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Analysis of five fantasy baseball shortstops drafted in the later rounds. Are these SS undervalued players and potential sleepers to target in deeper drafts?
Once you reach the middle-to-late rounds of drafts, it would be smart to consider drafting some upside fliers that can provide a great return on value. You can take a risk or two on a variety of different players, including a prospect, forgotten veterans, players returning from injuries, or even players with skills but have playing time concerns. It is essential to know the player pool so you can take a chance at a spot in the draft that you're comfortable without deviating from your overall strategy.
Today we are looking at some late-round shortstops you need to consider. Do we think they are draft targets or players to avoid? Are their ADPs undervalued? Will they make significant fantasy contributions and be one of your later-round draft sleepers? Read on to see our take.
Our editors have hand-picked these specific MLB players for your draft prep enjoyment. Normally only available to Premium subscribers, the five outlooks below are meant to give you a taste of the in-depth analysis you receive with our industry-leading 2020 Draft Kit. Be sure to subscribe today and start reading all 400+ of our 2020 player outlooks, and many other premium articles and tools, available exclusively in our 2020 Draft Kit.
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Corey Seager - SS, Los Angeles Dodgers
Corey Seager mostly returned to form in 2019 following an injury-shortened 2018 season that held him to just 26 games. Unfortunately, since Seager's 2016 Rookie of the Year season, the shortstop position has only gotten deeper and more top-heavy. This has lowered Seager's value from the top tier to outside the top-12 at the position.
Seager hit .272 with 19 home runs, 87 RBI and 82 runs over 134 games in 2019. His 44 doubles in 2019 tied Anthony Rendon for first in the national league. His power metrics showed varying results last year. His hard-hit rate was a career-low 37.9%, a big drop from 2017's 43.8% clip. However, his launch angle of 14.1 in 2019 was a solid increase from 2017's 11.1 mark.
Seager is currently drafted around 150th overall, making him a 13th round pick. He is someone to likely start at an infield or utility position rather than at shortstop. Seager's a fine value at that point as he should be able to help you across the board statistically without excelling in any one stat or hurting you in any one stat. He doesn't have high-end shortstop upside anymore, but he should be able to produce enough offense to be a mainstay in your lineup throughout the year.
Jean Segura - SS, Philadelphia Phillies
Jean Segura underachieved, for his standards, in his first season with the Philadelphia Phillies in 2019. He slashed .280/.323/.420 with 12 HR, 79 R, 60 RBI, and 10 stolen bases as some minor injuries limited him to 144 games. Segura disappointed the most on the base paths, but he battled nagging heel and shin injuries in July, which could be a leading factor to his career-low 12 SB attempts.
While his batting average reached a four-year low, it was a respectable number nonetheless, and his swing didn't appear to change enough to warrant the results. His 23.9% line drive rate, 32.7% Hard Hit%, and 88.0 MPH Exit Velocity all came in above his lifetime averages, but yet his .302 BABIP lagged his beginning of the season .320 career mark.
With the addition of Didi Gregorius, Segura will likely move over to second base, but he should remain the primary two-hole hitter for the club. We can't rely on a large home run output, but he'll provide a crisp batting average, sturdy run total, and double-digit thefts, which makes his 184.2 ADP appealing if you miss out on the elite players at the middle infield positions.
Dansby Swanson - SS, Atlanta Braves
An injury derailed Dansby Swanson's breakout season, but there's still plenty of promise to get you back on board in 2020. There were truthers abound during the first half of 2019 as Swanson hit .270 with 17 home runs, 58 RBI, and seven stolen bases. The homers were a career-high in part to a career-best barrel rate (10.1%). However, the dream season fell apart after a heel injury in July resulted in a .204 AVG in the second half without a single long ball in 165 plate appearances.
With an offseason to recover, we should expect Swanson to fulfill his quest for a breakout season. He will likely break the 20-homer mark if he maintains his improved airborne exit velocity (93.1 mph). Also, with three seasons of 10 stolen bases under his belt, you can lock in double-digit steals thanks to his sprint speed (28.7 ft/sec).
Swanson's slot in the lineup isn't set as he slotted mostly in the second and sixth spots last year. However, even if he hits in the bottom third of the order in 2020, Swanson should compile more than enough counting stats to make his current ADP (253) an absurd value.
Kevin Newman - 2B/SS, Pittsburgh Pirates
Kevin Newman didn't begin the 2019 season on most fantasy owners' radar, but by its conclusion, he had cemented himself as an excellent middle-infield option. The 26-year-old slashed an impressive .308/.353/.446 as a rookie, with 12 home runs, 16 stolen bases, and respectable run production in 130 games. He particularly excelled once the Pirates installed him as their leadoff hitter; Newman hit .328/.374/.502 in that role.
Newman may have some competition at the leadoff spot in 2020 from Bryan Reynolds. Even if he finds himself hitting lower in the lineup, Newman offers a plus batting average and 20+ SB potential with decent pop. At an ADP of 197, that's serious profit potential. Shortstop is loaded in 2020, so target Newman as more of an MI option. By virtue of his 20 starts at the position last year, he also retains 2B eligibility.
Luis Urias - 2B/SS, Milwaukee Brewers
Luis Urias didn't accomplish much in his big league time with the Padres last season, slashing just .223/.329/.326 with four homers in 249 plate appearances. However, there is some justification for mild optimism here. Urias posted a 10% walk rate last season thanks to a plus eye (26.8% chase rate), a figure that likely has room to grow if he can convince big league pitchers that he represents any kind of threat.
Urias also has plus contact skills, earning a 65 future hit grade on the 20-80 scouting scale from the FanGraphs prospect team and a 70-grade from Baseball Savant. Urias generally hit .290 or better on the farm, and his 27.2 ft./sec Statcast Sprint Speed could support 8-10 steals as well. Urias doesn't project for any power at all, so he's probably a batting average and runs play at best.
The 22-year-old will also have to beat out incumbent Orlando Arcia for playing time and then earn a spot toward the top of Milwaukee's batting order but represents a nice upside play considering that his cost (308.77 ADP) is far from prohibitive. Add in positional versatility (25 appearances at 2B, 40 at SS), and you get a nice endgame selection.
