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Justin Dunbar identifies three hitters who are ready to break out past their prime for 2022 fantasy baseball.
In baseball, common sense would indicate that a player would break out when they reach their prime, which is around 26 years old. However, development is not linear. We have seen plenty of players burst onto the scene with the first or second season and flourish, while others have taken longer than expected to develop. It really does vary from player to player.
Today, we will be looking at players who will breakout later than their prime. All of them are 27-years-old or older, yet are in great shape to produce at a higher rate than expected this season. Since these players aren't marquee options at this point of their careers, they won't be going early in drafts. However, that just opens up the opportunity to find surplus value in the marketplace.
If you draft these players now, you could find some absolute steals. Who are these three diamonds in the rough? Let us find out!
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Tyrone Taylor, Milwaukee Brewers
- Age: 28
- 2021 Stats: .247/.321/.457, 271 PA, 12 HR, 33 R, 43 RBI, 6 SB, 106 wRC+
In fantasy baseball, power-speed combinations are incredibly fun. Players with that combination are the type you can dream of; what if it all comes together? For Tyrone Taylor, that is the hope in 2022.
With a 76th percentile max exit velocity and 87th percentile sprint speed, Taylor has all the tools you're looking for. That played out in 2021, as he stole six bases in just 271 plate appearances and also posted a .210 isolated power (ISO). Considering the Brewers ranked sixth in stolen bases as a team, we can expect Taylor to get opportunities to run next year. As for the power, the signs are all positive.
Taylor's 7.6% barrel isn't "otherworldly" by any means, but he's able to get the most of it with a 44.3% pull rate. Combine that with a 30.3% under, and he has the ideal combination for overachieving his expected power numbers next season. Expect a lot of pulled home runs next season, similar to this:
Meanwhile, with an 87.5% zone-contact rate, Taylor also has the ability to make enough contact to support a good-enough batting average. Combine that with the power and speed he can provide, and there is a lot of upside here, assuming he gets the opportunity to play.
With the acquisition of Hunter Renfroe, Taylor doesn't immediately slot into a starting spot. However, Lorenzo Cain is now 35-years-old and has dealt with injuries, as has Christian Yelich. Add in the expected NL designated hitter spot, and Taylor is in a great position to exceed the playing time he had last year. As the 120th outfielder off the board currently, he's essentially free at the end of deep drafts. When taking flyers in that range, I always want to bet on talent, and that's exactly what you'd be doing with Taylor. Take that chance now, and reap the benefits later!
Yandy Diaz, Tampa Bay Rays
- Age: 30
- 2021 Stats: .256/.353/.387, 541 PA, 13 HR, 62 R, 64 RBI, 1 SB, 111 wRC+
Few things are more frustrating in fantasy baseball than a hitter who hits the ball hard but consistently does so on the ground. Ground balls cannot lead to home runs, meaning that all of that power is being left untapped. When this is the case, a swing change is needed.
In a lot of ways, Yandy Diaz is the epitome of this. With an 89th percentile max exit velocity last year and a 114.3 MPH batted ball in 2019 as well, there is no doubting the raw power he brings to the table. However, with a career 3.9-degree launch angle and 54.2% ground-ball rate, that power is being left on the table.
Fortunately, there are signs that Diaz's approach is changing. Now, it did not start off pretty. With a 58.5% ground ball rate and zero-degree launch angle in April, he posted just a .037 isolated power (ISO), and that continued into May with a .047 ISO. From there, though, he made some key changes to his swing to unlock more power:
YANDY DIAZ LAUNCH ANGLE BY MONTH
April: 0 degrees (58.5% GB)
May: 5 degrees (57.3% GB)
June: 8 degrees (55.5% GB)
July: 12 degrees (41.8% GB)
August: 6 degrees (54% GB)
September: 9 degrees (45.6% GB)
Then, there's Diaz's growth in barrel rate:
As you can see, Diaz made clear strides with his power production, both in terms of hitting the ball harder, and most importantly, in the air. This makes me very optimistic heading into 2022. For perspective, from July 1st on, Diaz posted a .203 ISO, .272/.335/.475 slash line, 10.3 barrel rate, and a 123 wRC+. I'm not saying he's going to replicate those numbers this season, but I do believe there's more power in the tank than his .147 ISO projection from Steamer would suggest. With eligibility at both corner infield spots, he's another great late-round option with more upside and playing time than you'd expect. In the 25th round in 15-team drafts, what else do you need?
Seth Brown, Oakland Athletics
- Age: 29
- 2021 Stats: .214/.274/.480, 307 PA, 20 HR, 43 R, 48 RBI, 4 SB, 103 wRC+
What will the A's look like next year? Since we are currently in a lockout, no transactions can be made, but once that changes, many expect Oakland to trade away Matt Olson and other key players, opening up opportunities for consistent playing time for other players. One of those names? Seth Brown.
Steamer projects Brown to hit 22 home runs in 513 plate appearances, but I find that to be too low. Just in 307 plate appearances, he hit 20 home runs last year, posting a .267 ISO in the process. Additionally, he posted a 13.9% barrel rate, while his 90th percentile max exit velocity showcases his raw power. That's especially important when considering Brown does a great job hitting the ball in the air; he had only a 31.4% ground-ball rate last year and had a 32% under rate. Combine that with his 43.3% pull rate, and his approach is completely geared for power.
What is also encouraging is that Brown's best moments came in the second half of the season. From July on, he posted a 130 wRC+ in addition to a .328 ISO and 17% barrel rate. If Brown does indeed get 513 plate appearances, he should be expected to hit at least 30 home runs next year.
Brown's major wart is his ability to hit for average. His 29% strikeout rate is a concern, while his pull rate and tendency to hit the ball in the air will lead to a lower batting average on balls in play (BABIP). That being said, I don't think Brown is going to sustain a .230 BABIP. Steamer projects him for a .281 BABIP, but even if he can half the difference there, he will be in much better shape to not be a liability from a batting average perspective.
If the A's make the moves that they are expected to make, Brown could be getting much more playing time hitting in the middle of the lineup. With the power that he brings to the table, that's important. If you're looking for a bench stash for power or someone to use against righties in deep daily-moves leagues, he's someone to closely monitor. Hey, we need some positivity coming from this organization!
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