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Analysis of five fantasy baseball relievers drafted in the later rounds. Are these RP undervalued players and potential sleepers to target in deeper drafts?
Once you reach the middle-to-late rounds of drafts, it would be smart to consider drafting some upside fliers that can provide a great return on value. You can take a risk or two on a variety of different players, including a prospect, forgotten veterans, players returning from injuries, or even players with skills but have playing time concerns. It is essential to know the player pool so you can take a chance at a spot in the draft that you're comfortable without deviating from your overall strategy.
Today we are looking at some late-round relievers for you to consider. Do we think they are draft targets or players to avoid? Are their ADPs undervalued? Will they make significant fantasy contributions and be one of your later-round draft sleepers? Read on to see our take.
Our editors have hand-picked these specific MLB players for your draft prep enjoyment. Normally only available to Premium subscribers, the five outlooks below are meant to give you a taste of the in-depth analysis you receive with our industry-leading 2020 Draft Kit. Be sure to subscribe today and start reading all 400+ of our 2020 player outlooks, and many other premium articles and tools, available exclusively in our 2020 Draft Kit.
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Nick Anderson, Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay reliever Nick Anderson entered his first MLB season inconspicuously as a middle reliever for the Marlins. He soon turned some heads with his phenomenal strikeout rate that ultimately ranked second among all pitchers at 41.7%, behind only Josh Hader. He was never in the mix for saves, however, and that didn't change with a midseason trade to the Rays. Anderson's ratios don't jump off the page either, as he finished his rookie year with a 3.32 ERA and 1.08 WHIP.
At first glance, he may seem like a one-trick pony but there could be more value than meets the eye. Anderson actually fared better in the second half with Tampa despite a move to the AL East. In his last 21 1/3 innings, he posted a 2.11 ERA and 0.66 WHIP with 41 K and just two BB. All told, his 2019 Statcast numbers support the fact that he was a dominant reliever. His .197 xBA ranked in the 93rd percentile and his .259 xwOBA ranked in the 94th percentile. His elite velocity and control make him an ideal candidate to close games.
Anderson just might get his shot now that flamethrower Emilio Pagan has been traded to San Diego. The Rays are fluid with their roles, but Anderson is still a valuable RP in 5x5 roto leagues because of his strikeout ability and is an ideal target in leagues that count Holds. With a clear path to a closer role, Anderson is a great option that should be available toward the back-end of your draft, around pick 240.
Sean Doolittle, Washington Nationals
Doolittle had a tumultuous 2019, proving effective but suffering from overuse before rebounding in the playoffs. Doolittle had a 2.72 ERA with a 51/11 K/BB ratio over 43 innings through July 24, when he notched the save in each game of a doubleheader. That speaks to his heavy usage, and 10 appearances later he’d be placed on the 10-day Injured List with diminished velocity.
Doolittle's hard-hit rate was listed on Fangraphs as 29.6% in the first half, jumping to 50.7% after the All-Star break. This is backed by the 2.95 FIP in the first half that leapt to 6.39, so Doolittle drafters will need to hope Nats skipper Davey Martinez has devised a plan for 2020. To his credit, Martinez had Doolittle work low-leverage spots in September and then work as usual in the playoffs, allowing two runs and one walk over 10 ⅓ IP. While durability is a perpetual concern with the 33-year-old southpaw, his staff ranking of 142 points to immense value when juxtaposed with his NFBC ADP of 203.
Joe Jimenez, Detroit Tigers
Jimenez emerged as the ninth-inning option for the Tigers after the trade deadline last season, but he found little success converting nine of 14 save opportunities. He finished the 2019 season with an underwhelming 4.37 ERA and 1.32 WHIP, but he provided some fantasy value with 82 strikeouts in 59.2 innings. Jimenez’s results appeared worse than what Statcast said they should have been as his .243 BA and .474 SLG against had expected totals of .215 and .412, respectively.
Jimenez's SIERA also settled at nearly a full run lower than his ERA (3.41), but his inability to keep the ball in the park ended in disaster. The right-hander’s 1.96 HR/9 finished as the eighth-worst mark among all relievers as he only found success in this department with his slider. This delivery was elusive enough to produce a superb 40.5% Whiff% and 40.3% K-rate as only one of these offerings left the yard all season.
Jimenez will remain the closer for the Tigers in 2020, which gives him fantasy value for that fact alone. He possesses a high-strikeout arm, but his volatility doesn’t bode well for shining results in the ratio columns. Jimenez owners will have to surround the 25-year-old with reliable arms if they want to call his name around his 219.3 ADP.
Giovanny Gallegos, St. Louis Cardinals
Gallegos bust onto the scene in 2019 and there’s an easy path to more fantasy goodness in 2020. In his longest appearance at the majors, he struck out 93 batters in 74 innings with a 2.31 ERA (3.05 FIP). Gallegos was dominant, to say the least as he relied solely on a four-seamer and slider to achieve a 27.6% K/BB rate that ranked 15th amongst relievers; his 16.3% Swinging Strike rate ranked equally as well. Gallegos was also able to minimize homers in the long-ball era, allowing only 1.09 HR/9.
Carlos Martinez accrued 24 saves in 2019, but his move back to the starting rotation opens a clear path for someone to secure the closer gig. While there are other options in Jordan Hicks (likely in-season return from TJ surgery) recent fan-favorite Ryan Helsley, and veteran Andrew Miller, 28-year-old Gallegos represents the best option to lock down games. Drafting a reliever with dominant stuff and a great chance to close out games at pick 206 is easy pickings.
Archie Bradley, Arizona Diamondbacks
In 2019, Bradley emerged as the Diamondbacks’ new closer, but the season contained just as much trouble as it did success. For the first three months, Bradley slogged through 38 innings with a 5.21 ERA and a 1.76 WHIP. After making a series of adjustments, the 27-year-old completed the final three months with a 1.60 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP. The underlying splits don’t look as drastic as the two halves, but Bradley’s results speak for themselves. During those final three months delivered a 27.2 strikeout rate and a .186 BAA.
Bradley does offer shutdown potential, but the Diamondbacks also have some potential though uninspiring alternatives at closer. For now, he enters as the established closer whose team expects him to hold that job for the coming years. The Diamondbacks intend to compete, so it’s unlikely Bradley will be traded midseason. Fantasy managers would prefer to see more swing-and-miss ability as well as fewer walks; during 2019, Bradley posted a mediocre 16.9% K-BB. However, Bradley should be cheaper than many mid-tier closers, so he’s a fine option later in the draft.
Bradley’s current ADP is 178, which is a bit aggressive compared to players like Brandon Workman (176), Jean Segura (181), and Luke Weaver (189). For 2020, Bradley will likely offer a season that looks similar to his 2019 numbers but with more opportunities to close out games: 25 S, 3.50 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and 90 Ks.
