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Analysis of five fantasy baseball second basemen drafted in the later rounds. Are these 2B undervalued players and potential sleepers to target in deeper drafts?
Once you reach the middle-to-late rounds of drafts, it would be smart to consider drafting some upside fliers that can provide a great return on value. You can take a risk or two on a variety of different players, including a prospect, forgotten veterans, players returning from injuries, or even players with skills but have playing time concerns. It is essential to know the player pool so you can take a chance at a spot in the draft that you're comfortable without deviating from your overall strategy.
Today we are looking at some late-round second basemen for you to consider. Do we think they are draft targets or players to avoid? Are their ADPs undervalued? Will they make significant fantasy contributions and be one of your later-round draft sleepers? Read on to see our take.
Our editors have hand-picked these specific MLB players for your draft prep enjoyment. Normally only available to Premium subscribers, the five outlooks below are meant to give you a taste of the in-depth analysis you receive with our industry-leading 2020 Draft Kit. Be sure to subscribe today and start reading all 400+ of our 2020 player outlooks, and many other premium articles and tools, available exclusively in our 2020 Draft Kit.
Cesar Hernandez, Cleveland Indians
Cesar Hernandez put together another fine season with the Phillies in 2019, slashing .279/.333/.408 with a career-high 71 RBI. He added 14 homers, 77 runs, and nine steals in his 161-game campaign as he's now played in at least 155 games in three of his last four seasons. Hernandez took significant strides in his ability to hit breaking balls after hitting .215 with one homer off these pitches in 2018. Last season he swatted a crisp .326 BA with five long balls while shaving off over 12% on his Whiff% to a 23.4% mark. The switch-hitter had his highest contact season overall, establishing a career-best 15.0% K-rate, but it came at the expense of a new low in walk rate (6.7%).
Hernandez will call Cleveland home for the 2020 season as he'll take over everyday second base duties while projecting to bat in the bottom third of the lineup. The Indians ran the fifth-most in the majors last season, so the move may help him revive into a double-digit steal total, something he's achieved in his other four full seasons. At a minimum, Hernandez will provide a sturdy batting average with double-digit pop and respectable counting stats, making him a reasonably-priced middle-infield option at an ADP of 288.
Tommy La Stella, Los Angeles Angels
La Stella was an unexpected gem off the waiver wire in the first half of 2019. By the end of May, he was batting .303 with 12 home runs, 34 RBI, and 30 runs scored. It was quite a surprise, to say the least, considering he had all of 10 career homers entering the year and had never even reached double-digit homers in a minor league season. Was this an age-30 breakout or just a case of a player finally making the most of regular at-bats for the first time?
Needless to say, this doesn't seem like a repeatable performance. La Stella's 18.4% HR/FB isn't extraordinary but it is a full 10 points ahead of his career norm and he never displayed power at any stop before. His exit velocity, fly-ball rate, and all key peripherals were either the same or lower than his previous norms. It would seem he simply got hot for a while before trailing off in the second half.
That said, La Stella does still have fantasy value due to the fact he is projected to lead off for the Angels, ahead of Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon, and Shohei Ohtani. That should lead to a fair amount of runs scored and enough hittable pitches that he can serve as an MI option in deeper mixed leagues. If he platoons with David Fletcher or Luis Rengifo, that would prevent him from being a weekly fixture, but the early portion of the season will be telling. The Halos already tried trading Rengifo in a failed deal for Joc Pederson, so it doesn't appear he is in their future plans. La Stella is not worth more than a late-round pick and is being treated as such, with an ADP of 281 overall in NFBC drafts, but is one that could pay off.
Garrett Hampson, Colorado Rockies
Garrett Hampson showed glimpses of his promise during the 2019 campaign despite finding irregular playing time for most of the year. He slashed .247/.302/.385 with eight HR, 40 runs, 27 RBI, and 15 SB in 105 games while showing his versatility by starting at four different positions. Hampson struggled through his first 80 games sporting a woeful .212 BA after hitting over .300 at every minor league stop, but over his final 25 contests, he turned it around as a regular starter. The 25-year-old swatted a shiny .330 during this span with five dingers and nine steals as he earned the leadoff job before the season ended.
With several aging veterans on the Rockies roster, Hampson will undoubtedly carve out a path to playing time, especially if his bat stays hot in the early part of next season. His on-base skills as a minor leaguer (career .383 OBP) paired with his 30.1 ft/s sprint speed that would have finished second among all qualified players, makes him a viable top of the order bat. Hampson’s 169 ADP carries some risk with limited power production, but it has some potentially sneaky value with an expected high SB and R total.
Rougned Odor, Texas Rangers
Odor has been perpetually written off because of his low batting average. Last year he finished with a stat line of .203/.283/.439 with 30 home runs, 77 runs, 93 RBI and 11 stolen bases. While he's hit just above .200 in two of the last three years, he's also improved his walk rate to 9% while lowing his chase rate to 33.1%. His K% may have been high last year, but Odor is actually showing a better understanding of the strike zone. Even if he regresses closer to his career K% of 23.7%, it isn't much higher than the MLB average of 21.7% last year.
Odor has made contact with more power, increasing his barrels each of the last three seasons before this outburst last year. Pair that with an 86th-percentile Hard-Hit% and a nearly five-degree increase in launch angle, and you have a bat that looks like it can provide consistent power. In fact, Odor has hit 30 home runs and stolen at least 10 bases in three of the last four seasons.
With more contact, Odor could put together another 30-10 season with a batting average around .230. If you remove his batting average from the equation, it is enough to give him a rbEDV around pick 110 (23 home runs, 14 stolen bases, 77 runs and 74 RBI). To reach that value he'd need a .261 average, which he likely won't get, but he will hit more home runs than is needed. How much you're willing to penalize him will depend on how your roster is constructed early. If you have a solid average floor, Odor could be a steal going at his current ADP of 224.
Shed Long, Seattle Mariners
The Seattle Mariners acquired Long from the Reds in a three-team deal that sent pitcher Sonny Gray from New York to Cincinnati. Long spent the 2018 season in Double-A where he slashed .262/.353/.412 with 12 home runs and 19 steals. In 2019, he was given an early look in the majors to start the season but struggled with a .232 average in only 19 games before he was sent to Triple-A. A shoulder injury and fractured finger delayed his return to the majors.
When he returned in September, Long took advantage of his opportunity with a .289/.337/.518 slash line, four home runs and five doubles. He was rewarded with the leadoff spot for the final 17 games of the season. Long heads into 2020 as the primary second baseman. He could provide value as a 20-homer, 10-steal threat that could hit about .260. Long is being drafted near pick 532 and could provide similar value to someone like Freddy Galvis going much earlier.
