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Analysis of five fantasy baseball catchers drafted in the later rounds. Are these C undervalued players and potential sleepers to target in deeper drafts?
Once you reach the middle-to-late rounds of drafts, it would be smart to consider drafting some upside fliers that can provide a great return on value. You can take a risk or two on a variety of different players, including a prospect, forgotten veterans, players returning from injuries, or even players with skills but have playing time concerns. It is essential to know the player pool so you can take a chance at a spot in the draft that you're comfortable without deviating from your overall strategy.
Today we are looking at some late-round catchers for you to consider. Do we think they are draft targets or players to avoid? Are their ADPs undervalued? Will they make significant fantasy contributions and be one of your later-round draft sleepers? Read on to see our take.
Our editors have hand-picked these specific MLB players for your draft prep enjoyment. Normally only available to Premium subscribers, the five outlooks below are meant to give you a taste of the in-depth analysis you receive with our industry-leading 2020 Draft Kit. Be sure to subscribe today and start reading all 400+ of our 2020 player outlooks, and many other premium articles and tools, available exclusively in our 2020 Draft Kit.
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Carson Kelly, Arizona Diamondbacks
Kelly was finally given a chance to start in 2019 after years of being a backup and should be one of the top-10 catchers drafted heading into 2020. Kelly, once considered the heir apparent to Yadier Molina in St. Louis, was traded to Arizona ahead of the 2019 season and put up solid, if unspectacular, numbers in his first season in the desert. Kelly batted .245 with 18 homers, 47 RBI and 46 runs scored in 111 games and appears poised to improve upon those numbers in 2020.
The 25-year-old backstop led all catchers last season with a 48.7 percent hard-hit rate thanks to an 89 MPH average exit velocity that was above the MLB average. Kelly also boasts strong plate discipline for a young player. His career strikeout rate is an impressive 20 percent, and last season he was second among all catchers with a 13.2 percent walk rate. This led to a .348 on-base percentage that seems sustainable going forward, giving Kelly more fantasy value in OBP leagues or points formats that reward walks.
Kelly is currently being drafted as the 10th catcher off the board and just outside the top-200 overall. This is a solid value for a young player with upside who has shown the ability to hit MLB pitching. If you're waiting on a catcher, Kelly is a good player to target late after the top catching options are off the board.
Jorge Alfaro, Miami Marlins
Alfaro entered last season with high hopes of a breakout after being traded from the Philadelphia Phillies for J.T. Realmuto. Thanks to the 130 games he played and 465 plate appearances he made, those high hopes weren't entirely crushed, and Alfaro still finished as a top-10 catcher in standard formats. Despite the top-10 finish, all the advanced statistics are telling us to stay away unless something changes in Alfaro's hitting approach.
Among catchers that made 300 PA, the 26-year old ranked dead last among the 30 qualifiers in contact percentage at 64.0 percent, and then turned around and then led the position in swings and misses with a swinging strike percentage of 22.1. That is a lousy set of skills for real-life baseball, and a dreadful combination for fantasy baseball, especially in points leagues.
Alfaro is currently the 12th catcher off the board with an ADP of 209, so there is little-to-no risk in drafting him. Still, there are higher ceiling, younger players going later in the draft like Sean Murphy, Francisco Mejia, and Danny Jansen, that Jorge Alfaro should not be drafted unless you find yourself playing in a 14-team or two-catcher league this season.
Yadier Molina, St. Louis Cardinals
Molina's plate appearances declined for the third consecutive season, as a strained thumb tendon sent him to the IL at the end of May, and then again in July. All told, he hit .270 with 10 home runs across 419 PA, but his .250/.267/.292 line in 75 PA between IL stints, when he wasn't fully healthy, suppressed his overall numbers. Once Molina returned for good in August, he put up a .285/.352/.449 line with six homers in 176 PA. His skills aren't what they once were, but as long as he's healthy, he should continue to get the vast majority of time behind the plate for the Cardinals.
Molina remains a good bet to contribute a solid batting average, particularly for a catcher, along with double-digit home runs. Though he is one of the slowest players in the league, ranking in the fourth percentile in Sprint Speed each of the past two seasons, he even runs a bit. Molina stole six bases in 2019 and has averaged five steals per season over the past five years. Currently being selected as the 14th catcher off the board in NFBC drafts at around pick 234, there's room for profit with Molina this season. Target him in the middle rounds, but realize that at this stage of his career, it's wise to factor in some missed time.
Travis D'Arnaud, Atlanta Braves
Injuries have long dogged d'Arnaud, and his career seemed to be heading into oblivion last year after the Mets and Dodgers let him go. But he hooked on with Tampa Bay and enjoyed a resurrection, as d'Arnaud raised his Launch Angle from 13.4 in 2017, when he last played more regularly, to 14.6 last season. He produced an Exit Velocity of 90.0 mph, and his Barrel % improved to 7.7. d'Arnaud also fashioned a Hard Hit% of 39.5 and ultimately hit 16 homers while driving in 67 runs in 92 games.
The Braves signed him to a two-year deal in the offseason, and the move could curtail some enthusiasm that he generated last season. There will not be any opportunities for him to play first base as he did with Tampa Bay, and d'Arnaud will now have to platoon with Tyler Flowers at catcher. He has never played more than 112 games in a season. d'Arnaud will be 31 years old this year and is no longer with an American League team that can keep his bat in the lineup often enough. His ADP of 248.06 indicates he has regained respect among fantasy drafters, but you should pass on d'Arnaud in that range.
Francisco Mejia, San Diego Padres
As recently as 2018, Mejia was thought of as one of the best prospects in baseball. Now, just two years later, the sheen has worn off, and people are wondering if he can be a starting catcher in the league. 2019 wasn't a terrible season for Mejia, but it was just bad enough to drop him under everyone's radar. He had an underwhelming slash line (.265/.316/.438) but finished with a reasonable 98 OPS+. His counting stats were also low, but he split time all year with defensive whiz Austin Hedges.
Mejia will be a useful fantasy catcher if he can play more than half the season. His ability to see the field thus comes down to things besides his bat. Last year, Mejia was one of the poorer framers in the game, according to Baseball Savant, ranking in the 31st percentile. He may be a major supporter of automated strike calling, but for now, he'll have to learn to frame better or continue to lose playing time to Hedges. For comparison, the hitting averse Hedges ranks in the 96th percentile in pop time and the 100th percentile in framing. In other words, he's roughly the best defensive catcher in baseball.
Mejia has work to do with his bat as well. He needs to cut down on his 45.6 percent chase rate and 23 percent K rate. Currently going as the 14th catcher off the board, Mejia is a bit of a reach at pick 234. There are more proven players with similar playing time concerns available later.
