia Eagles RB Kenneth Gainwell. A 2021 fifth-round pick, Gainwell was an important piece for the Eagles during their 2022 Super Bowl run, averaging about 13 touches per game, a significant increase from what he saw in the regular season (4.5). 

The former Memphis Tiger was a workhorse back at the collegiate level, putting up 1,459 yards and 13 touchdowns on the ground, adding 51 catches for 610 yards and three scores through the air. During his first two seasons in Philadelphia he’s been primarily used as a receiving threat out of the backfield but has also been called upon for spot carries when the Eagles want to get more creative. 

After Philly traded for D’Andre Swift and Rashaad Penny, Gainwell became a mere afterthought in the backfield. That is until reports surfaced that the presumed RB3 was receiving most of the early down work with offensive starters.

Gainwell is currently being drafted as the RB49, in the 14th round of ten-team leagues. If these reports touting Gainwell as the “feature back” are even remotely true, he would immediately be an extreme value pick. Swift should still be the primary third-down back and may even see some time out-wide.

If Gainwell receives that primary work on early downs, with one of the best O-line units in the game he will be able to inflict significant damage to opposing defenses. This means more fantasy points for your team. Grab Gainwell in the limbo rounds - he’s basically free so there’s no risk with a lot of potential reward.

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